
Who's the Better NBA Prospect, Jahlil Okafor or Karl-Anthony Towns?
It's still early in the 2014-15 basketball calendar, but you'd have a hard time convincing anyone there are two better NBA prospects than Duke's Jahlil Okafor and Kentucky's Karl-Anthony Towns at the Division I level.
And despite both guys sharing the center position, they actually each have very different selling points to NBA decision-makers.
NBA scouts will weigh the safety associated with Okafor's prepackaged offensive repertoire against Towns' versatility and upside as a two-way threat.
It's tough to compare their numbers directly, given Okafor plays roughly nine minutes more a game as a No. 1 option, and they fill different roles for their respective teams. But check out how they stack up when adjusting their stat lines to per 40 minutes:
| FG Percentage | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Blocks | Steals | Usage | |
| Okafor | .646 | 25 | 11.1 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 28.6 |
| Towns | .561 | 20.1 | 15.1 | 3.1 | 5.9 | 0.9 | 23.9 |
Physical Tools
You don't need a scale or tape to figure out both guys measure in awfully well.
| Size | Weight | Wingspan | Max Vertical | |
| Okafor | 6'11" | 270 | 7'5" | N/A |
| Towns | 6'11" | 250 | 7'3.25" | 36.5" |
Okafor is the wider, more overpowering of the two, and that plays heavily to his effectiveness on the floor. On the other hand, Towns gets higher off the ground, and though we don't have Okafor's official vertical, the eye test would say it's Towns who packs a little extra bounce.
Here's visual evidence of Okafor's uninspiring no-step vertical, which results in a guard blocking his attempt at the basket:
On the bright side, Okafor moves exceptionally well for a guy his size, and though he plays mostly under the rim, he makes up for a lack of burst with a tremendous wingspan, strong body and exceptional mobility.
Towns isn't overly explosive either, and at 20 pounds lighter, he's not able to muscle opponents for as many easy buckets. But he's still an excellent finisher, and he's been a glowing target for lob passes early on:
Overall, Okafor combines overwhelming strength with smooth wheels yet little lower-body lift. With Towns, you get a more agile athlete with bigger springs, only less upper-body bulk.
Okafor's Post Game
Okafor's primary appeal stems from his polished, advanced post game, which has been unstoppable so far through eight games.
And it's his ability to consistently create quality looks for himself that fuels his NBA value.
Okafor is at his best playing with his back to the basket. With overwhelming strength to gain position, textbook footwork to separate and giant, soft hands that make the rim seem wider than it is, Okafor has established himself as a high-percentage option to feed against a set defense.
Take away his left shoulder, and he'll spin from his right. Lean that way, and he'll drop-step into a hook the other direction.
He's got an unusually good idea of what he's doing in the post. Okafor senses weakness and ultimately knows how to pounce using both go-to moves and countermoves.
Against Wisconsin and center Frank Kaminsky, a 21-year-old potential lottery candidate, Okafor finished 6-of-8 from the floor while showcasing his bully strength on the block:
As well as his crafty footwork on the interior:
In terms of his back-to-the-basket game, he reminds you a little of Charlotte Hornets center Al Jefferson.
On the downside, Okafor hasn't been as effective facing up—in his three face-up chances against Kaminsky, he missed two tough shots and turned the ball over on the third:
As a shooter, we haven't seen Okafor attempt too many jumpers. Most of the shots he's taken with two hands on the ball are baby jumpers within 10 feet—quick shots that he's able to toss right over the top of his undersized defender.
Except for a 15-foot bank shot Okafor knocked down against Wisconsin, he hasn't shown much of a stretch or pick-and-pop game.
And for what it's worth, he's shooting just 52 percent from the line early on.
Regardless, Okafor has flashed what appears to be the most refined post game we've come across in years. Adding a complementary mid-range jumper would eventually take his game to a scary new level.
Towns' Versatility
While Okafor's game revolves around his dominance in the post, Towns' skill set is a little more diverse.
From the low block to the elbows and even behind the three-point arc, he's capable of operating from all over the floor.
As an option on the interior, Towns has the ability to separate and score with each hand, whether he's spinning baseline, turning over his shoulder or delivering a running jump hook in the lane:
He's got moves—just not the same level of polish. Towns ultimately lacks Okafor's fluidity, decisiveness and feel. Sometimes you'll see him fire without even getting a good look at the hoop, knowing if he waits any longer, his opportunity to score could disappear:
But one of the things that differentiates Towns from Okafor and ultimately powers his ceiling slightly higher is his comfort and touch playing away from the basket.
Over the past two years, Towns has developed a fairly threatening outside jumper. Consistency will take time, but he's not someone you can just leave open.
Towns just hit his first three-pointer of the season against Eastern Kentucky, and he nailed a long two-point jump shot in back-to-back games against Providence and Texas.
Unlike Okafor, Towns can help stretch the defense as a shooter or knock down shots as a pick-and-pop option:
Offensively, Towns brings a little more than just scoring to the table. He's also an excellent passer, both facing the hoop from the arc or elbows and out of double-teams. And he's a sharp ball-handler who can help push the secondary break off a defensive rebound.
At this stage, Towns isn't as good of a one-on-one-player as Okafor, but his shooting touch, passing instincts and handle fuel his superior versatility.
Defense, Rebounding
It's tough to put too much stock into the numbers early on, but the results so far are worth noting.
| D-Rebounding Percentage | O-Rebounding Percentage | Total Rebounding Percentage | Block Percentage | |
| Okafor | 17.22 percent | 16.17 percent | 16.72 percent | 5.4 percent |
| Towns | 25.68 percent | 14.49 percent | 20.69 percent | 17.23 percent |
Towns is averaging 7.1 rebounds a game—0.5 less than Okafor—while playing almost nine fewer minutes.
The shot-blocking statistics have also been pretty one-sided in favor of Towns, who's been a machine, averaging 2.8 blocks in only 18.8 minutes a game.
Quite frankly, it's Okafor's defensive struggles that have stood out more than Towns' defensive prowess.
Okafor doesn't elevate as effortlessly to begin with, but his questionable help-defense IQ and energy have also been exposed at times this year.
Take a look at Okafor trying—or not trying—to defend ball screens on the perimeter on two separate plays against Wisconsin. He's the statue-looking fella standing flat-footed in the middle of the floor:
Towns is no Dikembe Mutombo, but he's looked like the more natural defensive player. And he's starting to earn extra praise from the coaching staff.
"He was more vocal on the court defensively," assistant coach John Robic told reporters after Towns' four-block effort against Eastern Kentucky, via Jerry Tipton of the Lexington (Kentucky) Herald-Leader. "That was probably the best he's been, defensively, as far as talking."
"I've got to be more talkative, especially on defense. Defense is where all my social skills should come out," Towns said.
Who's the Better Prospect?
Just to point out how productive and efficient both guys have been so far, Okafor sports a 29.8 player efficiency rating to Towns' 30.04, according to RealGM.
So far, they've lived up to the hype surrounding them as prospects out of high school.
But the debate for who's the better choice will likely continue from now until June.
Right now, it's Okafor who's the better player. However, if you're a gambler and can afford to wait an extra year or two for results, then it's Towns who could be the more appealing prospect. He's not as dominant in any one area or as NBA-ready, but if he's able to turn the inside-out repertoire he's flashed into consistent post scoring and shooting, he has the chance to evolve into a more multidimensional weapon and tougher mismatch.
The better draft option could really come down to who's making the pick. If I want a guaranteed contributor and immediate starter who offers the least risk, regardless of upside, the answer is Okafor. Cue the Detroit Pistons, who could lose Greg Monroe to free agency, the Los Angeles Lakers and New York Knicks—teams in need of go-to options sooner rather than later.
But if I'm the Minnesota Timberwolves or Philadelphia 76ers—teams who already have interior-oriented centers and no real timetable to make any noise—then I'm going with Towns, who offers greater potential reward as a more complete two-way player.
Realistically, I expect every draft board at the top to look a little different from others by the 2015 NBA draft.
Okafor is the safer option, and he'll be a solid pick wherever he ends up going. But general managers looking to make the biggest possible splash could comfortably target Towns No. 1 overall.





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