Sports Marketwatch: NBA Playoffs Edition

By The Team at SportsInsights.com

Welcome to this week's edition of the Sports Marketwatch – NBA Edition, where the Team at SportsInsights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NBA point-spread marketplace. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketwatch!  The NBA Edition of the Sports Marketwatch will be published weekly, on Friday’s, normally by 5PM, Eastern Time. 

The staff at SportsInsights.com speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding.  We’ll take a look at what’s in store for upcoming NBA games.

Sports Marketplace – NBA Playoff Edition

Last weekend, Atlanta stayed tough with the Celtics and forced a Game 7.  Their outright win at home (they even had +8.5 points!) in Game 6 led to a winning selection for the Sports MarketWatch – and nearly one of the biggest upsets in recent playoff series history.  Let’s see what contrarian values SportsInsights’ statistics show this weekend.  

2007-08 NBA Games to Watch: 19-23-2 = 45.2%

*Source: SportsInsights.com

Sports MarketWatch – Playoff Games to Watch

Utah Jazz -4.5 over Los Angeles Lakers (Friday)

Our contacts at offshore books tell us that some early sharps took Utah and moved the line slightly in that direction.  Overall, the public is still riding the high-flying Lakers, with almost 60% of the bets on the LA. 

The line opened at Utah -3.5 at home – and has moved to Utah -5 at most sportsbooks.  The line moved in this direction (favoring the Utah Jazz more) even with 60% of the bets landing on the Lakers.  This is a sign that “big money” is taking Utah at home. 

The Kobe Bryant-led Lakers have been playing great ball and lead the series 2-0.  However, as we have seen in these playoffs, home court DOES mean something.  We’ll “sell” the Lakers at a high and take the Jazz, just like the sharps are doing.  Look for Utah to get back into the series at home.  Utah -4.5 is still available at a few books.

Utah Jazz -4.5

Detroit Pistons +5 over Orlando Magic (Saturday)

With about 80% of the bets getting down on Orlando, there is value on “betting against the public” and taking Detroit.  The line opened at Orlando -4.5, but the barrage of bets on Orlando extended the line to -5.  By tip-off, the line could be larger. 

Detroit and Orlando were both first place teams during the regular season.  Detroit had a .720 winning percentage while Orlando had a .634 record.  This is one reason we like Detroit.   Orlando’s record at home wasn’t much better than their road record.  This is another reason we like Detroit.  Detroit won games one and two convincingly, while Orlando won game three at home convincingly.  We’ll look for Detroit to ** at least ** stay close in this game, and perhaps “break serve” – to take a series lead.  Let’s take Detroit and the points.

Detroit Pistons +5  

Games to Watch: 19-23-2 = 45.2%

Utah Jazz -4.5

Detroit Pistons +5  

It should be another exciting weekend in the sports marketplace.  Keep Sports MarketWatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.

We’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch – NBA Edition.

Enjoy the games!