The 5 Most Important Prospects for the Boston Red Sox to Hold on to This Winter

The Boston Red Sox figure to be among the most active teams in both the free-agent and trade markets this offseason.

They need to fill at least two spots in their starting rotation. They need to solidify third base. They need to bolster their bullpen, and they could decide they need a new backup catcher, too.

That means that in addition to spending money, the Red Sox are likely to make some trades. With logjams in the outfield, at first base and in the Triple-A rotation, the Sox are well poised to make a splash or two in the coming months.

And while players such as Xander Bogaerts, Mookie Betts, Christian Vazquez, Allen Webster, Brandon Workman and Jackie Bradley Jr. all lost their rookie eligibility last season, there’s still plenty of talent in the Sox’s system that can be used to acquire prominent major leaguers.

That being said, let’s take a look at the five prospects Boston should try the hardest to hang on to this offseason. Any of these players are movable in a megadeal—a package for Giancarlo Stanton or Chris Sale, for example—but the Red Sox should be judicious in their willingness to include them in lesser packages.

5. Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP

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It’s somewhat incredible that the Baltimore Orioles were willing to give up six-plus years of control of Rodriguez for a few months of Andrew Miller. Yes, Miller helped the Orioles make a postseason run, and it’s reasonable for a team like Baltimore to push its chips in the middle when it has the chance. But the Red Sox could be reaping the rewards of that move for a long time.

Rodriguez was only having a so-so year in Double-A in Bowie, experiencing a slight velocity drop and struggling against fairly advanced hitters at the age of 21. For a player who came into the year as one of Baseball America’s top 100 prospects and was young for his level, that wasn’t too alarming, but it may have caused his stock to drop nonetheless.

That looks silly in hindsight, as Rodriguez regained some velocity and dominated in his six post-trade starts with Portland. He once again looks the part of a No. 3 or No. 4 starter, and he should be ready for the majors in fairly short order.

Rodriguez is hardly an untouchable prospect, but the Red Sox would be wise to avoid making the same mistake the Orioles made in giving up on Rodriguez for a complementary piece. Given how many of Boston’s other starter prospects profile better as relievers, he’s actually an important piece moving forward.

4. Rafael Devers, 3B

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Baseball America’s No. 3 prospect for the 2013 international signing period, Devers exploded onto the scene in 2014 with a staggering professional debut. The 17-year-old crushed the Dominican Summer League in his initial exposure to pro ball, then had his way with pitchers in the Gulf Coast League, too.

Overall, Devers hit seven homers and 17 doubles in just 261 at-bats, and his 50-35 strikeout-to-walk rate was quite promising, too. He very well could begin 2015 in short-season ball as an 18-year-old, which would be a challenging but warranted assignment.

Devers’ talent and performance has him skyrocketing up prospect lists, and it’s not hard to see why. SoxProspects.com currently lists Devers as the fourth-best prospect in Boston’s system, and Baseball America (subscription required) just ranked him as Boston’s sixth-best minor leaguer.

On the one hand, Devers isn’t likely to be MLB-ready until 2018 at the earliest, and the Red Sox would be silly to let a lottery ticket like Devers prevent them from landing a star. On the other hand, Devers arguably has the highest upside in Boston’s system, and it’s going to take an impressive return to get the Sox to deal him.

3. Manuel Margot, CF

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Margot is one of the toolsiest young players in the mid-minors, and he’s likely to shoot up top-100 prospect lists this offseason. As a 19-year-old in Single-A last season, Margot put his solid power, excellent speed and defensive prowess on display. He adjusted well to a late-season promotion to High-A Salem, and that’s where he figures to start the 2015 season.

With his plus to plus-plus defense in center field, speed and patient approach, the tools are there for Margot to become a top-of-the-order hitter at a premium defensive spot, as Baseball Prospectus’ Chris Mellen (subscription required) has written. That’s a first-division player, and if Margot hits well in the mid-minors, he’ll profile as one of the better outfield prospects in the game.

The Red Sox have Mookie Betts, Rusney Castillo and Jackie Bradley Jr. under control for at least five years. Given that Margot isn't likely to be MLB-ready until 2017, it may seem as though he represents a redundancy.

But that’s simply not the case. It’s impossible to project a roster that far out, players don’t always pan out (as it looks like Bradley may not) and there’s a lot that can happen between now and when Margot is ready. He’s undoubtedly one of the four or five best prospects in Boston’s system, and the Sox shouldn't trade him unless they’re getting a marquee player in return.

2. Henry Owens, LHP

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At this point, most Red Sox fans are well-acquainted with what Owens should be able to do on a baseball diamond. The lanky left-hander obliterated Double-A pitching as a 22-year-old in 2014, getting named to the U.S. Futures Game roster and the Eastern League All-Star team.

A promotion to Pawtucket proved more daunting for Owens, who got hit harder in six starts in Triple-A. But he still sits on the precipice of the major leagues, and it’s quite possible he’ll make some starts for the Red Sox at some point in 2015.

Labeling Owens as “untouchable” isn’t quite right. If he’s the primary piece of a deal for, say, Mat Latos or Cole Hamels, it’s easy to see why the Red Sox would be willing to part with him. According to Baseball America, Owens is projected as a top-100 prospect, yes, but some, such as Baseball Prospectus’ Chris Mellen (subscription required), see more of a No. 4 starter, while others, like ESPN.com’s Keith Law (subscription required), think he could go as high as a No. 2.

The gap between those projections and the uncertainty that comes with any young pitcher means Owens could be traded, but the Sox should still be very cautious when it comes to dealing a potential left-handed rotation fixture.

1. Blake Swihart, C

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Jorge Alfaro, Austin Hedges and Kevin Plawecki are in the conversation, but it’s pretty easy to argue that Swihart is the best catching prospect in baseball. After a 2014 season in which Swihart hit quite well and took steps forward as a defender in Double-A, he’s now close to MLB-ready, and he could serve as Boston’s backstop for the better part of the next decade.

Swihart truly has no glaring weaknesses to his game. He has decent power for a catcher, projecting to hit 12-plus homers per year in the majors. He has a decent approach and can hit for a good average. He’s an above-average defensive backstop, and he’s lauded for his on-field leadership and natural feel for the position, per Baseball Prospectus’ Chris Mellen (subscription required).

Catching prospects are one of the rarest commodities in the game—the Red Sox haven’t had one this good since Jason Varitek—and Swihart should only be moved in a package for a player like Stanton or Sale. It might be tempting to move him and go with Christian Vazquez, but as good as Vazquez is defensively, Swihart is the complete package.

Keep in mind that catching prospects often take longer to develop than other players, so even if Swihart doesn’t hit well right away, he’s still worth investing in. That being said, Swihart’s development has been markedly linear to this point, and his future is incredibly bright.