2009 Projection: Maurice Jones-Drew

It feels like fantasy owners have been waiting for Maurice Jones-Drew to become an elite fantasy running back for years.  He’s never rushed for more than 1,000 yards or carried the ball more than 197 times (which he did last season), thanks to sharing carries with Fred Taylor since being drafted in the second round of 2006 out of UCLA.

Taylor is gone, now calling New England home, and Jones-Drew will finally get an opportunity to be the featured back. In fact, his potential back-ups rushed the ball for a total of four carries last season and a whopping nine yards. The only other back that has significant carries is Alvin Pearman, who set his career high with 39 carries back in 2005. Needless to say, the offense is going to be on Jones-Drew’s shoulders.

At 5′7″ and a little more than 200 pounds, there is concern that he may not be able to handle the beating a full-time back takes, and those are fair. He is shorter then Tiki Barber (5′10″), but we all know what Barber proved capable of doing.

Jones-Drew has shown over the past three seasons that he could make an impact, despite not carrying the ball all that often. You cannot forget to factor in the times he received a pass.

Last season he set a career high with 62 receptions, after amassing 86 over his first two seasons. Even if he were not to improve on that number with full-time snaps, very few backs supplement tremendous rushing ability with his type of receiving threat out of the backfield. Only Matt Forte (63) caught more passes, with six other running backs recorded 50-plus catches. Needless to say, it’s a huge advantage.

Jones-Drew will also benefit from one of the strongest offensive lines in the game. As well as getting back three starters back who missed at least part of last season, the team added Tra Thomas, a Pro Bowl left tackle, as a free agent signing and used their first-round pick (No. 8 overall) on Eugene Monroe. Adding those two pieces to an already strong line should give Jones-Drew plenty of holes to run through.

Let’s get one thing straight: Jones-Drew is a definite risk (outside of PPR leagues), especially if he’s being selected among the top-two players on draft day. He’s never had the opportunity to be the main back in the NFL so there is no telling how he is going to react. 

With a career yards per carry of 4.8 to go along with a great receiving threat out of the backfield and a great line leading the way, this should be his chance to really shine, but you never know.

If asked to project out his season statistics, I would say:

Rushing: 1,275 yards, 13 TD
Receiving: 550 yards, 3 TD

That certainly equals a monster back, doesn’t it? Still, for me, the risk doesn’t equate to the reward. I’d much rather take an Adrian Peterson or Michael Turner with those first two picks.

What do you think?  Where would you peg his numbers for 2009?

This article is also featured on www.rotoprofessor.com/football