The Nascar Chase: Who's Out and Who's In

al asifyouknowSenior Analyst IJuly 28, 2009

DAYTONA BEACH, FL - JULY 04:  Kyle Busch, driver of the #02 Waste Management Chip Ganassi Racing with Felix Sabates Lexus Riley, signs autographs for fans prior to the Rolex Grand-Am Sports Car Series Brumos Porsche 250 at Daytona International Speedway on July 4, 2008 in Daytona Beach, Florida.  (Photo by Rusty Jarrett/Getty Images for NASCAR)

Juan Pablo Montoya went from about 35 to a 100 points lead on the thirteenth spot, good news for a team that lost much sleep on Black Sunday.

Getting top tens and gaining points on the thirteenth spot has been this teams plan.

It's obviously working.

The chase will probably have two spots available, those will be decided in the next three or four races.

Who is vulnerable?

Well, the main suspect is Greg Biffle, even though he had a great race at INDY, he had a disastrous six weeks.

From Sonoma to Chicago Greg’s best finish was eighteenth, unless the Indy race has totally turn this team around, he will be out looking in at the chase.

The other could be Matt Kenseth, or Juan Pablo Montoya if he can’t recover from Black Sunday.

Who could get in those spots?

I just don’t see Kyle Busch outside the top 12, we all know he’s got a win or two left before the chase.

One win and a few top tens will get him in.

The long shot would be Reutimann, he is 70 points out and would need a few top five, that should get him in the chase.

Who is toast, in other words, as Tony Soprano would say, ”forget about it”

Sorry pall, Burton, Boyer and Vickers are close but no cigar.

Time will tell, but that is how asifyouknow thinks this soap opera will turn out.