NASCAR at New Hampshire 2014: Complete Preview and Prediction for Sylvania 300
It's time for NASCAR to head back to the New Hampshire Motor Speedway for the second occasion in 2014. This time, the stakes are higher, as the Chase for the Sprint Cup is officially underway.
This is the second race in the Challenger bracket of the Chase—after next week at Dover, the postseason field will be narrowed from 16 to 12.
Last week was a thrilling start to the playoffs, as Brad Keselowski made a late pass to take the MyAFibStory.com 400 title, while rookie Kyle Larson came close to upsetting all the Chase contenders but ended up finishing third. Jeff Gordon, Joey Logano and Kevin Harvick rounded out the top five.
The Sylvania 300 is shaping up to be another enthralling installment in the Chase. Here's everything you need to know to get ready.
Fast Facts: Sylvania 300
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Sylvania 300: Race two of 10 in the Chase for the Sprint Cup
Place: New Hampshire Motor Speedway
Date: Sunday, Sept. 21
Time: 2 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN, Countdown 1 p.m; Race coverage 2 p.m. ET
Qualifying on Fox Sports 1, Friday, Sept. 20, 4:30 p.m. ET
Radio: Performance Racing Network (PRN), SiriusXM Ch. 90
Distance: 317.4 miles (300 laps)
Defending pole winner: Ryan Newman, 136.497 mph, 27.904 seconds (Sept. 20, 2013)
Defending race winner: Matt Kenseth
First Sprint Cup Series winner at New Hampshire: Rusty Wallace (1993)
Former New Hampshire winners in the Chase field: Kenseth, Keselowski, Gordon, Logano, Kevin Harvick, Jimmie Johnson, Denny Hamlin, Kyle Busch, Kurt Busch, Kasey Kahne, Newman, Greg Biffle
Best average finish at New Hampshire among active drivers: Denny Hamlin (8.941)
All statistics courtesy of NASCAR official media release.
Key Storylines
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How Will Aric Almirola Rebound from Heartbreak?
Last week at Chicagoland, Aric Almirola was in sixth place when his motor burst, and he had to pull out of the race with 37 laps to go. He told reporters on ESPN afterward, "I have never been so heartbroken, ever."
Almirola was always a long shot to advance to the next round of the Chase, but before his car gave out last weekend, he was surprising a lot of people. If he wants to keep hope alive and rebound from a bad break, he's going to have to come up with something pretty special over the next two weeks.
Can Brad Keselowski Continue to Dominate?
Keselowski won the Chase in 2012, but last year, he didn't even make the postseason. This year he's back on top, though—he's won two races in a row, including the first in the Chase for the Sprint Cup Series last week, and he's firmly on top of the standings.
He's guaranteed to advance to the next round of the Chase already no matter what he does over the next two weeks, but as Michael Vega of The Boston Globe notes, Keselowski isn't looking to slow down anytime soon. Right now, he's in a class all by himself.
Will Jimmie Johnson Find His Mojo and Make a Push for His 7th Title?
Johnson is going for his seventh Sprint Cup title, but he's not off to a great start. He finished 12th in the MyAFibStory.com 400 last week and has only two top-five finishes since winning in Michigan in June.
He's frustrated and currently eighth in the Chase standings, but as Nate Ryan of USA Today points out, Johnson hasn't won six titles by chance alone. "Though there have been episodes of extraordinary chance timing during his illustrious career, Johnson excels primarily because his battle-tested team consistently has risen to the moment," Ryan said.
Who Can Make a Big Move in the Chase for the Sprint Cup Standings?
In a little over a week, after the race at Dover, there will be four drivers eliminated in the Chase, so it's time for the guys at the bottom of the standings to make a big push. Greg Biffle, AJ Allmendinger and Ryan Newman are on the chopping block, along with Almirola, while Carl Edwards and Kasey Kahne are dangerously close to the wrong side of the cut line.
These guys will all be fighting to get out of the cellar of the standings at New Hampshire.
Top Contenders
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Brad Keselowski
It could be tempting to overlook Keselowski this week since he's already through to the next round of the Chase, but that would be a mistake. Keselowski has had more recent success at flat, one-mile tracks like New Hampshire's than anyone else in the field, and he is riding a wave of confidence that could be deadly to his competitors.
Jimmie Johnson
Johnson is going to put it all together again one of these weeks, and there's no reason it couldn't be right now at the Sylvania 300. Even though he hasn't won since June, he's finished in the top 10 in four of his last five races, and his car looked great in practice last week. Never count out a six-time champ.
Jeff Gordon
Gordon has been the runner-up to Keselowski in the past two races in a row, and he's currently a solid No. 2 behind Keselowski in the Chase standings. He'll be looking to get back into Victory Lane this week at a track he knows well—Gordon is the only driver in the field who has competed in all 39 Cup races at New Hampshire. He hasn't won a race on the track since 1998, but he's as dangerous as ever this season.
Joey Logano
Logano looked great last week at Chicagoland, finishing in fourth place, and he'll be looking to step out of Penske teammate Keselowski's shadow at New Hampshire. Logano has great memories on the track—he made his Sprint Cup debut there in 2008 and got his first win in 2009.
Kevin Harvick
Harvick led 79 laps last week at the MyAFibStory.com 400 but ended up fading at the end and finishing in fifth place. He hasn't won a race since April, but he's been steady every week and is still in a good position in the Chase. His team, Stewart-Haas Racing, recently tested at New Hampshire, so that should give him an edge.
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Potential Chase Spoiler
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Larson, a rookie, just missed out on making the Chase field, and he also just missed out on crashing the party last week at Chicagoland, where he finished in third place and led for 20 laps.
The 22-year-old is racing really well and gaining high-profile fans as he goes, as Mike Hembree of USA Today reported:
"On pit road after the race, Gordon walked over to congratulate Larson and to share some advice about restarts.
'I got in the wall, and he (Gordon) was able to get by me,' Larson said. 'It stinks that we got third, but coming up close so many times is going to make the first win that much more special."
Gordon called himself a Larson fan. 'I really wanted to see him win because I like him and I know he's going to win a lot of races,' he said. 'I like seeing young guys out there driving like that. I wanted to let him know what a great job I thought he did.'
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Larson's great race at Chicagoland should give him the confidence to challenge for the top spot again at New Hampshire. His first win will come one of these days, and it will likely happen sooner rather than later.
And the Winner Is...
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The NASCAR postseason is off to a great start, but a win from one of its biggest stars, Johnson, would kick things into high gear. That's exactly what will happen this week at New Hampshire.
Many are down on Johnson because he hasn't won since June and finished outside the top 10 last week, but it's important to remember that the Chase is a 10-week marathon, not a one-week sprint.
George Diaz of the Orlando Sentinel (subscription required) broke down why writing off Johnson due to a slow start to the Chase is foolish:
"The good news is that Johnson has the team and the skills to rebound quickly. He began the Chase in a hole last season after Matt Kenseth put together back-to-back victories, but Johnson roared back with nine top-10 finishes in the Chase to easily clinch the title at Homestead.
“We respond well to pressure and we make good decisions when pressure is put on us,” Johnson said.
The squeeze is on. Maybe it makes sense to bet against Johnson this time around.
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Every time Johnson looks to be down and out, he is able to rebound and reach new heights. He's not a perfect driver, and he's certainly not unbeatable, but he is resilient. He'll show off that quality once again at New Hampshire Motor Speedway this week.
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