Predicting the 10 Biggest Breakout Stars of the 2014 MLB Postseason
Having a breakout season is a challenge for most players. Pulling it off in the postseason, when playing time is limited and every next play could potentially determine the season, is another story.
However, every year there are players who do just that, as they go from little-known prospects or under-appreciated veterans to playoff heroes and household names seemingly overnight.
With the playoff games set to begin Tuesday night, it’s time to preview some of the players who appear primed for a breakout performance this October.
Here’s a look at the biggest potential breakout stars for the 2014 postseason.
Brandon Finnegan, LHP, Kansas City Royals
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Brandon Finnegan’s path to the major leagues this season is similar to Chris Sale’s in 2010, as he was drafted in the first round (No. 17 overall) out of college and rushed through the minors to be used in The Show down the stretch.
The 21-year-old left-hander began his professional career at High-A Wilmington, where he posted a 0.60 ERA, allowed five hits and fanned 13 batters in 15 innings.
The Kansas City Royals moved him up to Double-A Northwest Arkansas in early August to work out of the bullpen, and the southpaw responded to the challenge by posting a 2.25 ERA with 13 strikeouts over 12 innings.
As expected, the Royals called him up to the major leagues Sept. 1.
Finnegan made his big league debut Sept. 6 with two perfect innings at Yankee Stadium, the first of which saw him breeze through the heart of the Yankees lineup.
In general, the southpaw has impressed over his seven appearances this month out of the Royals bullpen, posting a 1.29 ERA with 10 strikeouts in seven innings.
Finnegan has made a very strong case for a spot on the Royals' postseason roster, especially because he’s been effective against both right- and left-handed hitters, and it wouldn’t be surprising if he gets the nod over Scott Downs.
Manager Ned Yost has shown confidence in the 21-year-old over the last month, and that should continue into the playoffs.
Kolten Wong, 2B, St. Louis Cardinals
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Kolten Wong’s overall season batting line of .249/.292/.388 certainly leaves something to be desired, but it's important to remember that he missed time this season with a variety of injuries.
The 23-year-old Wong had been one of the Cardinals’ more productive hitters since returning from the disabled list (shoulder) July 6, batting .262/.298/.443 with 11 home runs, nine doubles and 26 RBI over 262 plate appearances. He also stole 11 bases in 14 attempts during that time frame.
Overall, Wong has shown a high-end combination of power and speed this season, with 12 home runs and 20 steals in 24 attempts, all while solidifying second base defensively.
However, the lineup shuffle at second base in September has led to Wong starting against right-handers, while Pete Kozma has played himself into more opportunities against lefties.
While both players potentially could be used in a similar platoon role this October, Wong should receive a majority of the at-bats and starts against the Dodgers in the NLDS, with Kozma coming off the bench for matchup or defensive reasons.
Tanner Roark, RHP, Washington Nationals
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With a starting rotation featuring Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann, Gio Gonzalez and Doug Fister, the Washington Nationals appear primed for a deep run into the postseason.
However, one name is absent from the Nats’ projected postseason rotation: right-hander Tanner Roark.
The unsung hero of Washington’s staff this season, Roark was 15-10 with a 2.85 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 31 starts, striking out 138 batters against 39 walks in 198.2 innings.
But given the success of the Nats’ other starters, there’s a chance the 27-year-old will be relegated to a bullpen role in October.
"Obviously, we don't know the rotation—yet. We'll just wait and see," Roark said via Bill Ladson of MLB.com. "If I'm starting, that's great. If I'm in the bullpen, I'm fine with that, too. Anything to help out the team. Every time I get on the mound, I'll attack the zone, pitch inside."
Roark has less experience as a reliever but has pitched well in the role over the last two years, with a 1.19 ERA, .182/.247/.195 opponents’ batting line and 19 strikeouts in 22.2 innings.
John Holdzkom, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
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John Holdzkom certainly wasn’t the most notable prospect called up on Sept. 1, but he may have been the most interesting.
Holdzkom, 26, last pitched professionally in 2012 in the California League, when he posted a 5.19 ERA with 13 walks in 8.2 innings for High-A Bakersfield (Reds).
He spent parts of the last two years pitching for Amarillo and Sioux City in the Independent American Association, which is where the Pittsburgh Pirates saw him and promptly signed him as a free agent.
The 6’7” right-hander was assigned directly to Double-A Altoona after signing, where he fanned 10 batters and allowed just one hit over six innings.
Holdzkom’s success continued after moving up to Triple-A Indianapolis, as he saved two games and pitched to a 2.49 ERA with 27 strikeouts in 21.2 innings before having his contract selected as a September call-up.
Holdzkom—who officially brought the palm ball (or as he calls it, “The Palmer”) back to the major leagues—has been lights-out in his seven appearances out of the Pirates bullpen, as he struck out the side in his big league debut and recorded his first save a few days later.
Overall, Holdzkom allowed two runs on four hits and two walks, and he fanned 14 batters in nine innings out of the Pirates’ bullpen.
Mark Melancon has the closer role locked down heading into the postseason, but Holdzkom has emerged as an unexpected weapon capable of bridging the gap to the ninth inning.
Adam Dunn, DH, Oakland Athletics
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Traded to Oakland on Aug. 31 after spending the last three-and-a-half years with the Chicago White Sox, Adam Dunn will be making his first postseason appearance after 14 years and 2,001 games in the major leagues.
Dunn, 34, posted a disappointing .212/.316/.318 batting line with 27 strikeouts in 25 games as the A’s designated hitter over the final month of the regular season, though he did hit a pair of home runs—the first coming in his first at-bat with the A’s—and drive in 10 runs.
However, despite his late-season struggles, it’s hard to discount the impact potential of a player with 462 career home runs, such as Dunn.
Royals manager Ned Yost agrees (via Phil Rogers of MLB.com):
"Adam Dunn can hit the ball out of the ballpark to any field, even in our big park here. He's crushed balls here. We know he's a high on-base percentage guy, and he's a guy who can catch one and put three runs on the board in a hurry. He's a guy you're going to have to pitch carefully.
"
Dunn is a .200 hitter with one home run against James Shields, the Royals’ starting pitcher in Tuesday’s AL Wild Card Game. At the same time, his 35 at-bats against the right-hander is more than any other A’s hitter.
J.D. Martinez, LF, Detroit Tigers
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As one of the biggest surprises of the 2014 season, it would only be fitting if J.D. Martinez furthered his breakout campaign with a strong postseason.
The Tigers signed Martinez during the offseason after three inconsistent seasons with the Houston Astros, targeting him as a potential platoon option based on his knack for hitting left-handed pitching.
However, Martinez blew past all expectations out of the gate and eventually hit himself into an everyday role with the club. He finished the regular season with a .315/.358/.553 batting line, 23 home runs, 30 doubles and 76 RBI while playing in 123 games.
Martinez’s reputation as a streaky hitter is what makes him particularly dangerous in a postseason series. When he’s hot, Martinez is a run-producing machine capable of hitting for both average and power. When he's off, however, Martinez struggles to control the strike zone and tends to pile up strikeouts.
The good news, at least for Tigers fans, is that Martinez is coming off one of his better months of the season after batting .354/.411/.594 with six home runs, three doubles and 17 RBI in 26 September games.
Zach Britton, LHP, Baltimore Orioles
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Zach Britton, 26, was outstanding after taking over as Baltimore’s closer in mid-May, recording 37 saves in 41 chances while pitching to a 1.96 ERA with 47 strikeouts in 55 innings.
The left-hander was especially dominant down the stretch, rattling off 17 consecutive scoreless appearances during which he saved 12 games and held opposing hitters to a .151/.237/.189 batting line.
Overall, opposing hitters batted .178/.248/.252 with 46 hits (four home runs) against Britton in 76.1 innings.
Even though Britton made a smooth transition to his new role, it’s important to remember that he had zero closing experience headed into the season. That being said, it’s hard to deny the impact he’s had this season as the O’s ninth-inning guy, and there’s no reason to expect his success won’t carry into the postseason.
Brandon Belt, 1B, San Francisco Giants
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All signs pointed to Brandon Belt having a breakout 2014, and it was certainly shaping up that way after he began the season with a .264/.317/.504 batting line and nine home runs through 35 games.
Unfortunately, the 26-year-old first baseman suffered a fractured left thumb in early May after he was hit by a pitch, and the subsequent surgery and recovery resulted in nearly a two-month stint (50 games) on the disabled list.
Belt returned to the Giants' lineup in early July and batted .167 over his first 11 games, but he landed on the seven-day disabled list on July 20 after being struck with a thrown ball during batting practice.
Belt came off the shelf on schedule on Aug. 2, but recurring concussion symptoms forced the Giants to place him on the 15-day disabled list. The left-handed hitter missed the Giants’ next 34 games before rejoining the team on Sept. 15.
After failing to collect a hit in his first eight plate appearances back from injury, Belt finished the season on a positive note by hitting safely in five of his final six games. He batted .381/.458/.619 batting line with three extra-base hits in 24 plate appearances during that time frame.
Finally healthy, Belt will be looking to make up for his lost time this season with a strong showing in October. And if the Giants can get past the Pirates and reach the NLDS, I think that’s what will happen.
Chris Tillman, RHP, Baltimore Orioles
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When the Orioles last reached the postseason in 2012, manager Buck Showalter decided to start veteran Joe Saunders over Chris Tillman in Game 4 of the ALDS.
This year, Tillman returns the postseason as the O’s ace and obvious Game 1 starter in the upcoming ALDS.
The 2014 season was a story of two halves for Tillman, as he struggled to the tune of a 4.11 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in 20 starts before the All-Star break.
After that, however, the 24-year-old right-hander righted the ship and pitched to a stellar 6-1 record, 2.33 ERA and 1.01 WHIP over his final 14 regular season starts. He walked only 18 batters in 89 innings during that span after issuing 48 free passes in 118.1 frames in the first half.
"There's a lot of people with good stuff," center fielder Adam Jones said of Tillman, via Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com. "But he has it between his ears. That hunger, that want. I can see it in his eyes. Especially the second half, there's a look in his eye. He wants the ball, and when a pitcher has that, has that confidence, the only thing that can slow him down is himself."
Tillman will have his hands full with a dangerous Tigers lineup in Game 1. However, after his dominant performance over the second half of the season, the right-hander finally seems ready for baseball’s biggest stage.
Bryce Harper, OF, Washington Nationals
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The Washington Nationals finished the regular season with an NL-best 96-66 record, clinching home-field advantage through the postseason. However, it’s possible that the team would have won more than 100 games had phenom Bryce Harper not missed a majority of the season.
Harper began his second full season in the major leagues by batting .289/.352/.422 with seven extra-base hits and nine RBI through his first 22 games. The 21-year-old outfielder then suffered a thumb injury (torn UCL) on April 25 that subsequently required surgery and resulted in a lengthy two-plus-month stint on the disabled list.
Harper returned from the DL on June 30 against the Rockies to bat .150/.244/.250 with two extra-base hits and 16 strikeouts in 12 games before the All-Star break. The left-handed hitter then used the scheduled time off in mid-July to rework his swing under the guidance of his father.
Harper looked more like his usual self after making the adjustment, as he batted .288/.359/.454 with 11 home runs, five doubles and 21 RBI in 258 plate appearances following the All-Star break. The Nats, meanwhile, went 44-22 in those 66 games.
Harper struggled in the postseason in 2012 against the Cardinals, as the then-19-year-old outfielder batted just .130 with one home run in 23 plate appearances.
However, I have a feeling that Harper is poised for big things in his second taste of playoff baseball.
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