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FedEx Cup 2014 Odds: Updated Outlook Ahead of BMW Championship

Ben AlberstadtFeatured ColumnistSeptember 3, 2014

FedEx Cup 2014 Odds: Updated Outlook Ahead of BMW Championship

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    Doug Pensinger/Getty Images

    You need FedEx Cup 2014 odds? Want a clear picture of who's poised to raise a trophy at the BMW Championship and why the guy pictured above isn't?

    We've got you covered.

    The PGA Tour's best are teeing it up 5,426 feet above sea level at the William Flynn-designed Cherry Hills Country Club. This year marks the first time the event has been held at the Colorado course. Thus, many pros are teeing it up at Cherry Hills for the first time. 

    One golfer who isn't making his debut at the course this week is Phil Mickelson. Lefty captured the 1990 U.S. Amateur at Cherry Hills. Will that work to his advantage this week? 

    Click through for the answer to that question and to see who could contend in Colorado. 

     

Phil Mickelson

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    Mel Evans/Associated Press

    FedEx Cup standing: 56

    Odds to win BMW Championship: 30-1

    Playoff performance: The Barclays: Made cut, did not finish; Deutsche Bank Championship: T45

    The lowdown

    According the PGA Tour's projections, Phil Mickelson needs to finish no worse than fourth at the BMW Championship to punch his ticket to East Lake. 

    Lefty returns to a course where he has some great memories: he won the 1990 U.S. Amateur at Cherry Hills. So that should bode well for him. 

    "I haven’t driven the ball this well in a long time and my putter felt great. Even my iron shots, which have been off … but I’m hitting better shots than I did before," Phil Mickelson said following his final-round 67 at the Deutsche Bank Championship (per Rex Hoggard of Golf Channel). 

    Even considering the above, finishing fourth at Cherry Hills is a tall order (especially given Mickelson's recent form). 

Sergio Garcia

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    Mel Evans/Associated Press

    FedEx Cup standing: 23

    Odds to win BMW Championship: 22-1

    Playoff performance: The Barclays: T57; Deutsche Bank Championship: Did not play

    The lowdown

    After a relatively poor showing at The Barclays, which included a final-round 74, Sergio Garcia took the week of the Deutsche Bank Championship off. 

    As he's hitting 64.2 percent of fairways this year, Sergio should fare well at Cherry Hills, a course noted for its gnarly rough. He's also second on tour in strokes gained: total, so his all-round game is in fine form. 

    As he could afford to do so, taking the week off was the right move. Expect the refreshed Spaniard to play well in Colorado. 

Rickie Fowler

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    Stew Milne/Associated Press

    FedEx Cup standing: 10

    Odds to win BMW Championship: 20-1

    Playoff performance: The Barclays: T9; Deutsche Bank Championship: T23

    The lowdown

    Prior to finishing tied for 23rd at the Deutsche Bank Championship, Rickie Fowler hadn't finished worse than tied for 13th since the beginning of July. Including in that stretch, of course, was a tie for second at the U.S. Open and a tie for third at the PGA Championship. 

    Fowler finished just two strokes out of the top 10 at the Deutsche Bank, so it's not like he spit the bit. He hit 72.2 percent of greens in regulation for the week and 64.3 percent of fairways. Thus, he seems poised to contend at Cherry Hills where accuracy is at a premium. 

     

Henrik Stenson

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    Michael Dwyer/Associated Press

    FedEx Cup standing: 55

    Odds to win BMW Championship: 20-1

    Playoff performance: The Barclays: T38; Deutsche Bank Championship: T26

    The lowdown

    Last year's FedEx Cup champion, Henrik Stenson, entered the past two playoff events among the favorites to raise a trophy. Instead, he didn't crack the top 25 in either event. Really, he hasn't been able to translate the positive momentum from his tie for third at the PGA Championship into success the past two weeks. 

    At the PGA Championship, Stenson was brilliant with the putter, picking up 2.25 strokes on the field. At The Barclays and the Deutsche Bank Championship, the Swede lost strokes thanks to his work on the greens.

    Stenson seemingly always plays well from tee to green. Certainly, the last two events were no exception as he hit upwards of 70 percent of fairways and 70 percent of greens in regulation. He needs to finish fourth or better at the BMW Championship to crack the top 30.

    If he expects to do the above, he'll need to duplicate his putting performance from the PGA Championship (which isn't likely on Cherry Hills vastly faster greens). 

     

Justin Rose

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    John Locher/Associated Press

    FedEx Cup standing: 27

    Odds to win BMW Championship: 18-1

    Playoff performance: The Barclays: T30; Deutsche Bank Championship: Did not play

    The lowdown

    Justin Rose sat out the Deutsche Bank Championship as he was 20th in the FedEx Cup standings at the time. As a result, however, he's put himself in a position where he needs to finish 46th or better to earn a pass to the Tour Championship. 

    It's tough to imagine this will be a problem for the veteran. However, he only hit 53.6 percent of fairways at The Barclays, which is a far cry from the 60 percent he'd been averaging this year. If Rose hasn't tightened things up in his week off, he could struggle at Cherry Hills. 

Jason Day

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    Michael Dwyer/Associated Press

    FedEx Cup standing: 7

    Odds to win BMW Championship: 16-1

    Playoff performance: The Barclays: T2; Deutsche Bank Championship: T7

    The lowdown

    Jason Day has been knocking at the door lately. As Rob Bolton of PGATour.com pointed out, Day "Led [the] field in putting inside 10 feet at TPC Boston (67-for-71). [And he] Ranks eighth in scrambling." Both scrambling and putting inside 10 feet will be critical at Cherry Hills. 

    The Australian just didn't do quite enough to win at The Barclays. However, his putting numbers for the week were brilliant on Ridgewood's quick greens, which were similar in speed to what players will face in Colorado. 

    Day has been on form lately, having resolved or found a workaround for the thumb issues that have plagued him this season. He hit 65 percent of greens in regulation at TPC Boston and 66 percent of fairways for the week. With a comparable performance and solid work around Cherry Hills' tricky greens, he'll be a winner this week. 

Adam Scott

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    Jeff Roberson/Associated Press

    FedEx Cup standing: 13

    Odds to win BMW Championship: 12-1

    Playoff performance: The Barclays: T15; Deutsche Bank Championship: T16

    The lowdown

    Lately, it seems like you can just pencil Adam Scott in for a top-10 finish. The Australian hasn't finished outside the top 20 in a tournament since The Players Championship.

    And although he didn't contend at either of the first two playoff events, he was steady for three rounds in each event. In both tournaments, he was undone by one poor rounda third-round 75 at The Barclays and a first-round 73 at the Deutsche Bank Championship. 

    If he plays his usual game and avoids the bad round, this tournament could be his. Certainly, Scott will enter the tournament motivated to move up from 13th in the FedEx Cup standings to a position where he has a better shot at lifting the cup. And as one of the fittest players on tour, don't expect Scott to be fatigued by either the altitude or the number of tournaments he's played recently. 

Rory McIlroy

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    Michael Dwyer/Associated Press

    FedEx Cup standing: 2

    Odds to win BMW Championship: 4-1

    Playoff performance: The Barclays: T22; Deutsche Bank Championship: T5

    The lowdown

    Rory McIlroy began the final round of the Deutsche Bank Championship two strokes off the lead. However, his one-under tally over the final 18 holes wasn't good enough to get the job done. Of the players who finished inside the top 10 at TPC Boston, McIlroy had the second worst final round score.

    Should we be worried that the young Ulsterman is running out of gas? Following his 71, McIlroy mentioned "trying too hard" and "mental fatigue" as contributing factors to the disappointing effort (per Bailey Mosier of Golf Channel). 

    In the high altitude of Colorado, having shown signs of burnout in his last two tournaments, there's reason to be skeptical about Rory McIlroy's chances this week. However, at 4-1 odds, it's clear sportsbooks don't share those concerns. 

     

    Stats via PGATour.com. Odds based on average of figures from major sportsbooks obtained from Oddschecker.

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