St. Louis Cardinals vs. SF Giants: Keys for Each Team to Win NLCS Game 3

The St. Louis Cardinals and San Francisco Giants will face off in Game 3 of the National League Championship Series on Tuesday with the series tied at two games apiece.

The matchup between the two Senior Circuit heavyweights figured to be an even one, and it’s lived up to that billing through two games so far.

The Giants took Game 1 on the back of a dominating performance from Madison Bumgarner, shutting out the Cardinals in St. Louis. Then, the Cardinals enjoyed a walk-off solo homer from Kolten Wong in the bottom of the ninth inning in Game 2 to even the series.

For Game 3, the Cardinals will throw Boston Red Sox import John Lackey against the Giants’ Tim Hudson in San Francisco in a battle of two veteran right-handed starters. It’s another fairly even matchup in what promises to be a very competitive series.

With the Cardinals and Giants so evenly matched, what does each team have to do to gain an edge in Game 3? Let’s take a look at a few keys for success for both teams, as well as what the NLCS has taught us about the Cards and Giants so far.

Giants: Exploit the Absence of Yadier Molina

David J. Phillip/Associated Press

The Giants suffered one of 2014’s most crushing postseason losses to this point on Sunday night when Wong hit a walk-off solo homer against Sergio Romo in the bottom of the ninth.

Yet St. Louis’ victory was bittersweet, as Yadier Molina, perhaps the team's best overall player, left with an oblique injury in the bottom of the sixth inning.

Despite the injury, manager Mike Matheny is keeping Molina on the NLCS roster, per CSNBayArea.com’s Andrew Baggarly, most likely because taking Molina off would disqualify him from World Series play should the Cardinals advance.

But it’s tough to see how Molina could start any games in the near future given his injury, and that provides tremendous opportunity for the Giants.

Molina’s reputation as one of baseball’s best defensive catchers is well-earned. He threw out a ridiculous 48 percent of would-be base stealers in 2014, and he is at 45 percent for his career.

Molina’s likely replacements, A.J. Pierzynski and Tony Cruz, pale in comparison. Pierzynski threw out just 14 percent of runners this year and is at 24 percent for his career, while Cruz is at 25 percent this year and 31 percent for his career.

The Giants aren’t an especially run-happy team, having stolen just 56 bases during the regular season and just two this postseason. But with Molina out of the equation, players like Gregor Blanco and Hunter Pence should look to swipe a base or two on Tuesday.

Cardinals: Consider Oscar Taveras over Randal Grichuk

David J. Phillip/Associated Press

Oscar Taveras showed why he’s one of baseball’s most highly touted prospects in Game 2, mashing a pinch-hit solo homer off Jean Machi in the seventh inning to tie the game.

The 22-year-old had received just four plate appearances in the NLDS. This was his first NLCS at-bat, so his postseason exposure has been quite limited to this point.

That should change on Tuesday. While Randal Grichuk has been getting the nod over Taveras in right field, St. Louis should seriously consider starting the left-handed-hitting Taveras against Tim Hudson instead.

Hudson was significantly tougher on right-handed hitters than lefties this season, holding righties to a .258/.283/.384 line while suffering a .281/.327/.428 line from southpaws.

The right-handed Grichuk hit just .250/.308/.354 against right-handed pitching this season, and he showed a platoon split in the minor leagues, too.

Taveras provides the Cardinals with a higher-upside offensive option, and in the wake of Molina leaving the lineup, it’s reasonable to suggest they need more pop.

This isn’t to say that starting Grichuk is without merit. He’s an infinitely better defensive outfielder at this stage in his career, and AT&T Park has a cavernous outfield. But loading the lineup with lefties is a decent strategy against Hudson, and Grichuk can always be added as a defensive replacement late in the game.

Giants: Don’t Let Matt Adams Face Righty Relievers

Jeff Roberson/Associated Press

The Giants learned this lesson the hard way when they let Hunter Strickland face Matt Adams in the bottom of the eighth inning in Game 2, but it’s a lesson they should take to heart: Feed Adams a steady stream of lefties out of the bullpen.

Adams hit a whopping .318/.349/.489 against right-handed pitching—numbers that would make him one of the best offensive first basemen in the league. Against southpaws, however, he was useless, hitting .190/.231/.298.

The Giants have just two lefties in their bullpen in Jeremy Affeldt and Javier Lopez, but at least one should be kept in reserve to deal specifically with Adams.

The other notable lefties they could face in St. Louis’ lineup just aren’t as dangerous, with Jon Jay actually showing a reverse platoon split and Matt Carpenter less likely to do damage with one swing of the bat.

Adams might not seem like the type of hitter for which you truly need to plan your bullpen usage, but San Francisco paid the price for giving Adams a righty to feast upon on Sunday night.

If at all possible, Adams shouldn’t face right-handers past the seventh inning again in the series.

Cardinals: Keep Trevor Rosenthal on a Shorter Leash

Mark J. Terrill/Associated Press

Rosenthal earned a reputation as one of the best young closers in the game after dominating 2012 and 2013 campaigns that saw him earn 2.4 fWAR in just 78 innings, according to FanGraphs.

He can run his fastball up to 99 mph, as he did several times in Game 2, and he has a respectable smattering of secondary pitches, too.

But Rosenthal has been extraordinarily wild in 2014, seeing his walk rate jump from 6.4 percent in 2013 to 13.6 percent this year. Such wildness killed much of his value during the regular season.

The wildness reared its ugly head in the ninth inning of Game 2 as well. Rosenthal waked two of the six batters he faced, uncorked a wild pitch and was all over the place, unable to find the strike zone with any consistency.

Matheny doesn’t need to consider replacing Rosenthal as the closer yet—he allowed just one earned run in three innings in the NLDS and is still quite effective when he’s on—but Rosenthal needs to be on a shorter leash than other late-inning relievers more deserving of trust.

There should always be someone warming up behind Rosenthal in close games, and Matheny can’t be afraid to pull him if he can’t find the strike zone after his first two hitters.

St. Louis has too many talented options in its bullpen to let Rosenthal sink its chances with his inconsistency. If Rosenthal falters again, players like Pat Neshek, Carlos Martinez and Seth Maness are ready to take his place.

Both: Trust Your Starters on Extra Rest

Patrick Semansky/Associated Press

Tim Hudson has not pitched since October 4, when he went 7.1 innings, allowing one earned run and striking out eight against the Washington Nationals in Game 2 of the NLDS.

John Lackey hasn’t taken the mound since October 6, when he gave up one run in 7.0 innings against the Dodgers.

That means both veteran right-handed starters are more than well-rested for their Game 3 NLCS matchup, and both figure to be quite effective thanks to the extra layoff.

As FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal explained on Monday, both the 39-year-old Hudson and the soon-to-be 36-year-old Lackey are at the points in their careers where extra rest makes a big difference. Given that Lackey has over 2,200 innings on his arm and Hudson has passed the 3,000-inning mark, that should come as no surprise.

With that in mind, look for both starters to be sharp on Tuesday, with Lackey limiting walks and generating strikeouts and Hudson inducing many ground balls. Pitcher-friendly AT&T Park should help, too, and we could be treated to a classic pitchers’ duel in Game 3.