Zach Duke Key to Pittsburgh Pirates' Success

Three years ago, I saw Zach Duke pitch against the Mets at Shea Stadium. It was the only time I’ve ever seen him in person, and he was fantastic. He allowed no runs on two hits in seven innings, and more importantly, looked unhittable. His curveball dipping under the bat of left-hander after left-hander.

That game was part of a magical 2005 season for Duke, who went 8-2 with a 1.81 ERA as a mid-season call-up. A lefty with great command and a veteran-like ability to pitch out of jams, Duke was the pitcher the Pirates had been waiting for. He was a future ace.

It hasn’t quite worked out that way. In 2006 and 2007, Duke recorded an ERA of 4.47 and 5.53, respectively. His WHIP was 1.50 in 2006 and 1.73 in 2007. Duke wasn’t an ace anymore; he wasn’t even a decent starter.

This year, Duke is getting the job done again. He isn’t pitching like he did in 2005—There isn’t a pitcher in the majors who can post those numbers over an entire season—but he is making big pitches with runners on base again, and keeping his team in games.

So far, Duke has only given up more than three earned runs twice in eight starts, and has lowered his ERA to 4.04 as a result. He is 2-2 this year, and his team is 4-4 in games he has started.

And that’s exactly what the Pirates need. Duke is never going to be an ace—he just doesn’t have the stuff, doesn’t strike enough guys out. On his own staff, Ian Snell, Tom Gorzelanny, and Paul Maholm all have better stuff than Duke does.

But a team like Pittsburgh, which boasts a much improved offense but doesn’t have the firepower to carry a pitcher, can’t afford to throw away a game every fifth day—few teams can, for that matter. The Pirates can’t survive another Matt Morris.

So Duke needs to continue pitching the way he’s been pitching. Sure, his current 1.61 WHIP is ugly, and his 16:18 K:BB ratio is atrocious. Aside from the high walk number, none of those statistics are uncharacteristic of Duke. He is always going to allow a lot of baserunners, always going to give up a lot of hits.

As long as he doesn’t let too many of those runners score, like in yesterday’s game against the Braves, when Duke allowed 13 baserunners in six innings (three reached on errors), but did not give up a single run, the Pirates will be fine. They won’t all be shutouts, but the Pirates have evolved into a team that can win games where the starter pitches a typical six IP, three ER game.

Now, a lot more has to go right for the Pirates to be successful, obviously. Right now, Duke’s 4.04 ERA is a half-run lower than Snell’s, three-quarters of a run lower than Maholm’s, and nearly two runs lower than Gorzelanny’s. Clearly, all three of these pitchers need to improve—which they have over the past two weeks—and become more consistent.

But it’s obvious that if none of the Pirates’ starters pitch well, then the team won’t win. What’s less obvious, is the need for a guy like Duke, a guy who can hold down the No. 4 spot in a rotation, pitch adequately, and give his team a good chance to win most of the times he takes the ball.

Hopefully, Duke has finally evolved into that guy.