Roy Halladay: Is He, Or Any Pitcher, Worth It?

(Photo by Morry Gash-Pool/Getty Images)

As the "Roy Halladay sweepstakes" drag on, the question about whether to deal four or five top prospects for one player keeps coming up. The Phillies in particular seem to be playing hokey-pokey with J.A. Happ.

Is it a good idea to trade top notch prospects for a potential Hall of Famer? Well, I decided to look at history to see what it can tell us.

Obviously, it is rare that a former Cy Young winner gets dealt, but it has happened often enough to give us a track record: (note that I did not include 'rent-a-player' deadline deals).

1989: The Twins trade Frank Viola to the New York Mets for Rick Aguilera, David West, Kevin Tapani, Tim Drummond and Jack Savage.

Mets: Viola went 38-33 in 2 1/2 years with the Mets, winning 20 games in '90 but the Mets didn't make the playoffs in his time there.

Twins: Aguilera collected 275 saves over eight seasons with the Twins, with 3 All-Star appearances

Tapani was a solid ML pitcher, going 75-73 in six seasons with the Twins
The others didn't amount to much, but the Twins got a top of the rotation starter and a closer out of the deal.

Advantage - Prospects

1991: The Mets tried again to nail down an ace by sending Gregg Jefferies, Kevin McReynolds, and Keith Miller to the Royals for Bret Saberhagen

Mets:  Saberhagen went 29-22 in 3 1/2 injury plagued years with the Mets

Royals:  Jefferies played just one year with the Royals before being dumped for nothing.
McReynolds hit .246 with 24 HR's in two seasons.
Miller played parts of four seasons with the Royals, none of them really productive.

Advantage: Prospects (only because Saberhagen was one of the highest paid players in baseball in his unproductive time with the Mets).

1995: The Royals trade David Cone to the Blue Jays for Chris Stynes, David Sinnes, and Tony Medranno. The Jays then flip Cone at the trading deadline to the Yankees for Marty Janzen, Jason Jarvis, and Mike Gordon.

Yankees:  Cone went 18-8, 3.57 ERA in '95, winning 54 games over 5 1/2 seasons with the Yankees, four ending in championships.

Interestingly, NONE of the six prospects that went to the Royals and Jays became even decent major leaguers. Stynes had one decent year with the Reds, but that was it.

Advantage: Cy Young Pitcher

1997: The Expos trade Pedro Martinez, a 25-year-old Cy Young Award Winner, to the Red Sox for Carl Pavano and Tony Armas

Boston:  Martinez: 117-37 in seven seasons with the Sox.

Montreal:  Pavano went 24-37 with an ERA over 5 in 4 1/2 years with the Expos.
Armas had a slightly better career ERA of 4.37, mostly with the Expos.

Advantage: Huge Advantage for the Cy Young Pitcher. The age of Martinez when the deal was made really should be looked at as the key reason for the success of the deal.

2005: The Diamondbacks deal Randy Johnson to the Yankees for Javier Vazquez, Brad Halsey, and Dionnar Navarro.

Yankees:  Johnson went a disappointing 34-19, 4.5 ERA in two seasons with the Yankees.

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