10 Predictions for the Miami Dolphins' 2014 Season
The Miami Dolphins came so close to making the playoffs in 2013, and they may have to cross that plateau if they want to maintain the status quo through 2014 and beyond.
Joe Philbin is 15-17 as head coach of the Dolphins, but his team is going through some dramatic changes this season. It is fielding an offensive line of five new starters and running a new offense altogether under new coordinator Bill Lazor. The former Philadelphia Eagles quarterback coach could make his impact felt with an exotic, uptempo offense.
Aside from those changes, the Dolphins are largely the same as when we left them.
Their defense is still an underrated unit, despite ranking in the top 10 in scoring in each of the past three seasons. Their offense is still led by quarterback Ryan Tannehill and is still loaded with skill-position talent with Knowshon Moreno and Lamar Miller at running back, Charles Clay at tight end, and Mike Wallace, Brian Hartline, Brandon Gibson and Jarvis Landry at receiver.
Will it be enough to help the Dolphins get over .500 for the first time since 2008? Here are my predictions for the Dolphins' 2014 season.
Ryan Tannehill Will Throw at Least 30 Touchdown Passes
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From Year 1 to Year 2, Ryan Tannehill doubled his total touchdown passes from 12 to 24. The Dolphins added some notable pass-catching talent to their arsenal last offseason in the form of Mike Wallace and Brandon Gibson, but they've added even more this offseason with their selection of Jarvis Landry in the second round.
Last season, Tannehill threw 18 of his 24 touchdown passes from inside the red zone, according to Pro Football Reference. As a team, however, the Dolphins' 44 trips to the red zone last year were the eighth-fewest for any team.
If the Dolphins can get into the red zone more often—and a balanced approach on offense should help that—Tannehill will have plenty of opportunities to fit the ball into tight windows in the red zone.
Cameron Wake Will Log 12 or More Sacks
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Since entering the NFL, Cameron Wake has alternated seasons with 10 or more sacks—he missed the mark his first year, hit it his second, missed it his third and so forth. Wake enters his sixth year in the league, and the trend seems to point to him reaching double digits.
Beyond the quirky coincidence, the Dolphins defensive line is one of the best in football, with four solid pass-rushers who can all create pressure. Wake now has a solid bookend on the other side of the line in third-year defensive end Olivier Vernon (11.5 sacks in 2013). The two defensive ends should play off each other as well as the pressure from defensive tackles Jared Odrick and Randy Starks.
Despite only logging 8.5 sacks last year, Wake ranked second among all 4-3 defensive ends in pass-rushing productivity, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required). The difference is very small between a quarterback hurry, hit and sack. Wake should be able to convert a couple more pressures into takedowns this year.
Ryan Tannehill Will Be Sacked Fewer Than 40 Times
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It's about time I get a little bolder with the predictions.
The narrative about the Dolphins offensive line is that it has completely retooled with five new starters and is without center Mike Pouncey due to a hip injury for the time being.
For two years, the Dolphins have been running a zone-blocking scheme on the offensive line with a group of linemen who were brought in to execute a man-blocking scheme under the previous regimes "bigger, stronger" philosophy up front.
This group of Branden Albert, Shelley Smith, Billy Turner, Ja'Wuan James and Mike Pouncey is built to pass-block and block on the move.
Tannehill did a great job of getting the ball out quickly in 2013 with one of the 10-lowest averages for time in the pocket, according to Pro Football Focus. The Dolphins offensive line needs to return the favor, though, instead of allowing him to be sacked within 3.8 seconds on average (seventh-quickest in the NFL).
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Charles Clay Will Catch at Least 10 Touchdown Passes
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Few players in the NFL went from zero to hero quite as dramatically as tight end Charles Clay did in 2013. Clay had higher stats across the board than he had in his first two seasons combined (34 receptions, 445 yards, five touchdowns from 2011-2012; 69 receptions, 759 yards, six touchdowns in 2013).
The Dolphins love Clay as a matchup piece to move all over the field, lined up as an X receiver, an in-line Y tight end, a fullback, in the slot and elsewhere. They will look for ways to get him the ball.
Additionally, he is one of Tannehill's most trusted targets overall. Clay was targeted on 102 passes, according to Pro Football Reference, and caught 67.6 percent of those passes.
Bill Lazor could look to get Clay involved even more often this year. Eagles tight ends Brent Celek and Zach Ertz combined for 68 receptions and 10 touchdowns last year, but since Clay is head and shoulders above the other tight ends on the Dolphins roster, he won't have to worry about splitting the receptions or red-zone looks with anyone.
Mike Wallace Will Lead the Team in Receptions
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The Dolphins receptions leader has not changed over the past two years; Brian Hartline has been the go-to target since Ryan Tannehill took over at quarterback.
Why will that change this year? One thing we saw a lot from the Dolphins this preseason was their desire to get the ball into the hands of their playmakers in open space. The Dolphins clearly weren't showing their whole hand this preseason, but they would be wise to use this strategy to get Wallace more involved on offense.
Lazor's offense should mean big things for Wallace. Former offensive coordinator Mike Sherman didn't do enough to get Wallace some separation and allow him to use his elite speed. In Lazor's offense, Wallace will be moving around a bit and will get separation through pre-snap motion and other means.
The Dolphins need to draw up some high-percentage plays for Wallace to get the ball in his hands and see if he can make a big play after the catch.
The Dolphins Defense Will Rank in the Top 10 in Scoring
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The Dolphins defense is consistently among the league's most underrated units, but Miami has also been among the league's best units for several years in the only stat that really matters: scoring.
The Dolphins have ranked in the top 10 in scoring in each of the past three seasons. The key to their success is the red zone. Over the past three years, Dolphins opponents have scored a touchdown on only 45 percent of their red-zone possessions; that's good for the third-lowest percentage in the league, according to Pro Football Reference.
The majority of the Dolphins defense is returning to the fold in 2014, with a couple of upgrades thrown into the mix as well. Their defensive line is still one of the best in football, and their secondary has some depth. The only question mark is at linebacker, where Philip Wheeler and Dannell Ellerbe need to improve against the run after struggling last season.
Knowshon Moreno Will Have More Than 1,200 Total Yards of Offense
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Knowshon Moreno was a key contributor to the Denver Broncos offense last year, rushing for 1,038 yards and 10 touchdowns and adding another 548 receiving yards and three receiving touchdowns. He may not hit the same numbers now that he is no longer part of the Broncos' high-powered juggernaut, but he could still have a sizable role in the Dolphins offense this season.
The Dolphins were notably absent a solid option in the backfield on passing downs; Daniel Thomas and Lamar Miller both struggled in pass protection, and neither provided game-breaking plays when he got the ball in his hands in the open field. Moreno excels in both areas and could be a big part of their third-down offensive packages.
Miller could be on the clock in Miami and will most likely be an understudy to Moreno unless the veteran back misses time with an injury.
Contract Extension for Charles Clay
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Clay's breakout season of 2013 put him on the map, and if he has the kind of season I think he's capable of having, the Dolphins would be wise to get him to the negotiating table sooner than later to prevent him from hitting the open market.
Presently, Clay's contract is set to expire at the end of the 2014 season. He is making a paltry $1,459,000 for his services in 2014, according to Over the Cap.
With another solid year of production, Clay could expect a contract that pays him in the neighborhood of $7 or $8 million per year. The Dolphins do not have a bevy of cap space at the moment and would be roughly $2 million over next year's estimated salary cap. There may be some tricky waters to navigate in terms of how to make it work, but the Dolphins should start having these conversations sooner rather than later.
The Dolphins Will Have 1 of the 5-Fastest Offenses in the NFL
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Mike Wallace insists we haven't seen everything Bill Lazor's offense has to offer, in fact only "12 percent" per the Associated Press. One of those elements could be its uptempo style of play.
In 2013, the Dolphins offense ranked near the top 10 in almost all of Football Outsiders' "pace stats" that measure how much downtime elapsed between each play. By contrast, the Philadelphia Eagles were No. 1 in five categories and No. 4 in the other two. Lazor's experience with the Eagles could rub off on the Dolphins in that area.
That being said, the Dolphins will need to convert more third downs if they are going to successfully run the uptempo offense after converting only 35 percent of third downs in 2013 (ninth-lowest in the NFL, according to TeamRankings.com).
Final Record: 9-7
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It's not much, but it's continued improvement. For Joe Philbin to keep his job, the Dolphins will need to show at least some steps forward after last season.
If this prediction holds, the Dolphins will have won one more game in each year under Philbin than they did the year prior.
In a weak AFC, a 9-7 record could be good enough to get the team into the postseason, but it will be close. The San Diego Chargers made the playoffs with a 9-7 record last season, so it can be done.
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