Even with Inconsistent Defense, Colts Have Chance at Super Bowl with Andrew Luck

The Indianapolis Colts have been downgraded from Super Bowl contender to above-average in the AFC for the last 36 hours. 

Whether it's in national power rankings or fans on Twitter, there is a lot of overreaction going on regarding the Colts' forecast for the rest of the season. 

Let's start by saying, yes, the Colts defense was horrific on Sunday. Any time you allow an opposing quarterback to have one of the top 10 most prolific days of all time, you're doing something wrong. And that doesn't even include Le'Veon Bell's 92-yard rushing day on top of it. 

It was, unquestionably, a poor performance by the Indianapolis Colts' defense, and it was a reminder that despite their success this season, the Colts defense still desperately needs a few more pieces, especially one or two more "blue-chip" playmakers. The early success was partially boosted by poor opposing quarterback play, a favorable home schedule and fantastic scheming by Greg Manusky. 

But the Colts also ran into a perfect storm, with a few factors out of their control that contributed to Pittsburgh's day. 

• Vontae Davis' injury. Davis has been having a Pro Bowl-worthy season, and not having him on the field was a huge blow. With Davis healthy, the Colts still likely would have had a down day, but I seriously doubt 51 points would have happened. With Davis on the sideline, the rest of the defense was stretched past its limits.
• Ben Roethlisberger had a day for the ages. Sure, the Colts' lack of pass rush and limited secondary helped, but you don't have over 500 yards and six touchdowns without the quarterback having a good day. Roethlisberger isn't an elite quarterback, but he's in that second tier, and he was phenomenal Sunday. His ball placement and timing on his throws was as good as any I've seen all year.
• Along with Roethlisberger, the Steelers made some difficult plays look easy. Antonio Brown, in the conversation for best receiver in the league, made a fantastic one-handed catch for a touchdown. Martavis Bryant made a great leaping catch on a fade route for a touchdown that was near-impossible to defend. Again, the Colts' defense was bad, but the Steelers were also very, very good. 

But don't get me wrong: The defense was concerning and has real issues that will continue to give the Colts problems as the season goes on if not addressed. 

The positive thing, is that those problems can be overcome by the Colts, namely because of the offense directed by Andrew Luck. 

Jeff Zelevansky/Getty Images

Last season, Luck and the offense wasn't enough to overcome poor defensive play, simply because the offense itself was too inconsistent. So far this season, we've seen Andrew Luck consistently lead this team on big drive after big drive, scoring more points and gaining more yards than any other team in the league so far this season. 

The offense isn't the inconsistent pretender it was last season, it's a legitimate top-five offense in the NFL, and Andrew Luck is the biggest reason why. 

No matter what the Colts may try to say about the running game and its importance, the Colts offense is leading the league because the coaches have put the ball in Luck's hands, and the third-year quarterback has responded brilliantly. Luck leads all quarterbacks in passing yards and touchdowns. He's dropped back 45 times more than the second-most-used quarterback in the league. He's fifth in quarterback runs. 

Despite some media members' attempts to point to the Colts' revamped rushing game, the Colts are actually running the ball worse than they did over the 2013 season. 

Year	Run DVOA	Run EPA	Run WPA	Yards/Carry	Run %
2013	3.1% (11)	+17.6 (6)	+1.09 (9)	4.25 (13)	39.8% (21)
2014	-18.0% (25)	-12.3 (27th)	-0.24 (25th)	4.01 (21)	38.8% (24)

No, this offense is about Luck and his myriad of pass-catchers. His connection with T.Y. Hilton is as strong as ever, and Hilton leads the league in receiving yards. Dwayne Allen has returned to form, and has been a force as a receiver, whether or not the Colts are near the goal line. Reggie Wayne has been a much-needed boost on third down, and with the addition of Donte Moncrief, the Colts' downfield attack is more potent than ever. 

That last point may be the most crucial. Luck has been extremely impressive throwing the ball deep down the field, much more accurate than he was as a rookie or in 2013. 

During the Colts' loss to the Steelers, it was Luck's downfield passing that kept them in the game. Some of his throws down the field were absolutely perfect. Like his touchdown pass to Allen, or his touchdown to Moncrief. He was making these big plays despite getting consistent pressure from the Steelers. With defenders at his feet for the entire game, it's astounding that he was as accurate down the field as he was, as his ability to step up into the pocket was severely impeded. 

Great quarterbacks mean that a team has a chance in any game. Despite the defense having one of the worst days in Colts history, the Colts were still in the game in the fourth quarter because of Luck, because of that passing attack. The offense scored 34 points on the road, it doesn't matter if there was a pick-six and a safety, that should be enough to win. 

Yes, the defense will have problems, but that doesn't mean the Colts' shot at a Super Bowl has disappeared. The playoffs are a crapshoot every single year. Sometimes the favored team wins, sometimes they lose. 

What's nearly always true is that the winning team gets a great performance from their quarterback. For the Colts, Andrew Luck has become a quarterback that you count on for a great performance every week. 

Just get into the playoffs with a great quarterback, and you have a chance to win any game. That's all you can ask for.