The Utah Jazz: A Lesson in Regression?

(Photo by Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images)

The Utah Jazz—A lesson in regression?

Just two years ago, you could easily have called the Utah Jazz an NBA title contender. They were a team on the rise and looked like nothing could stop them.

They vastly overachieved in 2007, making it to the Conference Finals. Though they fell to the eventual champion San Antonio Spurs 4-1, the team was feeling good and with good reason.

The next year, the team seemed to get even stronger, winning a record-tying 19 straight home games. In the second round of the playoffs, they unfortunately ran into another brilliant team, the Los Angeles Lakers, who were on their way to a Finals berth.

This past year, injuries struck the Jazz.

Both Carlos Boozer and Deron Williams missed considerable amounts of time, and the team suffered. They wound up only just getting into the playoffs as the eighth seed in a loaded Western Conference.

Again they faced the Lakers, and only narrowly avoided being swept as L.A went on to win the Championship.

Notice the pattern?

Every year since 2007, the Jazz have taken a step back in the playoffs.

If the trend continues, does that mean the Utah Jazz will miss the playoffs entirely?

Though to be fair to them, they have ran into the Conference champions each of those seasons, and the overall champions twice.

If we think about it, it is an actual possibility.

Let's look into several factors that could determine how the Jazz's season plays out next year.

The offseason:

The Jazz have been one of the most talked about teams this summer. They have been involved in as many or more trade rumours as any other team in the league. And yet, so far, the only player on the roster that wasn't there last season is first round draft pick Eric Maynor.

Maynor, a stand out at VCU, will be a nice backup at the point guard position, who will be able to learn a lot from the players around him and Coach Jerry Sloan. He averaged 22 points and six assists a game as a senior in college.

The Jazz have made a major move though.

They decided to match the offer set by the Portland Trailblazers to power forward Paul Milsap. With this move, the Jazz have shown their commitment to Milsap, who impressed many last season.

When Carlos Boozer was out with injury, Millsap stepped his game in a big way. He saved the Jazz in many games and was able to put up big numbers (much to the delight of my own fantasy team).

Now he will be the starting power forward, so will Millsap be able to regenerate that production with starter's minutes over the whole 82 games, with teams knowing to expect him now?

When Boozer came back, Millsap did slow slightly and had some small injuries, so will those resurface?

This, of course, directly relates to the trade rumours centering around Carlos Boozer.
The Jazz have confirmed they are openly trying to deal Boozer, and several possible scenarios have apparently come close to going through.

One would have sent Boozer to Chicago with the Jazz receiving Tyrus Thomas.  Another would have seen him in Miami, with Dorell Wright and Udonis Haslem going the other way.

(You'll notice both of those trade scenarios involve the Jazz getting a power forward to backup Millsap.)

No doubt several other trade possibilities will come up in the next few days, but right now it is impossible to foresee who will be joining the Jazz's roster.

We know that Boozer has left it for certain.

Injuries:

The Jazz are, without a doubt, a strong team with strong players. But last year, injuries took a toll on several of these key players. This always has an effect on team chemistry, and is the main reason why the Jazz faltered last year.

So, will these injuries be what fells the Jazz again?

Center Mehmet Okur (who has signed a two-year extension with the team) missed 10 games last year, which may not seem like a lot, but it was reported that these injuries still bothered him even though they did not keep him out of the games.

As mentioned previously, Millsap suffered several small injuries, as did small forward Anderi Kirilenko, who missed 15 games.

Deron Williams, the key to this team and easily one of the best players in the league, played in 68 games last year, missing the beginning of the year, and making him take time to get back into his groove.

Williams appears healthy now, but that will need to continue if they are to have any chance of making the postseason next year.

This guy is the man.

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