Would Giants Be Wiser to Risk $100M Deal on Yasmany Tomas or Pablo Sandoval?

Let's play a game of "Spend the San Francisco Giants' Money!"

Today's contestants: Cuban slugger Yasmany Tomas and third baseman Pablo Sandoval. They're free agents that have been linked to the 2014 World Series champs, but the $100 million price tags on both players probably means it'll have to be one or the other.

Since we're the ones with all the answers, let's ask ourselves: Which one would be the wiser investment?

Well, first things first. Though we're talking about similar investments, we're likely not talking about identical investments.

Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle says that Sandoval, San Francisco's everyday third baseman since 2009, is looking for a six-year deal. Assuming he's still clinging to the $100 million price tag he put on himself in April, Dierkes' projection of six years and $114 million sounds about right.

As for Tomas—whose first name is sometimes spelled "Yasmani"—Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe floated a $100 million valuation in September. Knowing that fellow Cuban Rusney Castillo just got a seven-year deal, Tim Dierkes' projection of seven years and $105 million for Tomas is sensible.

If so, the Giants committing to Tomas rather than retaining Sandoval would likely require a slightly cheaper investment that would cover more years. That's one point in Tomas' favor, with another being his youth.

Whereas a six-year deal for Sandoval would cover his age-28-33 seasons, a seven-year deal for Tomas would cover his age-24-30 seasons. J.C. Bradbury concluded at Baseball Prospectus that modern hitters peak at 30, so a six-year deal for Sandoval may only cover half of his prime seasons. A seven-year deal for Tomas, on the other hand, would cover only prime seasons.

So on the surface, things favor Tomas. But the bigger question is what the Giants would be buying with their $100 million. On that front, we'll start with the bigger mystery of the two.

What Tomas Can Do for $100 Million

Chung Sung-Jun/Getty Images

For starters, it sounds like the Giants' hope with Tomas is that he could at least take Sandoval's spot. This is from the great Peter Gammons:

Tomas as a third baseman isn't totally outside the realm of possibility. According to a subscriber-only scouting report by Ben Badler of Baseball America, Tomas has a plus arm and does have some past experience at third base.

But Tomas doesn't necessarily need to fit at third to fit on the Giants. He's generally thought of as a corner outfield candidate, and the Giants happen to have a need for one of those in left field. 

One thing that's for sure either way is that Tomas definitely has the power for either position. In Badler's words:

"

Power is the calling card for Tomas, a strong man with big lift in his swing. It’s 70 raw power on the 20-80 scale, with a chance to hit 25-plus home runs over a full season, possibly more depending on contact frequency in game situations. The power is evident in batting practice, where he generates loft and over-the-fence power from his pull side over to right-center field. 

"

Or, if you prefer moving pictures for evidence:

That's an awful lot of power, and that it comes from the right side is a bonus. Power is becoming increasingly rare in today's game, but right-handed power in particular is in perilously short supply.

As such, signing Tomas could mean getting seven years of one of the few great right-handed power hitters in the game. For a rare gem like that, $100 million is a fair price.

As for what else Tomas can do besides hit for power, though, let's just say that's where things get iffy.

Tomas' hit tool is a question mark. Badler argued that his uppercut swing isn't geared for making contact, and both he and FanGraphs' Kiley McDaniel have questions about Tomas' plate discipline. In today's whiff-happy environment, these are legit concerns.

Then you can factor in how, according to McDaniel, Tomas' speed "plays more fringy to below average in games." And plus arm or no plus arm, Tomas doesn't get high marks for his defensive outlook. 

Cuban baseball expert Peter Bjarkman summed it all up to Jorge L. Ortiz of USA Today: "Tomas has a lot of physical tools, but there's a lot of downside to his game. I would put him a big notch below both [Yasiel] Puig and Rusney Castillo, and he is not in the same universe as [Jose] Abreu. He could learn and develop, but he is definitely a work in progress."

This is something for all teams to be wary of to a certain degree, but it's something the Giants have to be especially wary of.

Because of how much AT&T Park suppresses power—per ESPN.com, it's been no better than the 28th-most homer-friendly park in the majors in any of the last four seasons—they're more likely to be burned by investing in a power-only player than most teams.

Of course, the combination of Tomas' youth and the length of his likely contract means a good window to groom his non-power skills. But that's another complication for the Giants. They're a win-now team, and replacing Sandoval with a project player could hinder their win-now outlook.

The short version of this long story: Tomas' power is worth salivating over, but the Giants have less incentive to pay for it than most. For them, he's not a slam dunk.

What Sandoval Can Do for $100 Million

Elsa/Getty Images

After getting in-depth with Tomas' questionable outlook as a Giant, Sandoval looks pretty good by default. In light of how we last saw him hitting .366 in the postseason, he looks even better.

But it's not hard to knock Sandoval down a few pegs too. As tempting as it is to buy into his postseason self as the "real" Sandoval, the real Sandoval just isn't that awesome.

Here's his progression over the last few seasons:

Year	G	PA	HR	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+
2011	117	466	23	.315	.357	.552	.909	155
2012	108	442	12	.283	.342	.447	.789	123
2013	141	584	14	.278	.341	.417	.758	116
2014	157	638	16	.279	.324	.415	.739	111

What you see for the most part are countdowns, and the OPS+ column is the one that says it all. Since a OPS+ of 100 denotes a league-average hitter, Sandoval's hitting is trending steadily toward mediocrity.

There are good reasons for this. As FanGraphs can show, Sandoval's trademark aggressive approach is only getting more aggressive. With his power refusing to increase, that means he's putting himself in the hands of the BABIP gods more regularly than any other player. They sometimes smile on players, but they're typically jerks.

The bright side, such as it is, is that there's seemingly a limit to how bad Sandoval can get.

Sandoval may swing way too much, but he's doing so while maintaining a consistently below-average strikeout rate and an acceptable average on balls in play. That's a good recipe for his batting average to stay in the .280 range.

His power refusing to get better, meanwhile, isn't exactly a problem. Whether you look at slugging percentage or isolated power, Sandoval's power is lingering right around average. Between this and his outlook for batting average, his solid hitting floor is a decent trade-off for his lack of a high hitting ceiling.

As for what else Sandoval can do, baserunning value is out of the question but defensive value isn't. The advanced metrics have been known to approve of his defense, and he sure passed the eye test in 2014:

The catch with Sandoval's defense has generally been that it's only good when he's been in shape. But this is something he arguably disproved in 2014.

Though Sandoval lost a bunch of weight leading into the season, a Giants official told Nick Cafardo that he gained at least 20 pounds throughout the season. This didn't seem to hurt his defense, which is a welcome suggestion that maybe his defense isn't necessarily going to be ruled by his weight.

This is not to say that Sandoval is worth $100 million, mind you. That's a big price to pay for a slightly above-average player. And with just an OK bat and no speed to go with good defense, that's likely the best Sandoval can be in his remaining prime. Which, as you'll recall, is close to being over.

All told, here's the choice before the Giants: They can pay $100 million for Tomas to be a limited player for seven or so years, or they can pay $100 million for Sandoval to be a solid player for a couple years before he declines.

So then...

So Then...

I'd go with Sandoval.

The Giants wouldn't be stupid to invest nine figures in Tomas, but it's hard to get around the notion that he's a bigger risk for them than he is for other teams. AT&T Park would make it tough for the Giants to get ideal power production out of him, and that's an issue knowing that it's his only MLB-ready skill.

A nine-figure contract for Sandoval wouldn't necessarily be a smarter investment, but it would be a safer investment. Even with the second half of the deal likely to be a bust, getting a couple more good years out of Sandoval fits with the team's desire to remain contenders. And no, it doesn't hurt that there's loads of familiarity between him and the organization.

Besides which, I'm assuming the Giants have plenty of panda paraphernalia sitting around. It would be a shame if that went to waste.

Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted/linked.  

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