I wasn't the only one predicting long and arduous series across the board, but I was way off in the conference semifinals.
Everyone wanted to see a classic Detroit-Colorado rivalry. Everyone expected the New York-Pittsburgh series to go seven games. Few thought Montreal-Philadelphia would end as it did, and most knew Dallas-San Jose would be tough.
I should have known to pick Detroit and Pittsburgh, but didn't.
My fatal "sports writer" flaw—not being able to choose the Red Wings for personal not professional reasons—haunted my predictions once again.
All the numbers pointed to Detroit, but I was a spring hockey hopeful like all the rest and, more honestly, I just wanted them to lose. In retrospect, the Avalanche never had a chance, the Rangers looked slow, Montreal and San Jose lost a couple coin flips but in the end simply got out-worked.
I'm not having a great season. In round two I went one and three. Overall my record is five wins and seven losses.
My Pick; Result
• Montreal in six; Philadelphia in five
• New York in seven; Pittsburgh in five
• Colorado in seven; Detroit in four
• Dallas in six; Dallas in six
The good news, of course, is that we're only half way done. Two more series and then the grand finale.
Like years past, we got this far with some obvious results and some unforeseen challengers. It's a tough call as we whittle it down from four to two, so I think it's time to look closely at the numbers to try and sort it out from here.
Eastern Conference
The Pittsburgh Penguins looked really, really good against the Rangers. They're quick, young, resilient, have great power play, and a goalie that's tops in save percentage (Fleury, .938).
The thing is that Philadelphia's sheet reads exactly the same way. Biron is second in the East (.914 SV percentage) and the Flyer's lead the Conference in power play percentage at 24 percent.
On the other side, the Penguins convert 23.4 percent of their man advantage opportunities, a trivial difference.
The top of the scoring chart, behind a no-longer-playing Jagr, reads like the All-Pennsylvania Team (in order of appearance): Briere (PHI), Malkin (PIT), Crosby (PIT), Prospal (PHI), Umberger (PHI).
It's no wonder these two are meeting here and now. All these stats on paper draw up a high-scoring, goal fest with some amazing moments in net. Yet, this is the Conference Finals and both teams will need to tighten up on defense in front of their hot goalies.
Likewise, the power play and being smart about taking penalties will play a big role in this one. In the nit-pick numbers, the Flyers have a higher "goals for" and a lower "goal diff," but the two are (again) separated by mere decimal points.
Next we take a look at the intangibles.
Philadelphia has to be flying high after knocking off the number one seed with authority and by their enormous reversal from last season. The entire team is gaining momentum and strength, and is surprisingly healthy at this stage of the season.
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