Miami Heat Miscasting Norris Cole as Their Starting Point Guard
The Miami Heat have a new starting point guard.
After three seasons spent backing up Mario Chalmers as an energy man off the bench, Norris Cole has supplanted the incumbent as the quarterback of what—for the past few seasons anyway—has been a historically potent attack.
“It would be a lifelong dream to come in on opening night as the starter,” the 26-year-old told Jason Lieser of The Palm Beach Post, adding: "It would mean a lot. Any time you work hard, you want to be able to see results, and I’ve been able to see them during this preseason and over the years I’ve been here. The other players and coaches have been able to see that, too."
With all due respect to Cole, who undoubtedly possesses intriguing speed and a high motor, it’s not clear what the Miami staff sees in the 6’2” guard. His skills simply don’t translate to production. To crib a line from Billy Beane, if he’s a good player, how come he don’t play good?
Across three seasons, Cole has been below his positional average in every discrete statistical category, save for fouls, where he’s drawn 0.6 more whistles per 48 minutes than the average point guard—and that doesn’t exactly count.
According to BoxscoreGeeks.com, the average 1 scores 19.3 points per 48 minutes with 4.6 rebounds, 9.3 assists and 2.1 steals. Cole is at 13.9, 3.8. 5.4 and 1.8 in his not entirely illustrious career.
And this doesn’t really get to the nub of the problem: Cole’s inefficiency. The guard is a career 40.9 percent shooter—well south of the norm—with a paltry 47.8 true shooting percentage. What’s especially startling about this figure is the context it occurred in.
Cole was playing with LeBron James on his team, and the four-time MVP drew defensive eyeballs like a magnet and had a profoundly positive effect on the shooting percentages of those around him. To wit: In 2013-14, the Heat posted a true shooting percentage that was an NBA-best 59, per ESPN.com. For point of reference, Michael Jordan, in his Chicago Bulls career, posted a true shooting percentage of 58. So, yeah.
Even in this historically efficient offensive system, Cole couldn’t put the ball in the basket. In 2013-14, according to Basketball-Reference, Cole finished last in true shooting percentage among Heat players who logged more than 1,000 minutes. By measure of win shares per 48 minutes, he was the worst player on the team.
So it’s more than a little puzzling that Miami has decided to elevate him to No. 1 on the point guard depth chart. Granted, he’s been solid in the preseason—Cole scored 14 points on six shots with seven assists against zero turnovers in Friday’s final tune-up—but a solid performance across a few exhibition games isn’t enough to offset 287 games of really bad professional basketball.
The Heat aren’t bereft of other options at the point, either. Mario Chalmers—Finals struggles aside—is a thoroughly average basketball player. His career win shares per 48 minutes is 0.1, exactly league average. In other words: He’s much better than Norris Cole.
And Shabazz Napier has the potential—and the collegiate track record—to be immediately better than both of them. The national champion led the NCAA in win shares in 2013-14, per Sports-Reference.com, and after a rocky summer league rebounded to have a strong preseason. And, at 23, he is a rookie who’s unusually well prepared to step in and succeed.
Napier is also an aggressive and effective scorer, a shoot-first point guard—which makes Cole’s promotion all the more head-scratching. Miami wanted a point guard who can score, but it chose the wrong one.
According to the Sun-Sentinel’s Shandel Richardson:
"The Heat envision Cole as more of 'scoring guard.' It's a position he's played during his college days at Cleveland State. He was called upon for points while also creating opportunities for others. With LeBron James' offseason departure, Cole will be asked to produce even more.
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This is bizarre. The Heat wanted a scorer, so they empowered a guy who can’t score. They were unhappy with the performance of an average point guard, so they gave his job to someone who’s been bad. They wanted a point guard they could build with, so they tapped Norris Cole.
The 2014-15 Miami Heat's biggest problem is that LeBron James is in Cleveland. But, if their handling of their backcourt is any indication, it's not their only problem.
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