Why Elfrid Payton Could Emerge as the Biggest Surprise of the NBA Rookie Class
Who's that guy with all the hair?
Soon enough, everyone will be able to identify Elfrid Payton without a second thought, recognizing his impassioned defensive play, long and lanky frame and undeniable potential for the Orlando Magic. Even if he's now a more nondescript member of the star-studded rookie class set to begin its NBA journey when the season kicks off at the end of October, he won't function as such for long.
Other first-year players have drawn more attention, sure.
Andrew Wiggins was the subject of nonstop speculation before he was pulled out of trading purgatory and sent to the Minnesota Timberwolves. Any big-time prospect from Duke is bound to receive plenty of coverage, and Jabari Parker was no exception to the rule. Between Julius Randle, Doug McDermott, Dante Exum, Marcus Smart and plenty others, the list goes on and on.
Nonetheless, the small-school point guard is poised to emerge as one of the biggest surprises in this crop of NBA rookies.
College Experience
The transition from college basketball (or an international league) is always a tough one, but it can be even more daunting for players who aren't as far removed from running the show on their high-school squads.
One-and-done point guards typically have a lot of appeal for NBA teams due to their vast reserves of untapped potential and the potential for them to remain on a squad longer before moving out of their athletic primes.
However, lately we've seen a few small-school point guards enjoy an easier transition, largely because they benefited from their increased levels of experience. Playing for the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns may not have given Payton as much high-level work as guys who went to schools in power conferences, but staying for years makes his learning curve a bit less extreme.
In the five draft classes prior to this current one, there were 14 point guards selected in the lottery. Three of those floor generals were seniors (C.J. McCollum, Damian Lillard, Jimmer Fredette), two were juniors (Kemba Walker, Stephen Curry), four were sophomores (Trey Burke, Michael Carter-Williams, Kendall Marshall, Jonny Flynn), three were freshmen (Kyrie Irving, Brandon Knight, John Wall) and two came from international teams (Ricky Rubio and Brandon Jennings).
For the sake of this graph, we're going to throw the international products out of the mix but take a gander at how everyone else fared during their respective rookie seasons:
It should be the juniors and seniors who impress you the most.
While the freshmen's numbers are comparable—and in some cases better—that last group of columns is quite telling. They were drafted much earlier in the proceedings, so it stands to reason they're going to be good players.
It's the older point guards who are outperforming their draft slots and thus emerging as steals and surprises.
The best example in recent years is Damian Lillard, who came out of Weber State, was selected at No. 6 by the Portland Trail Blazers and went on to thrive during his first go-round at the professional level. That's the model Payton will be hoping to follow when he starts suiting up during the regular season for the Magic.
As a junior, the floppy-haired point guard built upon a strong sophomore campaign, averaging 19.2 points, 6.0 rebounds, 5.9 assists, 2.3 steals and 0.6 blocks per game. He also shot 50.9 percent from the field and earned a 25.2 player efficiency rating, per Sports-Reference.com.
But the numbers aren't all that important, especially since many of them came against severely overmatched competition. The larger benefit comes from his additional experience learning how to run an offense and settle in as a key defensive stopper.
"When I sat back and watched him play, I just said to myself, 'Wow, that’s a NBA player.' A lot of times you can’t see that in college players," Lillard himself explained to NBA.com's John Denton about Payton. "Some of them have all of the hype, but you just can't see pro potential in them. But with Elfrid, I knew he would be good at the NBA level."
Of course, not every upperclassman goes on to excel at the next level. It's far easier to make that transition without skipping too many beats when you have at least one premier skill at your disposal.
Defense, Defense, Defense
If you haven't watched Payton play in college, during summer league or in one of his early preseason games, you'll inevitably be blown away by how big he is the first time you lay eyes on him in live action.
The point guard's 6'4" frame already allows him to see over most defenders and rotate to work against multiple positions when he's on the less-glamorous end, and that's not even the most impressive physical tool at his disposal. His wingspan measured in at an impressive 6'8" at the draft combine, and those long arms will help him constantly pester whoever he's guarding.
Payton does need to gain strength so he can avoid being pushed around by more physical players, but he's already working with a nice defensive profile heading into his rookie season. He's a great athlete, though not necessarily one with elite explosion, and his lateral quickness allows him to stay in front of most players.
During his final season with the Cajuns, the big floor general was named the Sun Belt's Defensive Player of the Year, and he also received the Lefty Driesell Award, a prestigious honor awarded to the NCAA's best defensive stalwart.
How's that for taking advantage of a small-school schedule?
His quick feet and size made him a nightmare for opposing point guards, and they also allowed him to switch onto bigger assignments. He even guarded Doug McDermott during the NCAA tournament, which isn't something most 1-guards would ever be comfortable attempting, much less doing so quite successfully.
"With Payton as a fascinating foundational prospect alongside Victor Oladipo, there's a different feeling inside the franchise: relief is coming to the rebuild," wrote the Orlando Sentinel's Brian Schmitz. "For defensive reasons alone, they should pair these piranhas together as if Oladipo and Payton will be their backcourt until 2025."
He hasn't looked overmatched during the Magic's opening trio of preseason games. According to RealGM.com, his defensive rating is a solid 99.6, which puts him right in the middle of the pack for his team—not bad for a point guard gaining his sea legs in a portion of the season that typically features a lot of scoring.
It's hard to argue with that sentiment.
His offense is still coming along, but he has a luxury many rookies don't. He's already quite adept in one major niche of the NBA game.
Defense may not be as glamorous as offense, but it helps win games—and championships, as the saying goes.
Immediate Opportunity
Because of that NBA-ready skill, Payton doesn't figure to spend too much time on the bench throughout his first go-round in the big leagues. In fact, there's a solid chance he could start on opening night and never relinquish his hold on one of the five premier spots in the lineup, something the Magic were hesitant to let Oladipo do.
As this excerpt from Denton's article shows, the point guard feels like he's ready for such an opportunity. Perhaps more importantly, so too do his coaches:
"'You definitely have to be fearless,' the point guard with the floppy hair said. 'Me being a point guard you have to be the leader. Guys have to know that you aren't scared of anything and that you are ready to lead. It's just part of the job.'
[Orlando head coach Jacque] Vaughn said the Magic are still contemplating just how much to put on the platter of a rookie like Payton, while making sure not to overload him right away. The Magic were extremely patient last season with Oladipo, using him both off the bench and as a starter. Vaughn said that Payton has a different temperament and different skills and that they will challenge him on a daily basis while also taking his youth into account.
'We have a different team this year, so Elfrid's framework could be different than how we approached Vic's opportunity,' Vaughn said. 'But we'll continue to challenge him with opportunities and see how he deals with them. We'll give him all that he can handle and see what he does.'
"
Who else is going to start for this team, though?
Without Jameer Nelson on the roster anymore, the spot is up for grabs, and Payton's ceiling is so much higher than either Luke Ridnour or Peyton Siva's. He's going to struggle offensively, as he has throughout the preseason, but that shouldn't prevent a rebuilding team from allowing him to gain chemistry with the starters and learn through a trial by fire.
"He's beyond his years," Ridnour told Schmitz about his rookie teammate, sharing a sentiment that seems to be rather commonplace around the Orlando-based organization. "You can tell he's poised. He makes the right decisions."
It's this maturity that should help him handle a large workload right off the bat.
Payton is already a quality defender who thrives in transition and when he's able to drive into the teeth of a defense. He has all the physical tools you could ask for from a point guard, and a reliable jumper is one of the few missing weapons in his ever-growing arsenal.
Maybe he doesn't have the upside of a Wiggins, Parker or Zach LaVine, but he sure fits into the mold of a long-term starter at the NBA's deepest position. Even if his name hasn't come up as often as many of his fellow lottery picks, it will in the future.
His role with the Magic will give him a head start, as will his defensive chops and experience serving as the leader of a team that advanced to the NCAA tournament, largely as a result of his accolade-earning exploits.
If all goes according to plan for Orlando, it won't be long before Payton's hair is an afterthought, not the opener of so many conversions about him.
.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
