Colts Should Use Stretch Run to Finally Phase Trent Richardson Out of Offense

In any given week of the NFL season, the Indianapolis Colts have a 37 percent chance of playing a team from the AFC South. Since quarterback Andrew Luck joined the Colts in the draft, Indianapolis has gone 14-2 against AFC South teams, and the majority of those wins have not been remotely close. That the Colts feasted again on the Jacksonville Jaguars after a struggle in the first half should surprise nobody. 

In any given week of the NFL season, using his Colts history as a precedent, Colts running back Trent Richardson has a 100 percent chance of not rushing for 80 yards. In only four of Richardson's 24 games has he managed to even top four yards per carry, which is a very low standard for an NFL running back. 

While Richardson had been outperformed by backs before—by almost any other back in Indianapolis, really—that had always come with the disclaimer that the other backs have had some career success.

Running back Donald Brown was a former first-round pick and recently injured Ahmad Bradshaw had a solid career for the New York Giants. After undrafted free agent Dan Herron came off the street and immediately out-touched and out-rushed Richardson, he showed much more burst despite losing a fumble. Mike Clay of Pro Football Focus shared Herron's stats, as well as Richardson's, from Sunday's matchup:

"

Dan Herron ended up with 96 total yards on 17 touches today. Richardson had 42 yards and a TD on 13 carries (0 rec)

— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) November 23, 2014"

Forget about the pretense that Richardson cost the Colts a first-round pick. That pick is a sunk cost. What Indianapolis has in Richardson is a back who has repeatedly disappointed. 

Richardson is 34th out of 36 running backs in Football Outsiders' DVOA and DYAR this year, in the same offense where Bradshaw had ranked 24th in each category. In 2013, Richardson was 45th of 47 backs by DYAR and 44th in DVOA. Supporting running back Brown was 14th in DYAR and second in DVOA. 

This was game 24 of the Trent Richardson experiment. The only way to justify the fact that Richardson is still heavily involved in this offense is to come up with a convoluted scenario straight out of 24.

One where Richardson "establishes" the run against heavy fronts (because no other running back in the NFL could do this) or else a piano will fall on offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton's mother, which will start a chain reaction of events that leads to the Australians invading Siam for the Risk card.

And look, Herron likely isn't anything special. In Matt Waldman's Rookie Scouting Portfolio 2012, Herron came in 18th among all running backs, between Brandon Bolden and someone named "Lennon Creer." This was Herron's first NFL game, and he easily out-did Richardson. The Indianapolis Star's Stephen Holder felt Herron's start was not due to his skill set but rather Richardson recovering from the flu: 

But the fact of the matter is that running back is one position in the NFL where you should never settle for replacement-level production, because undrafted free agents have proven time and time again that they can come out of the woodwork and produce in the league.

The Colts can look at what the Houston Texans found in Arian Foster, or they can look at Chris Ivory. Branden Oliver. C.J. Anderson. Isaiah Crowell. It's just not that hard to find production at running back. 

Herron has earned a shot. Zurlon Tipton, a fellow undrafted free-agent back recently promoted from the practice squad, also deserves one. For that matter, any number of other young backs in free agency could use a chance to fill the gaping wound that has become this running attack. 

I don't expect the Colts to make a change. They've stuck with Richardson through every storm. The scouting and front office under general manager Ryan Grigson continues to outwardly promote that they believe Richardson is the back they traded a first-round pick for. 

But the Colts will likely be in the playoffs—they have a two-game lead on the Texans with five games to play and a game against the Texans in Indianapolis yet to be played. As much as Houston gave the Colts a nice little scare, and will likely continue to linger as they play some games against Tennessee and Jacksonville, the division crown continues to seem all but inevitable for Indianapolis. 

But the Colts can no longer afford to keep Richardson on scholarship and pretend he's a star. They're not a juggernaut contender. They likely won't get a bye. It's time to start managing the edges of their team and figure out if they can find an area to improve. 

And right now, for a team with an obvious desire to play a power running game, the Colts continue to weaken that plan every time they let Richardson tote the rock. It's time to let the past be the past and use the upcoming games to figure out which back is the best bet to deliver a good performance in the playoffs. 

Because if history can tell us anything, it's that Richardson won't be the back supplying it.

Rivers McCown is the AFC South lead writer for Bleacher Report and the co-host of the Three-Cone Drill podcast. His work has also appeared on Football Outsiders and ESPN.com. Follow him on Twitter at @riversmccown.