At Tomorrow's Deadline, Epstein Must Make a Move

(Photo by Jeff Gross/Getty Images)

When Theo Epstein was introduced as the Red Sox General Manager six years ago, one of the first things he did was announce his intent to transform the Red Sox into a player development machine.

Great news for Red Sox Nation at the time, as for years the Red Sox struggled in the player development part of the game. Free agent and trade acquisitions were keeping this team on life support.

Dan Duquette had an eye for talent, but most of it was found via acquisition by trade or free agency. Pedro Martinez and Manny Ramirez, for example, could attest to that.

Six years later, and Epstein has certainly completed the task he put himself up to. He came right in and made the right decisions to help the team win in the present and in the future.

Emphasizing more about enabling home grown talent, the Red Sox have won two championships under Epstein, all while maintaining a top farm system among all the teams in Major League Baseball.

Most teams either have one or the other in terms of an outstanding player development system and a budget to acquire virtually any player on the market.

However, with the Red Sox, one of the largest baseball markets in the country, budget isn't an issue for Epstein, who has certainly set up his Red Sox for years to come through the draft.

His great draft finds and smart, cost effective free agent adds have garnered comparisons such as "the brains of Billy Beane combined with the budget of Brian Cashman."

Recently, though, Epstein has been far too reluctant to deal his prospects. While not the sentimental type who could never bring himself to trade players that he developed, he is more and more starting to commit the heinous crime of overvaluing his prospects.

Everyone loves the promise that the top prospects bring to the table, as they give hope to fans that they can produce for many years to come. However, the catch is that the player is at least a few years off from actually doing so.

After hurling a no-hitter in just his second Major League start, top prospect Clay Buchholz had established far too high expectations.

Now, just weeks away from his 25th birthday, Buchholz still has all of the stuff to be good in the big leagues, but none of the mentality.

With Josh Beckett and Jon Lester delivering at the Major League level, as well as a bushel of other prospects who could be just as good, one would come to think that Epstein wouldn't have a problem dealing one of the two prospects Clay Buchholz or Michael Bowden.

Especially when trading one of those pitching prospects along with other Minor Leaguers would land the team an elite hitter like Adrian Gonzalez or Victor Martinez.

Buchholz is sitting on a gold mine of potential. The only problem with him is that he is about as confident on the mound as a socially awkward 13 year old boy is around a cute girl.

While Buchholz definitely can harness his stuff to become a reliable top-of-the-rotation starter and rack up the strikeouts, his lack of mental strength makes it no more than what it really is: potential.

As for Bowden, while he can also become a very good starting pitcher, he projects to be a middle of the rotation guy, a mentally tough Jeff Suppan. If he continues to post the type of Minor League numbers he is while in the Show, he will be a great starter.

While the only negative thing on his scouting report is that he has unconventional, quirky mechanics, the Red Sox have not tried to alter his delivery because he still maintains consistent arm movement and there appears to be no injury risk.

While Bowden may not develop into the ace he was once projected to be, he can still be an above average pitcher. However, the Red Sox have plenty of other guys who can develop into an above average pitcher, and his potential should by no means make him untouchable.

In dealing with Buchholz and Bowden in trade talks, Epstein has been treating his kids like they are can't miss, sure thing prospects, which is hardly the case.

With Buchholz' confidence issues, he could easily be doomed to the same fate as Bud Smith.

Smith was once rated as the number one prospect in St. Louis' farm system, just ahead of the promising young third baseman Albert Pujols. Remember the last time you saw him playing the hot corner?

Smith, a left handed starter for the Cardinals, no-hit the San Diego Padres on Sept 3, 2001, putting the exclamation point on his already impressive rookie season. In 2002, Smith would go 1-5 with a 6.94 ERA.

Does this sound familiar to anyone?

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