An Early Look at the San Francisco Giants' Top 10 Offseason Targets
The San Francisco Giants are in the midst of a playoff push. If successful, their fans could be in for another magical postseason run.
Giants manager Bruce Bochy is a master of motivating his players and getting the most out of them when it counts. He led the Giants to two World Series titles, even though they were usually the underdog throughout the playoffs.
Although the focus should be on the rest of this season and rightfully so, it is never too early to look at what happens after the season is concluded.
General manager Brian Sabean will have an extremely busy offseason. The Giants have five key players that will hit the free-agent market at the end of the season. These players are Pablo Sandoval, Michael Morse, Jake Peavy, Ryan Vogelsong and Sergio Romo.
Sabean and the Giants ownership group will have some very tough decisions to make, and money could be a major issue.
According to statistics posted by baseballprospectus.com, the Giants began the 2014 season with a payroll in excess of $149 million, the seventh highest in baseball. With a few additions, this amount is now over $150 million.
If the Giants ownership group wants to give the team and its fans the best chance to win, it will need to increase that by as much as 10-15 percent in order to properly bolster the roster for the upcoming season.
Looking ahead to the 2015, season, the Giants already have roughly $127 million committed to 12 players, with several holes needing to be filled.
It will be up to the Giants ownership group if it is willing to give Sabean enough financial flexibility to address the Giants' needs.
This increase can be temporary, as there are several large contracts coming off the books after the 2015 season. These include Tim Lincecum's $18 million, Tim Hudson's $12 million, Marco Scutaro's $6.67 million and Jeremy Affeldt's $6 million.
Let's take a look at which players will be the Giants' 10 biggest targets this winter.
All stats courtesy of baseball-reference.com.
All contract data courtesy of baseballprospectus.com.
10. Sergio Romo
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Sergio Romo has had a very difficult season and lost his closer job to Santiago Casilla in June. Romo will be 32 years of age when the 2015 season rolls around and it is very uncertain whether he will return to the Orange and Black.
In 52 innings of work, Romo has allowed 40 hits and 12 walks, while striking out 53. His WHIP is a very respectable 1.00. On the surface, these numbers look solid; however, Romo has allowed too many extra-base hits and that has hurt him. His ERA is 3.98, the highest of his seven-year career.
Romo is currently making $6.3 million and if he wants to be a closer or get paid like a closer, it likely won't be in San Francisco.
It appears as though the only way Romo will remain a Giant is if he is willing to sign a contract at his current level, or perhaps even below.
Romo is a fan favorite and has always been an exuberant presence on the team, appearing to genuinely enjoy being a Giant. It is possible he will take less to stay in San Francisco and if he's willing to do that, it will be worth keeping him for around the $5-6 million range.
9. Pat Neshek
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If the San Francisco Giants are unable to retain Sergio Romo, they will need a veteran reliever from the right side. An excellent option is Pat Neshek, who is having an outstanding year with the Cardinals.
In 59 innings, Neshek has allowed only 32 hits and seven walks, while striking out 61. His ERA is 1.37, and his WHIP is an amazing 0.661.
Neshek is making only $1 million this year. At the age of 34, he will likely want a contract longer than just one year. If the Giants determine that Romo is not coming back, an offer of two years and $8 million should be enough to get Neshek.
The Giants have some good power arms coming up through the ranks, such as Erik Cordier, Hunter Strickland and Brett Bochy. One or two of them may make the 2015 roster, so a veteran presence like Neshek will be invaluable to those pitchers.
8. Grady Sizemore
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Grady Sizemore missed the previous two seasons due to injury but is back and having a career resurgence.
Sizemore began the year with the Red Sox but played poorly and was released. He signed with the Phillies in June and is playing very well.
In 125 at-bats with the Phillies, Sizemore is hitting .304, with an OBP of .360 and OPS of .840. Based on his recent history, Sizemore is still a bit of an injury risk.
However, this is a very thin free-agent market, and the Giants need at least one quality outfielder, so Sizemore should be a consideration. Sizemore can also play center field, which becomes invaluable when Angel Pagan inevitably gets hurt.
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7. Aaron Harang
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Aaron Harang is having a very solid season, after a dismal 2013. However, there is a risk in signing Harang, who will be 37 years of age in May.
Harang split time between the Mariners and Mets in 2013 and posted an ERA of 5.40. He has thrown the ball a lot better this year with the Braves. In 173 innings, the right-hander has allowed 182 hits and 64 walks, while striking out 129. His ERA is 3.64, and he has a WHIP of 1.422.
The market for starting pitching at a reasonable price is very thin, with pitchers like Kevin Correia, Kyle Kendrick, Colby Lewis and Chris Young being the type of pitchers available. Given these options, Harang must be considered.
The top starters available, including Jon Lester and Justin Masterson, are all likely priced above what the Giants will be willing to pay.
Harang is making only $1 million this year and would be worth considering as a fifth starter if Sabean can entice him with a one-year deal in the $2.5 million range.
6. Jason Hammel
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Jason Hammel was having a fine year with the Chicago Cubs, then he was traded, along with Jeff Samardzija, to the Oakland A's.
Hammel has struggled in Oakland. In 47 innings, he has allowed 49 hits and 19 walks, while striking out 32. Hammel's ERA with the A's is 4.98, in comparison with a 2.98 ERA with the Cubs. Hammel's WHIP has also jumped from 1.021 to 1.447.
Hammel is making $6 million this year and might welcome a return to the National League. The Giants could offer Hammel something in the range of two years and $16-18 million.
With the uncertainty over Tim Lincecum, combined with the impending free agency of both Ryan Vogelsong and Jake Peavy, the Giants will need to add a solid starting pitcher.
The Giants have some good, young starters in the minors, including Kyle Crick, Chris Stratton, Clayton Blackburn and Ty Blach, but they are all likely another year or two away. A pitcher like Hammel will help the Giants bridge the gap until some of these young arms are ready.
The market for starting pitching at a reasonable price is very thin, with pitchers like Aaron Harang, Kevin Correia, Kyle Kendrick, Colby Lewis and Chris Young being the type of pitchers available. Given these options, Hammel is just fine.
The top starters available, including Jon Lester and Justin Masterson, are all likely priced above what the Giants will be willing to pay.
5. Ryan Vogelsong
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Ryan Vogelsong will be 38 years of age in the middle of next season. However, he proved he still has something left in the tank, as he has pitched fairly well this year.
As a fifth starter, Vogelsong is a good fit for the Giants. This year, Vogelsong has thrown 162 innings, allowed 160 hits and 46 walks, while striking out 133. Vogelsong's ERA is a touch high at 4.06, but his WHIP is a respectable 1.272.
Vogelsong has often been the victim of poor run support and has pitched better than his record indicates. One key stat that bodes well for Vogelsong is his strikeout-to-walk ratio of 2.89. This is the best of his career, save for his rookie season back in 2000, when he threw only six innings.
Vogelsong makes $5 million and would likely return for something around that level. A one-year deal makes sense for both the Giants and Vogelsong.
4. Michael Morse
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The San Francisco Giants need to stabilize their outfield as Angel Pagan is oft injured, and they have no left fielder under contract for 2015.
Michael Morse got off to an excellent start but tailed off badly in June and July. The issue may have been tied to the injuries to Pagan and Brandon Belt. Morse was playing every day and seemed to wear down.
This year, Morse has already played 130 games, which is by far the second most in his 10-year career. If the Giants could play Morse in roughly four out of every six games, he would stay fresher and his production should be more consistent.
Morse has already given the Giants more than they probably expected, with 16 home runs and 61 RBI in 436 at-bats. He is hitting .280, with an OBP of .338 and OPS of .815.
Morse played a good first base but was a liability in left field. His presence in left, along with Pagan's penchant for injury, means San Francisco needs to have two solid reserve outfielders.
Other than Michael Cuddyer, there is a dearth of power-hitting outfielders available on the free-agent market. With Cuddyer being an even bigger injury risk than Morse, Giants GM Brian Sabean would be wise to try to retain Morse.
Morse is making $6 million this year and will likely get a raise, even though he will be 33 years of age prior to the start of the 2015 season. If Giants GM Brian Sabean can ink Morse to a two-year deal in the $15-$16 million range, that would be a worthwhile gamble.
Unfortunately, the Giants have no internal power-hitting outfielders anywhere close to making the move to the big leagues. They will, therefore, need to spend money in the free-agent market or make a trade, which would likely entail giving up some of their young pitching prospects.
3. Jake Peavy
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Some players have a countenance of stoic professionalism and others have a more fiery personality. Then there is Jake Peavy. He makes the term fiery seem bland and meek.
Peavy has quickly become a fan favorite with his intensity and his performance on the field. Since coming to San Francisco, Peavy has started seven games and thrown 47.1 innings. He has allowed 40 hits and 12 walks, while striking out 36.
The Giants have only two sure starting pitchers set for the 2015 season, Madison Bumgarner and Tim Hudson. Matt Cain had elbow surgery and although he is expected back by spring training, you never know for sure.
Daniel Brown of mercurynews.com reports that the surgeon, Dr. Ken Akizuki, removed bone chips and addressed some bone spurs.
Even if Cain returns on time and is able to pitch effectively, there are still two holes in the Giants starting rotation. In addition to Peavy and Vogelsong, other internal options include Tim Lincecum and Yusmeiro Petit.
If Sabean can retain Peavy, that would address one of the two open spots. Peavy made $14.5 million this year but would likely need to take a lower amount to stay in San Francisco.
Sabean could offer Peavy a one-year deal for more money, or a two-year contract at a lower per-year amount.
If Sabean can ink Peavy to a one-year, $12.5 million deal, that would be a good move for the Giants. A two-year, $20 million contract would also be acceptable.
2. Emilio Bonifacio
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The Giants typically carry 12 pitchers, which leaves room for only five reserves. Since one of the reserves is a backup catcher, there is room for only four reserves on the Giants roster.
Emilio Bonifacio would be an ideal fit for the Giants. He can play all three outfield positions and also has experience at every infield spot, except first base.
Giants manager Bruce Bochy, who is a master of using his entire roster, would be able to utilize Bonifacio very effectively.
Bonifacio has outstanding speed and can be a very disruptive force on the bases. He started the season with the Cubs, then was traded to Atlanta at the trade deadline. His combined production this year has been solid.
In 345 at-bats, Bonifacio is hitting .275, with an OBP of .315 and OPS of .674. He is not a power hitter, with only two home runs and 20 RBI, but he has scored 42 runs and has 20 steals. His 20 stolen bases would easily lead the Giants.
Bonifacio would give the Giants a good option in center field when Angel Pagan invariably gets hurt. He can also play second base, in the event Joe Panik has a sophomore slump.
In addition, Bonifacio can hit at the top of the order or at the bottom and give the team a lot of speed, something it doesn't have at present.
Bonifacio is making $2.5 million this year and could likely be signed for around $4-5 million.
1. Pablo Sandoval
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The San Francisco Giants have a major problem. They need Pablo Sandoval, they don't want to pay him as much as he wants and other teams might outbid them.
Earlier this year, Jon Heyman of cbssports.com reported that Sandoval and his agent Gustavo Vazquez were seeking a five-year, $100 million deal. This is more than Hunter Pence's five-year, $90 million contract, which was signed following the 2013 season.
Looking at the current list of players on the free-agent market, there are no quality third basemen, and the overall market for offensive players is weak. This gives Sandoval all the leverage, even though he is having a decent, though not spectacular season.
In 511 at-bats, Sandoval is hitting .288 with 15 home runs and 64 RBI. His OBP is .331, and his OPS is .765. Sandoval typically bats in the cleanup spot, so his 64 RBI are actually a bit disappointing.
Sandoval is in much better shape than in recent years and that has translated to much better defense. The real question is whether the Giants can trust Sandoval to stay in shape after he signs that big contract.
Looking at the overall market, it appears likely that a team will give Sandoval something near to what Pence signed for. Whether the Giants will go that high, or for that many years, is very questionable.
One team that may be in the market for Sandoval is the Los Angeles Dodgers. They have Juan Uribe starting at third base now, but he is not a long-term option. If the Dodgers were to acquire Sandoval, it would improve their team and hurt the Giants. This makes too much sense for them not to do it.
Grant Brisbee of mccoveychronicles.com puts the Dodgers' chances of signing Sandoval if he hits the open market at 50 percent or above. The Giants and GM Brian Sabean simply cannot risk losing Sandoval to Los Angeles.
If Sabean can get Sandoval to agree to a four-year, $80 million deal, they need to do it. Unfortunately, even that may not be enough.
Losing Sandoval would leave a gaping hole at third base and in the Giants lineup. The Giants have nobody in the minors ready to step in, and there are no strong options available on the free-agent market.
If Sabean loses Sandoval and needs to make a trade for a third baseman, the likelihood is that he will not be able to obtain one who is better than Sandoval, and the cost in terms of players will be very high.
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