Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers surprisingly have as many wins as the New Orleans Saints after pulling off a come-from-behind road victory last week and will try to make it two in a row Sunday when they visit the Saints in an NFC South divisional matchup. The Bucs stunned the Pittsburgh Steelers 27-24 as seven-point road underdogs while the Saints were surprised by the Dallas Cowboys in a 38-17 loss last Sunday night as three-point road favorites.

Point spread: The Saints opened as 12-point favorites; the total was 48 (Line updates and matchup report). 

Odds Shark computer prediction: 21.4-12.6 Saints

Why the Buccaneers can cover the spread

Tampa Bay looked like a completely different team in the win at Pittsburgh, showing the ability to throw the football and stretch the field with second-year quarterback Mike Glennon under center. That was not the case with veteran Josh McCown in the first three games, and his thumb injury opened up an opportunity for Glennon to shine.

Glennon threw for 302 yards and two touchdowns against the Steelers, including the game-winning score to wide receiver Vincent Jackson with seven seconds remaining. Tampa Bay also got running back Doug Martin back from a knee injury, and his return can only help Glennon continue to improve as the team’s offense gets more balanced.

Why the Saints can cover the spread

New Orleans is still trying to figure things out on the road, but at home, this team is nearly unbeatable. The Saints have won nine straight home games, including all eight played at the Superdome last season. They are an incredible 20-3-1 against the spread (ATS) in their past 24 there, including 8-0-1 during the winning streak. Whatever the team’s problems are right now, playing at home should be exactly what is needed to get back on track.

New Orleans is also 8-1 ATS in its last nine home games against NFC South opponents and 3-0 vs. the line at home in the past three meetings with the Bucs.

Smart Pick

It’s difficult to go against New Orleans at home in this spot. The Saints are hosting a Tampa Bay team that is just 2-8 ATS in its last 10 road games against divisional foes. They have also come through as double-digit favorites twice during their home winning streak, including a 42-17 victory as 10.5-point chalk against the Bucs in Week 17 of last year.

Glennon struggled a bit in that loss, completing just 22 of 41 passes for 219 yards with two touchdowns and one interception. Meanwhile, New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees torched Tampa Bay’s secondary for 381 yards and four touchdowns without throwing a pick. Look for a similar performance from Brees here as the Saints win in a rout.

Trends

• Tampa Bay is 7-15 straight up in its last 22 games when playing on the road against New Orleans.
• The total has gone under in four of New Orleans's last five games when playing at home against Tampa Bay.

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark. Follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line-move updates.