Would the USMNT Be Able to Qualify for Euro 2016?
With the 2014 World Cup now a thing of the past, the United States men's national team is focusing on developing young players ahead of the 2015 CONCACAF Gold Cup and 2016 Copa America Centenario.
But what if the Yanks were posed with a bigger challenge? What if the United States had an opportunity to qualify for Euro 2016 in France alongside many prestigious footballing nations? Would Jurgen Klinsmann's side be able to make the 24-team tournament after getting out of the Group of Death in Brazil?
Below we take a look at the variables that go in to the qualifying process. And if they would all come together perfectly for the United States to earn a spot in the European Championships.
The Squad
The first thing we need to look at is the quality of the players in the United States squad. The current stars of the team are Clint Dempsey, Jozy Altidore and Jermaine Jones. At the moment, first-choice 'keeper Tim Howard is on a one-year hiatus from the national team.
Dempsey and Altidore would anchor the attack in either a 4-4-2 or 4-2-3-1 formation designed by Klinsmann. Jones, who played at defensive midfield at the World Cup, is now seen as a center-back so we will treat him as one during this evaluation process.
Despite Howard not being out on the pitch, the Yanks have at least three 'keepers worthy of a starting position in Brad Guzan, Nick Rimando and Bill Hamid. Aston Villa's Guzan is the current No. 1 on the depth chart.
The back four is comprised of full-backs Fabian Johnson and DeAndre Yedlin as well as Jones and John Brooks. Brooks and Johnson bring with them experience from the Bundesliga, while Yedlin is a rising star with the Seattle Sounders in MLS.
In the midfield, Kyle Beckerman, Alejandro Bedoya and Mix Diskerud look like the closest thing to a consistent starting group at the position with Jones now in the back four. Michael Bradley can be added to this mix, but Klinsmann hasn't found a good fit for him in recent months.
There is no doubt the potential American starting 11 could rival other squads in terms of skill and European experience. But how they come together as one cohesive unit would be the big test, especially if Bradley is out of position in an advanced role.
Past Results
Before we can examine how the United States would fare over the next year in Euro qualifying, it is worth noting their past under Klinsmann.
Since Klinsmann took over in 2011, the Yanks have played a respectable schedule against plenty of European opponents. The first big win against an European side under Klinsmann came in 2012, when the Yanks defeated Italy 1-0 on the road.
The Americans have defeated Scotland, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Slovenia, Turkey, Czech Republic and Azerbaijan over the past three years. They also defeated Germany 4-3 in the summer of 2013, but that was not against Joachim Low's top players.
At the World Cup, the Yanks fell to Germany and Belgium, while they drew 2-2 with Portugal. In the years leading up to Brazil, Klinsmann's side suffered defeats to Austria and Ukraine, and they drew with Russia.
What we can conclude from these results is the Americans can be competitive with the second-tier teams in Europe. But beating the likes of Spain, France and Germany is not as easy as taking down mighty Slovenia.
The Qualification Process
With a FIFA ranking of 23 at the moment, the United States would have been placed somewhere in Pot 2 had they entered the group draw for Euro 2016.
If the Yanks did enter the qualification process, they most likely would have knocked the Republic of Ireland down to Pot 3, which would have led to a residual effect in each pot after that.
In a hypothetical group draw, the United States would be paired with one of the European superpowers as well as five other nations looking to clinch a spot in the 24-team field.
A best-case scenario would have seen the Yanks drawn with Greece, Norway, Finland, Azerbaijan and Gibraltar. Qualifying out of that group would be quite the easy task given the lack of dangerous lower-ranked teams.
However, the Yanks could also have ended up with Spain, Serbia, Iceland, Scotland and Kazakhstan. Just like any other tournament, earning a good draw is as important as having world-class talent to advance out of the group.
| Best-Case Scenario Group | Worst-Case Scenario Group |
| Greece | Spain |
| Norway | Serbia |
| Finland | Iceland |
| Azerbaijan | Scotland |
| Gibraltar | Kazakhstan |
As they proved in Brazil, the United States have the determination to make it out of a Group of Death, which is why the proposed group above with Spain may not be as scary as it looks.
Just like CONCACAF World Cup qualifying, the strategy in the minds of the Americans during this process would be to win every game at home and play for draws on the road.
In the most recent hexagonal round, the Yanks won all five of their home games. On their travels, they earned two wins at the death in Panama and Jamaica as well as a 0-0 draw at Estadio Azteca against Mexico.
Based on their home and road form in the most recent qualification tournament, the Americans would be considered a favorite to at least qualify for Euro 2016 with a first- or second-place finish in their group.
The Head-to-Head Matchups
Despite a history of good form in CONCACAF, the Americans would be facing an entirely different animal if they were to attempt to clinch a berth at Euro 2016. There is no doubt the top teams in Europe are still better than the ones in North America.
Although CONCACAF World Cup qualifying was as competitive as it ever was in 2013, there is still a big gap in class when you compare the likes of Costa Rica and Honduras to Switzerland and Belgium.
Compiling a starting 11 that can deal with the technical and physical abilities of European players is a tough task, even for a proven coach like Klinsmann.
There should be little doubt in how Dempsey, Jones or Guzan would perform, as all three players have shown time and time again they are worthy of playing on the biggest stages in the game.
The concern comes when you begin to talk about players like Altidore and Yedlin, who possess a ton of skill but do have some deficiencies in their respective games. Altidore is guilty of not showing up for a full 90 minutes, while the young Yedlin is still prone to a few careless takeaways when moving forward.
The key games the Yanks would have to win in order to finish in the top two of their group would come against the second-tier sides like Iceland and Serbia.
How someone like Beckerman contains Gylfi Sigurdsson for 90 minutes may end up determining the fate of the Yanks in the hypothetical worst-case scenario group.
There are plenty of flaws in the individual games of the American players. But as we saw in Brazil, when the team comes together on the big stage, they are capable of producing a surprising result even if they seem outmatched.
Could the United States Qualify for Euro 2016?
After breaking down everything in regards to the qualification process, the United States stand a good chance of making it into the 24-team field for Euro 2016.
Regardless of who they are drawn with in a six-team group, the Yanks have shown the resiliency required to make it out of a situation like that before.
With that in mind, and the talent they possess, it is safe to say the United States could finish second in a qualification group to earn one of the 24 coveted spots at Euro 2016.
Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90.
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