Updated Odds for the SF Giants to Sign Top 12 Remaining Free-Agent Targets
Fresh off their third World Series title in five years, the business of baseball moves on for the San Francisco Giants.
Pablo Sandoval has signed with the Boston Red Sox, leaving a gaping hole at third base and in the middle of the Giants' batting order. In addition to third base, general manager Brian Sabean is also in the market for a left fielder, starting pitcher and right-handed reliever.
The Giants will likely have about $30 million to spend to fill these needs, and it will be wise for Sabean not to spend it all on one player.
Let's take a look at some of the key players the Giants have expressed an interest in and gauge the odds of whether we will see them in a Giants uniform.
Player stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com. Salary and contract data courtesy of Baseball Prospectus.
No. 12: Michael Morse
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Michael Morse was one of those bargain players Giants GM Brian Sabean has an uncanny knack of finding.
Morse was coming off a dismal 2013 season where he battled injuries and never seemed comfortable in Seattle or Baltimore. He signed a free-agent contract prior to the 2014 season for just $6 million.
Morse had a solid year for the Giants in 2014. He got off to an excellent start but slumped in the middle of the year. An oblique injury kept him out for almost the entire month of September. He also missed the Giants' playoff contests against the Pittsburgh Pirates and Washington Nationals.
Morse came back in time for the NLCS and hit a crucial game-tying home run to help the Giants punch their ticket to the World Series in five games against the St. Louis Cardinals.
Morse also came through with some key hits in the World Series against the Kansas City Royals and had four RBI.
For the season, Morse played in 131 games, with 438 at-bats. He hit .279, with an OBP of .336 and OPS of .811. Morse blasted 16 home runs to go along with 61 RBI. Most of those home run and RBI totals came early in the year, however, as Morse tailed off dramatically in the mid- to latter half of the season.
It's likely that the Giants would gladly take him back on another one-year deal. Morse fit in well in the Giants' clubhouse and was also a fan favorite.
Unfortunately, Morse will be 33 years of age prior to the onset of the 2015 season, and he is a defensive liability in left field. Given his injury history, it would not be wise for the Giants to offer him a contract for longer than one year.
Jeff Todd of MLB Trade Rumors detailed the multiple teams reported to be interested in Morse. In addition to the Giants, these include the Miami Marlins, Cincinnati Reds and New York Mets. Morse can also play first base and would be a good fit in the American League for a team looking for a designated hitter.
If, as Todd theorizes, Morse receives a two-year offer in the $22 million range, it will be tough for the Giants to justify that big an offer. A one-year deal would be much more amenable to the Giants, even if they paid in the $12 million range.
Probability of Michael Morse returning to the Giants: 20 percent
No. 11: Max Scherzer
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Max Scherzer is coming off two brilliant seasons, both All-Star campaigns. He won the AL Cy Young Award in 2013, with a record of 21-3, an ERA of 2.90 and WHIP of 0.970.
Scherzer followed that up this year with an 18-5 record, 3.15 ERA and 1.175 WHIP. He threw 220.1 innings and allowed 196 hits and 63 walks while striking out 252.
At the age of 30, Scherzer is looking for a long-term, multiyear deal. Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com has reported that the Giants have expressed an interest in Scherzer, along with the New York Yankees.
Having being burnt by the seven-year deal given to Barry Zito a few years ago, it is highly unlikely the Giants will give Scherzer a deal that spans six or seven years. The very nature of pitching and the stress put on a pitcher's arm makes a contract of that length too risky.
The Giants should not gamble with anything more than a four-year, $90 million deal for Scherzer, and that likely will not be enough.
One other problem with the concept of Scherzer signing with the Giants is that his agent is Scott Boras. Giants GM Brian Sabean detests working with Boras, and that is an issue.
Probability of Max Scherzer in a Giants uniform: 5 percent
No. 10: Nick Markakis
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Nick Markakis is a solid player. He is a decent hitter, although not spectacular. His durability has also been very good, as only once in his nine-year career has he played fewer than 147 games. He played in 155 games this past season.
Markakis hit .276, with an OBP of .342 and OPS of .729, in 642 at-bats. His 14 home runs and 50 RBI do not fit with what he will be asking in free agency. The OBP number is strong, but his run production is lacking.
Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe had this to say about Markakis and how he would fit with the Giants:
"Nick Markakis, RF, Orioles — The Orioles are expected to decline Markakis’s $17.5 million option and pay him a $2 million buyout, make him a qualifying offer, and then try to reach a long-term deal with him. Markakis loves playing in Baltimore, though he’d likely get a lot of attention on the market. One team to watch for would be the Giants, who though relying heavily on Travis Ishikawa for big hits, would likely not commit to him as an everyday left fielder. But there will be others, such as the Mets, if they can’t get the power hitter (Nelson Cruz?) they’re seeking.
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The Orioles did in fact decline the option on Markakis, and he is now on the free-agent market.
He has played right field for the bulk of his career, and there is a question if he would be open to moving to left. He has won two Gold Gloves as a right fielder and may not want to make the switch.
According to Steve Adams on MLB Trade Rumors, Markakis will likely command something in the neighborhood of $48 million over four years.
Markakis' numbers have been fairly flat over the past five seasons, which likely means he has a limited upside. It does not make sense for the Giants to invest in that lengthy a contract for the amount of money Markakis is seeking.
Probability of Nick Markakis signing with the Giants: 10 percent
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No. 9: Yoan Moncada
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Yoan Moncada is one of the most interesting possibilities for the Giants. The Cuban native is only 19 years of age and has tremendous talent.
His countryman, Yasmany Tomas, 24, just agreed to a six-year, $68.5 million deal with the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Giants were very interested in Tomas, who would have been able to step into the open left field spot.
Moncada would likely start his career in the minors but has a huge upside. He is an infielder and could be groomed to play third base. A switch-hitter, Moncada has great talent and could become a star.
Because of his age, signing Moncada is a complicated process. Jorge L. Ortiz of USA Today Sports, outlines the process that must be completed before Moncada is signed. He must first be cleared by the U.S. Department of Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control.
Moncada is less of a proven commodity than the more experienced Tomas, so his contract is not likely to be as great as that of Tomas.
Something along the lines of six years and $50 million could be within the realm of possibility for Moncada.
It would be a speculative gamble for the Giants to sign Moncada, and they would need to also find a suitable stopgap measure at third base while Moncada gets more seasoning. Nevertheless, it's a gamble that could pay off handsomely for Brian Sabean and the Giants.
Probability of the Giants signing Yoan Moncada: 10 percent
No. 8: Jon Lester
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Jon Lester, along with Max Scherzer, are the top two free-agent pitchers on the market. With the Boston Red Sox out of the pennant race, Lester was acquired by the Oakland A's in a trade deadline deal which included former Oakland slugger Yoenis Cespedes.
The hope was that Lester would be a dominant ace and lead the A's to the World Series. Unfortunately, that did not happen. Lester's regular-season performance with the A's was decent, but he also failed to hold a four-run lead in the eighth inning of the AL Wild Card Game against the Royals.
Lester threw a combined 219.2 innings last year between Boston and Oakland. He allowed 194 hits and 48 walks, while striking out 220. His ERA was 2.46 to go along with a WHIP of 1.102. However, Lester's failure to come through in the playoffs will haunt the A's for a long time.
Lester is highly coveted, and there are several teams interested. He will command a huge long-term deal.
CSN's David Kaplan reported on the Kap and Haugh radio show that the Chicago Cubs have made Lester an offer of six years and north of $135 million (h/t CSN Chicago's Tony Andracki). Kaplan goes on to state that the Giants are also extremely interested.
A six-year deal is extremely risky for a pitcher, and the Giants were burned by a similar contract that former managing partner Peter McGowan orchestrated for Barry Zito, which was for seven years.
More than the money is the length of the contract, which poses the greatest risk for any team that signs Lester.
If Sabean could sign Lester to a four-year, $100 million deal with some kind of mutual option for another year, that would be a more realistic scenario for the Giants.
ESPN's Jim Bowden reported that the Giants will meet with Lester next week (h/t ESPN.com news services).
Probability that Jon Lester will sign with the Giants: 15 percent
No. 7: Jason Hammel
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Jason Hammel was having a very good season with the Chicago Cubs when he was traded to the Oakland A's, along with Jeff Samardzija, at the trade deadline.
As a Cub, Hammel worked 108.2 innings and allowed 88 hits and 23 walks while striking out 104. His ERA was a stellar 2.98, and his WHIP was 1.021. Hammel's record was 8-5 at the time of the trade.
With Oakland, Hammel floundered. He went 2-6, with an ERA of 4.26 and WHIP of 1.286. In 67.2 innings, Hammel allowed 66 hits and 21 walks while striking out 54.
Hammel made $6 million last year, and if the Giants can sign him to a two-year, $16-18 million deal, it would be a good move.
Although the Giants will consider other pitchers, such as Jon Lester, Max Scherzer, Jake Peavy and Justin Masterson, they could end up with a relative bargain in Hammel.
Probability that Jason Hammel signs with the Giants: 20 percent
No. 6: Sergio Romo
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Sergio Romo has been an integral member of the bullpen in the Giants' three world championship teams in San Francisco.
Although Romo struggled and lost the closer job he held, he came on strong after the All-Star break. His overall numbers were mediocre. Romo's 3.72 ERA was over a point above his worst performance in the past five years.
Romo found his slider and performed extremely well from July 22 through the end of the season. In 19.1 innings over that period, Romo allowed only 12 hits, three walks and two earned runs while striking out 23. His ERA was 0.93 and his WHIP 0.775.
Romo continued his superb performance in the postseason. In nine appearances, Romo allowed only one run in seven innings of work.
Romo made $6.3 million in 2014, and if he wants to open the 2015 season as a closer, it will not be in San Francisco. Now will the Giants pay him closer money.
The Giants' bullpen was a key reason they won the 2014 World Series, and losing Romo would be a serious blow. If the Giants can sign Romo to a two-year, $13 million deal, it would be a wise move.
Although Romo is a fan favorite, he may need to give the Giants a hometown discount if he wants to stay. Romo is from Southern California and has deep roots in the Southwest. Look for the Los Angeles Dodgers, Los Angeles Angels and Diamondbacks to pursue him.
Probability that Romo returns to the Giants: 33 percent
No. 5: Torii Hunter
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Torii Hunter will be 40 years of age in July of next year, but don't let age fool you: He can still play at a very high level. Hunter has kept himself in excellent shape and has plenty of mileage left.
In 2014, Hunter hit .286, with an OBP of .319 and OPS of .765. He hit 17 home runs and drove in 83 runs.
Hunter is also a solid defensive player in the outfield, and although he has played the bulk of his career in right field, he should have no trouble switching to left.
Hunter made $14 million this past season and should remain fairly close to that price range. If the Giants can snag him with a one-year, $12 million offer, he would be an excellent fit. Even a two-year deal in the $24 million range would be acceptable.
Probability that Hunter will sign with the Giants: 25 percent
No. 4: Nelson Cruz
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In August of 2013, Nelson Cruz was suspended by Major League Baseball for violating the drug policy. A free agent last winter, Cruz signed a one-year contract with the Baltimore Orioles for only $8 million.
A slugger like Cruz would normally command a much higher price, but the alleged steroid usage pushed the market for him downward.
That will not happen this time around. Cruz led the majors with 40 home runs and also drove in 108 runs. He hit .271, with an OBP of .333 and OPS of .859.
Cruz split time between the outfield and DH, which makes him very attractive to American League teams.
Defensively, Cruz is merely adequate but still probably better than Michael Morse, who patrolled left field for the Giants last season. The key questions are whether Cruz can be swayed to come to AT&T Park and if he is willing to give up being a DH.
At the age of 34, it would be foolish for the Giants to offer him a contract beyond two or three years. If the Giants can sign Cruz to a two-year, $45 million deal, it would give them the power hitter they covet in left field. Even a three-year, $63 million contract would be appropriate for a player of Cruz's value.
Probability of Nelson Cruz coming to San Francisco: 30 percent
No. 3: Chase Headley
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Chase Headley was traded by the San Diego Padres to the New York Yankees at the trade deadline last year. After a poor first half with the Padres, Headley played well with the Yankees.
Jon Heyman reports on CBSSports.com that the Yankees have expressed a willingness to offer Headley a three-year deal but that Headley would like more. Headley turned down a three-year, $35 million offer last spring from the Padres and, as Heyman reports, will want something better.
Headley is a solid defensive third baseman, but his offensive numbers have declined since 2012, when he hit .286 with 31 home runs and 115 RBI.
In 2013, Headley hit .250, with 13 home runs and 50 RBI. Then, in 2014, his cumulative numbers between the Padres and Yankees were a batting average of .243, with 13 home runs and 39 RBI.
Headley will turn 31 years of age in May of 2015, and his recent decline in offensive production makes him a definite gamble.
Although I personally am not enamored with the prospects of the Giants signing Headley, it is quite possible they will make a run at him.
A three-year, $45 million deal is likely to be around what Headley will command in the market. However, if Sabean is backed into a corner without a third baseman, we could potentially see an offer in the four-year, $60 million range.
Chicago Cubs Online discusses a David Kaplan report that the Giants are exploring a possible trade with the Cubs for third baseman Luis Valbuena. The offensive production numbers of Valbuena and Headley are very close, but Valbuena is far less expensive and also younger than Headley.
If Sabean can pull of a trade with the Cubs for Valbuena, the Giants will not need to pay the high price for Headley.
Probability that Chase Headley signs with the Giants: 15 percent
No. 2: Justin Masterson
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Prior to the 2014 season, Justin Masterson had been a solid No. 3 or 4 starter for the Cleveland Indians. His best season was in 2013, when he made the All-Star Game and finished the year with a record of 14-10, ERA of 3.45 and WHIP of 1.202.
However, in 2014, Masterson was unable to build on his success with a decent year and struggled, having the worst season of his career. He was traded from the Indians to the Cardinals at the trade deadline, but that did not improve his performance.
Masterson's combined totals were 128.2 innings pitched and 141 hits allowed, with 69 walks. He struck out 116 and stumbled to an ERA of 5.88 and WHIP of 1.632.
The Giants have had a lot of success bringing in players who had dismal seasons due to injury or poor play. Their stay in San Francisco regenerated their careers. Some of the notable players the Giants have resurrected include Aubrey Huff, Cody Ross, Pat Burrell, Tim Hudson, Ryan Vogelsong, Jake Peavy and Michael Morse.
This can be attributed to good scouting, and if the Giants believe that Masterson can contribute, you can bet they will pursue him.
Masterson made just under $10 million in 2014 and coming off his poor season will not see a big increase in that number.
A one-year deal for $10 million could bring Masterson to San Francisco. This would allow Masterson the opportunity to have a good year and dramatically increase his market value after the 2015 season.
Probability of Justin Masterson signing with the Giants: 33 percent
No. 1: Jake Peavy
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Jake Peavy was having a miserable season with the Red Sox when he was dealt to the Giants at the trade deadline. He had a record of 1-9, with an ERA of 4.72 and WHIP of 1.427.
Coming back to the National League and reuniting with his former manager, Bruce Bochy, did wonders for Peavy. In 12 starts, he went 6-4, with an ERA of 2.17 and WHIP of 1.042. Peavy threw 78.2 innings for the Giants and allowed only 65 hits and 17 walks while striking out 58.
Peavy's intense style provided a spark for the Giants, and he quickly became a fan favorite.
Peavy was finishing out a two-year, $29 million contract last season but should make a little less moving forward. He will be 34 years of age in late May, which will also limit his earning power.
The relationship Peavy has with Bochy and the great chemistry he developed with his new teammates and the fans may be enough to get him to stay, even if another team offers a little more money.
The loss of Pablo Sandoval to the Red Sox has GM Brian Sabean looking into high-priced free-agent pitchers, such as Jon Lester and Max Scherzer. However, prudent financial management will dissuade Sabean from signing either of those two pitchers to a huge long-term deal.
That brings us to the next tier of pitchers, and Peavy is the best fit for the Giants. His success in San Francisco, familiarity with the National League and his relationship with Bochy are all positives that will lead him to stay. Look for Peavy to sign with the Giants on a two-year, $24 million deal.
Probability that Jake Peavy will return to San Francisco: 60 percent
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