Fantasy Football: The Risky 50

No matter the player, team, or year, it's bound to happen.

You draft an elite player, and he tears his knee up or breaks his leg, ending his season, and sending yours into a downward spiral.

This article is dedicated to those of you who endure the season when Terrell Davis tore his ACL, when Javon Walker and Ahman Green both went down in 2005, or when Tom Brady was lost for the season in week one last year.

It's hard to believe, but there are 50 guys (at least) who are worth the risk, but still will keep us worried from week-to-week.

Check to see if your favorite player (or one on your team) makes the list, and whether or not you should start crossing your fingers and knocking on wood.

Players made this list due to health issues, suspensions, and/or lessened roles with their teams.

(List is in no particular order.)
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Oh, and since you're unable to create more than 50 slides, No. 50 is Vernon Davis.

He has all the athleticism and speed in the world to develop, but his attitude and offense hold him back.

1. Brian Westbrook, RB, Philadelphia Eagles

When healthy, Westbrook is a top-five back, and easily worthy of a first-round selection.

However, that phrase, "when healthy" should be taken with more than just a grain of salt.

Make it a pound.

Westbrook already wasn't the poster-boy for staying healthy, but is even more of a risk now with recent surgery on his ankle.

Add the fact that he has a rookie rusher behind him (LeSean McCoy) to worry about, and all is not completely well in the Westbrook household.

2. Marshawn Lynch, RB, Buffalo Bills

With Dominic Rhodes added to a backfield that already boasted the much-hyped Fred Jackson, Lynch's overall touches are likely to take at least a small dip.

Factor in his three-game suspension to start the season, and there's reason to worry about Lynch's 2009 production.

Lynch loves to run inside, which can be attested by his four missed games in his two seasons in the league.

If he misses even two games because of his running style this year, you're looking at only 11 games out of your supposed "stud" running back.

If you can get him in the fourth round, do so, but any earlier is a reach.

3. Ronnie Brown, RB, Miami Dolphins

Before you defend Brown to death with your undying love and affection, look at his stats.

1. He's only topped 1,000 yards rushing one time (1,008.)
2. Has topped five rushing touchdowns only once (last year)
3. Has missed 11 career games in four seasons.

Brown is still a versatile back playing in an offense that could potentially make him a stud.

However, his injury history and the presence of Ricky Williams should keep him from ever truly realizing his potential.

4. Terrell Owens, WR, Buffalo Bills

He's not a risk because of injury or because of his personality.

Ultimately, his success rests in the hands of Dick Jauron and Trent Edwards.

If Edwards can make the leap to elite status, Owens will easily produce another 1,000-yard and 10-touchdown season.

But that will be difficult with another "No. 1" guy (Lee Evans) vying for looks, as well.

5. Thomas Jones, RB, New York Jets

It's as simple as this:

In 2008, with Brett Favre: 13 rushing touchdowns

In 2007 without a quality/effective quarterback: ONE touchdown

Jones is undoubtedly the lead rusher on a team that will try running the ball a ton, but he's also 32, and will be sharing the load with two other backs (Leon Washington and Shonn Greene).

Age, productivity, and playing time.

Too many things to worry about.

6. Jerricho Cotchery, WR, New York Jets

Quite honestly, Cotchery was never the "clear-cut" best receiver on his team.

Now that he is, it leaves you to wonder if it's just by default (it is), or if he's a guy you can depend on.

Theoretically, Cotchery should get you at least 1,000 yards, simply by being the No. 1 guy.

Theoretically.

Can he handle making plays with little-to-no supporting cast?

Maybe if Brett Favre was still around. Catching passes from Kellen Clemens or Mark Sanchez?

I'm not so sure about that.

7. Mark Clayton, WR, Baltimore Ravens

Mark Clayton is reportedly set to try to "recruit" Derrick Mason back to the Ravens.

Good or bad decision?

Without Mason, Clayton would immediately be "the guy" in Baltimore, and would see a ton more targets than he's used to, and would be a solid candidate for over 70 catches and 1,000 yards.

However, with Mason around, he's more explosive and a threat as a big-play receiver, while Mason would handle the intermediate game.

Clayton is far from polished, so it's easy to lean either way on his situation.

Don't draft him too much higher if Mason stays retired. His value is still close to where it is now, considering the Ravens' will to run the ball.

8. Willis McGahee, RB, Baltimore Ravens

McGahee is quickly losing ground to Ray Rice, and probably losing out on short-yardage carries to fullback, Le'Ron McClain.

With injuries and inconsistency, McGahee is likely on his way to being the third back in Baltimore, despite being rated higher than Rice (and sometimes McClain) in several rankings across the web.

Either way, it's bound to be a RBBC in Baltimore, so McGahee's stock (healthy or not) won't be too high.

9. Carson Palmer, QB, Cincinnati Bengals

Palmer says his elbow is 100 percent, he loves his offense, and the Bengals are a playoff contender.

Say what?

Lest we forget, this is the same guy who threw 20 interceptions two seasons ago, and began the first four games of last season with just three touchdowns to four interceptions.

Palmer hasn't been a truly elite and effective quarterback in almost two years.

It's going to take more than "The elbow is 100 percent" to convince me he's worth a mid-round pick.

Taking a chance on him if he falls past round seven is encouraged, though.

10. Cedric Benson, RB, Cincinnati Bengals

Will the real Cedric Benson please stand up?

Really, who are we drafting: the guy who tore it up for three games to end the 2008 season, or the Chicago Bears' first-round bust?

It's really hard to tell.

11. Chad Ochocinco, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

Staying with risky Bengals players...

Chad "whatever his last name is" is a tough call, because his poor 2008 could easily be blamed on two things:

1. No Carson Palmer
2. Too much Ryan Fitzpatrick

Seriously, too much Fitzpatrick could kill a guy's career.

Ochocinco still has the game, and with a fresh supporting cast, should rebound.

But at the same time, his rebounding depends a lot on Carson Palmer's ability to make a strong comeback.

12. Willie Parker, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers

If you can find him in the fourth round or later, you're getting a hefty steal.

Any earlier, and you might not like what you see.

If Rashard Mendenhall is healthy and cutting into his carries, the almost-30 Parker could see his production fall.

There is also the "Super Bowl hangover" to be taken into effect.

13. Braylon Edwards, WR, Cleveland Browns

Nothing has changed.

Edwards still has two young, inconsistent quarterbacks fighting to throw him passes that will inevitably be dropped.

The question is, can he catch a friggin' ball this year?

Perhaps. But do you really want to risk a pick higher than the fourth round on such a catastrophic "maybe?"

14. Jamal Lewis, RB, Cleveland Browns

The only upside with Lewis is that Cleveland will undoubtedly try to run the ball.

With less than reliable quarterback options at this juncture, Eric Mangini and Co. will implement and offense that protects the quarterback, and limits turnovers.

That means the aging Lewis should touch the ball plenty.

However, Jerome Harrison has been waiting to see major action for some time, so this could finally be his year.

Lewis is getting old, slowing down, and not moving the chains like he used to.

If there's a starting running back with a solid chance of losing his job mid-season, Lewis could be your guy.

15. Matt Schaub, QB, Houston Texans

There are four really good reasons to take a reach on Schaub this year:

Steve Slaton, Andre Johnson, Owen Daniels, and Kevin Walter.

Factor in his solid production, despite missing five games in 2008, and Schaub has fantasy gold written all over him.

It's that whole "missing five games" thing that leaves a sour taste in my mouth.

16. Joseph Addai, RB, Indianapolis Colts

With the drafting of Donald Brown, Joseph Addai is officially on "high alert".

It's too early for Indy to give-up on their feature back, as he's only had one season marred by injuries, and was an elite back in his initial two.

I am still high on Addai and suggest picking him up in rounds three or four, but if you're even slightly worried about Brown, go ahead and grab him in rounds six through eight as a quality handcuff.

17. Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars

MJD is the feature back for the first time in his career, and it's a good thing.

His experience as a starter and his size are his only real knocks, which shouldn't have you nearly as worried as some of your competition.

Besides, they're just saying those things so THEY can draft the guy.

Jones-Drew has put up at least 700 yards rushing and nine touchdowns in every season he's been in the league, and all while splitting carries with Fred Taylor.

There's still reason to doubt his rise to excellence, but I still recommend taking him.

18. Torry Holt, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars

Holt is the Jaguars new go-to guy, but whether that's a good or bad thing is yet to be determined.

The truth is, Holt, as good as he still may be, is Jacksonville's best receiver by default, and doesn't have much of a supporting cast at receiver.

That could either mean aggressive double-teams, or a ton of catches.

Playing on grass for eight home games for the first time in his career should also not be ignored.

19. Anthony Gonzalez, WR, Indianapolis Colts

Personally, I have no fear in what lies ahead for Gonzalez, and see him easily cracking 70 catches and approaching 1,000 yards.

However, he's still making a transition, and is still the third target in an offense that prefers to look to Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark ahead of anyone else.

Gonzalez wouldn't be taken before round four in most drafts, anyways, so you won't be losing out big-time if he's a bust.

20. Kevin Walter, WR, Houston Texans

Walter is a good receiver with excellent hands and solid play-making ability.

The doubt is not in his game, athleticism, speed, or ability. We know he can play.

It's just hard to stand out when you have Andre Johnson and Owen Daniels demanding targets.

Walter has the talent to reach his 2008 totals, and possibly exceed them, but I wouldn't bet on it.

With only one 100-yard effort last season, it's clear that Walter's elite performances come in spurts.

That's what happens when you share the field with one of the NFL's best wide-outs.

21. LenDale White, RB, Tennessee Titans

He's fat and cocky, but the guy packs a mean punch and can run inside the tackles with the best of them.

Still, Chris Johnson is the feature back for the Titans, and there's really no refuting it.

White may keep the majority of his goal-line carries, but it's very likely Tennessee will give the bulk of the regular carries, including third down duties, to Johnson.

22. Kyle Orton, QB, Denver Broncos

He's in a new system with new weapons, but somehow that's not a bad thing.

Orton did a decent job (almost 3,000 yards and 18 touchdowns) with average weapons in Chicago, so there's room for optimism with elite weapons in his new home (Denver).

There's still plenty of doubt, though, as well.

Orton is regarded heavily as a "system" quarterback with an average arm.

That may be so. But with weapons like Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal, those flaws may not matter.

23. Matt Cassel, QB, Kansas City Chiefs

Cassel progressed at a high rate last year in New England.

The question is, can he do that again?

He's in a new offense with a huge downgrade in offensive talent, and he'll be playing behind a much worse offensive line.

Too many questions to put your faith in a second-year starter with a new team.

24. Larry Johnson, RB, Kansas City Chiefs

Johnson can still get it done.

Judging by a 198-yard effort in a game last season, he can do it well, too.

As long as he's the starter and getting the bulk of the carries, Johnson can be an elite back.

However, past issues with the team could have him on a short leash if he acts out again.

25. Chris Chambers, WR, San Diego Chargers

Chambers was on fire to start 2008, registering five touchdowns in his first five games.

The next 11, however, weren't so kind to him, as he recorded zero touchdowns, and never topped 60 yards receiving after week two.

He's clearly the behind Vincent Jackson and Antonio Gates as far as looks are concerned, and is probably even the fourth option, behind whoever is playing running back.

Chambers can still play, but on a team loaded with talent, his numbers won't reflect it.

26. LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, San Diego Chargers

Many will have you believe that LT is washed-up and done, but there's still hope for a rebound year.

It's quite an accomplishment when you crack 1,100 yards and 10 touchdowns, and the world deems it a "down year."

Even if LT returns to full health, however, he still has Darren Sproles to worry about.

The Chargers didn't sign him to a franchise tag to let him sit.

27. Darren McFadden, RB, Oakland Raiders

McFadden has all the speed and talent in the world. The problem is, he's not the only talented rusher in Oakland.

With Michael Bush and Justin Fargas both vying for carries, McFadden is unlikely to have an elite season, even if he does claim the "starting" role.

His 2008 injury issues are also something to think about.

28. Mark Bradley, WR, Kansas City Chiefs

Bradley has great speed and can make plays, but there's an awful lot working against him.

With the addition of Matt Cassel and the loss of Tony Gonzalez, the offensive supporting cast has changed, both for the better and the worse.

A new coach and offense switches things up a bit, as well.

Todd Haley's new system should benefit Bradley and the rest of the receivers, but there are still questions to whether he can perform at a high level as a No. 2 option.

Judging by his mere 30 catches last season in a very simply spread offense...I doubt it.

29. Tony Romo, QB, Dallas Cowboys

Romo loses the big-play threat in T.O., but still has Jason Witten and a sound running game to rely on.

While Roy Williams can't replace Owens' production, Miles Austin might.

Romo is a gifted passer with Favre-like intangibles. He may not be a playoff performer, but he's an elite fantasy option, for sure.

30. Kevin Curtis, WR, Philadelphia Eagles

Curtis is a burner who can make plays and is usually a reliable receiver, rarely dropping or fumbling the ball.

However, he was inconsistent after returning from injury last year, and has had several surgeries on his groin, making him a slight injury risk again for 2009.

Add in the addition of rookie Jeremy Maclin, and receptions just got harder to come by.

31. Kevin Boss, TE, New York Giants

Boss was solid (six touchdowns) in his first post-Shockey season, but not good enough for the Giants to pass on Wisconsin's Travis Beckum.

Beckum offers more speed and athleticism, and Boss could eventually lose targets to him in double tight end sets.

Either way, Boss isn't a top-10 tight end.

32. Eli Manning, QB, New York Giants

Manning lost both Plaxico Burress and Amani Toomer, and inherited a group of fairly unproven receivers.

While the Giants run the ball a lot anyways, Manning's fantasy value certainly takes a hit.

Considering he only threw 21 touchdowns last season (and had Burress for 4-5 games), it's not looking too great for him in 2009.

33. Jason Campbell, QB, Washington Redskins

Campbell isn't a major risk for injury or a ton of turnovers, but he is a risk to bore you to death.

He doesn't take many chances, which results in mediocre fantasy stats, and an ineffective NFL offense.

If he can progress like Jim Zorn thinks he can, 3,500 yards and 20 touchdowns aren't unrealistic.

However, if he doesn't, Washington could turn to Colt Brennan, mid-season.

34. Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers

Replace Brett Favre. Check.

Register elite fantasy season. Check.

Play all 16 games. Check.

Do it again?

35. Ryan Grant, RB, Green Bay Packers

If there's one Packer I'm not sold on, it's definitely Grant.

He started 2008 slowly, and finished with a shady yards-per-carry, as well as only four touchdowns.

An effort like that again, and his 1,200 rushing yards won't be quite as impressive.

36. Jay Cutler, QB, Chicago Bears

New system and weapons for Cutler.

Will he make them better, or will they expose him as an average quarterback?

I believe he's a Pro Bowl passer, and there's enough raw talent on his roster than he can play with and mold into solid production.

But in year one? That's a lot to ask.

37. Donald Driver, WR, Green Bay Packers

Driver is 34 and resting not-so-comfortably above two receivers (Jordy Nelson and James Jones) who are arguably more talented than him right now.

D.D. is still consistent and effective, but he's lost some speed and continues to drop passes that kill drives.

He can still be an effective WR3 on your team, but aiming for any higher than that could be wishful thinking.

38. Donald Lee, TE, Green Bay Packers

Lee has been a decent source for touchdowns out of the tight end position, and judging by his 2007 stats, still has the talent to churn out some solid yardage.

However, Rodgers seems to be enamored with his receivers most of the time, and Lee is arguably the fourth or fifth receiving option in most games.

Jermichael Finley has also been rumored to be strongly pushing Lee for the starting spot.

39. Brett Favre, QB, Free Agent

If you go by 2007 and the first 11 games of 2008, Favre still has something left, and could easily get you 3,500 yards and 20+ touchdowns.

However, if you're convinced the final five games of 2008 is the real Brett Favre, you may want to stay clear.

At the same time, until Favre signs, he's still retired, so you run a risk of not having a quarterback on your roster if he doesn't come back.

40. Tony Gonzalez, TE, Atlanta Falcons

Gonzalez got it done last year, as he topped 90 receptions, 1,000 yards, and 10 touchdowns.

Now, that's what we call an elite tight end.

However, his stock takes a huge hit with the switch to Atlanta, as he is now in an offense that is not very tight end-friendly, and will have to build new chemistry with a new quarterback.

41. Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta Falcons

Many experts are rating Ryan in the top 10, and not with a whole lot of merit.

Sure, he has good weapons and showed strong poise and progress, but it's only his second season.

Also, if anyone has forgotten, let me remind you: Atlanta is a run-first team.

Even if they do get more balanced, Ryan is much more likely to have a line like 3,400 yards and 19 TD, rather than 4,000 and 28 TD.

42. DeAngelo Williams, RB, Carolina Panthers

Williams had an incredible season in 2008, scoring 18 touchdowns, despite sharing the load often with rookie Jonathan Stewart.

While he'll still be the starter and should get more carries than Stewart, his goal-line opportunities could be lessened, and his overall yardage is likely to drop, at least a little.

43. Reggie Bush, RB, New Orleans Saints

If you're down on Bush because he's not a feature back and rushing for 1,000 yards-don't be.

He's still a fantasy stud when healthy, as he carries the ball 6-12 times per game, and gets 5-10 looks in the passing game, as well.

However, several recent knee surgeries raise questions about his explosiveness, speed, and overall durability.

44. Jeremy Shockey, TE, New Orleans Saints

Shockey was active in the Saints offense last season-just not in the red-zone.

If he can stay healthy (always a big "if"), he could potentially develop better chemistry with Drew Brees, and make the Saints that much more explosive.

Considering all the other options, Brees has to choose from, though, it doesn't seem very realistic.

45. Antonio Bryant, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Bryant pieced together a fine comeback season in 2008, and could be poised for another solid season as the number one guy again in Tampa Bay.

However, with no proven (or determined) quarterback, Bryant's numbers may suffer initially.

Hey, when the receiver himself isn't sure he can have an electric season (he's not too optimistic), then his stock should drop some.

46. Kellen Winslow, TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Winslow still has the talent to be a stud, but a new offense without a proven quarterback makes you re-think 2008, all over again.

He can still produce with a bad quarterback, but over 500 yards and five scores isn't likely.

The other obstacle for Winslow is staying on the field.

47. Kurt Warner, QB, Arizona Cardinals

Warner put up elite numbers last year, and with the same returning offensive weapons, there's no reason why he can't do it again.

That is, if he can continue to defy age and injury.

Warner completed his first 16-game season in some time last season, and his 38 years of age suggest it is very unlikely that it happens again.

48. Marc Bulger, QB, St. Louis Rams

With Kyle Boller being the only backup to Bulger worth mentioning, it's likely the Rams are running with Bulger for the entire 2009 season, no matter how ugly it gets.

And it could get ugly...again.

Bulger hasn't thrown more than 11 touchdowns in two straight seasons, and the beating he's taken behind that atrocious offensive line is adding up.

Don't draft him.

49. Julius Jones, RB, Seattle Seahawks

It's becoming more clear by the year than Julius Jones would be better suited as a back-up in the NFL.

But with only the slow T.J. Duckett standing in his way, Jones will take his shot at mediocrity, I mean greatness, once again.

He has decent speed and quickness, but his vision and hands are what keep him below the good running backs in the league.