Hey, welcome to another set of MMA predictions, this time for DREAM.10, The Welterweight GP Final Round.
It's a card that has great value betting on underdogs, but due to UFC 100, seems to have been forgotten around here. Well, here's a step to remedy this.
All tips given in decimal form, the return based on putting down €1.00/$1.00/£1.00. E.g., 1.45 means that for every 1.00 you place you get 0.45 in return, along with your original 1.00.
All lines taken from Bodog.
Dong Sik Yoon vs. Jesse 'JT Money' Taylor
(84kg/185lbs)
Dong Sik Yoon
4-6-0
South Korea
+Judoka who won gold in 1994 Asian Games (78kg), 1997 Asian Championships (78kg), 2000 Asian Championships (90kg), and 2001 East Asian Games (2001)
+Good heart
+Good chin
-Judo skills have not transitioned well, struggles with takedowns more than expected
-Never gained any good striking ability
Jesse Taylor
11-3-0
USA
+Good ground and pound
+Good wrestling
+Relentless takedowns
-One dimensional
-Gives up positions
Analysis:
The best 4-6 fighter around, Yoon has been consistently tested against top competition (Sakuraba, Mousasi, Nakahara) and had mixed results. He is always dangerous in top position, and can pull off a 'dongbar' in a flash.
Taylor's biggest fight was against CB Dollaway, which he lost by Peruvian Necktie (not to be confused with a Colombian Necktie). Taylor has a weakness with grappling, so Yoon should have a decisive grappling advantage here when the fight hits the ground, regardless of whether he's on top or on bottom.
My Take:
Yoon by arm-, I mean dongbar, Round 1. Yoon enters at 1.44, and Taylor enters at 2.75, so while being heavy favourite, Yoon should not be in too much danger here. Taylor will hardly KO him and won't submit him, obviously. Doubt he'll grind out a decision either.
Melvin 'Marvelous' Manhoef vs. Paulo 'Ely' Filho
(84kg/185lbs)
Melvin Manhoef
23-5-1
The Netherlands
+Nightmarish KO power
+Extremely experienced K-1 kickboxer
-Ground game is non existent
-Wrestling is terrible
Paulo Filho
16-1-0
Brazil
+Extremely decorated Jiu Jitsu black belt
+Black belt in judo
+Persistent in trying to bring fight to the ground
-May have mental lingering issues
-Weak takedown shots
-Average striking
Notable Wins:
Kazuo Misaki (2006)
Analysis:
Stays standing, Manhoef. Ground, Filho. Simple, but is Filho's wrestling good enough to take this to the mat? That I'm not sure about, if Filho focuses this should really be his, if he starts seeing ghosts again Manhoef will make him one.
Manhoef was never really committed to MMA, and when he got subbed by Mousasi he complained about Mousasi not having balls enough to stand with him. Don't expect him to ever have a good sprawl.
Filho is committed, and if he's worked out his mental issues he could be a nightmare matchup for Manhoef...like anyone with a wrestling background and submission skill are.
My Take:
Filho by sub, Round 1, minute 1. I don't believe Black House would let him fight again unless he was fit. Filho is at 1.74, Manhoef at 2.05, but I still prefer the Brazilian.
Katsunori Kikuno vs. Andre 'Dida' Amade
(70kg/154lbs)
Katsunori Kikuno
11-1-0
Japan
+Extremely prestigious career in Kyokushin Karate
+Judo background
+Transitions between striking/clinching fluid
+Aggressive ground and pound
+Very confident striker
-Striking defense not tight-Takedowns not hard to stuff
-Not a submission artist
Andre Amade
6-3-1
Brazil
+Wicked power punches
+Fast puncher that throws punches in bunches that have a good chance of overwhelming the opponent in classic Chute Boxe style
+Decent takedown defense
+Good defensive guard
-Wild style may cause him to run out of energy
-Bad grappler
-Open to counterstriking
-Left and right hooks are his primary combinations
Analysis:
Textbook striking vs. aggressive assault. This is difficult to call. Kikuno has an extensive Kyokushin pedigree; his titles include: 1st place in an All-Kyushu Tournament and 1st place in an All-Kansai Tournament, both of which were openweight tournaments.
Dida looks to have a considerable height and reach advantage, and is more tested against top competition, but hasn't fought in more than a year. Kikuno, however, is on an eight-fight winning streak, albeit against sub-par competition.
My Take:
Leaning towards Dida by TKO, Round 1. Kikuno is not a counterstriker like Machida, who is impossible to hit; he comes forward, and I think this will play to Amade's game.
Amade enters at 2.45, and Kikuno enters at 1.57, so there is great value on Amade.
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