A Shot in the Dark: Who's Hall of Fame-Bound from the Steroids Era?

(Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

In honor of the Home Run Derby, let's examine the one thing that makes the derby better, other than Josh Hamilton...steroids! 

In the coming years, more and more first time Hall-of-Fame candidates will show up from the Steroids Era. The Hall-of-Fame voters must decide what to do with this period, who to punish, and what will define a potential inductee whose career spanned from the late 1980's to the early 2000's. 

Here, I will attempt to examine the careers of many potential Hall-of-Famers from the Steroids Era and whether or not they deserve to get in.

The "Ex–Juicers"

2007 gave voters their first Steroids Era test. Mark McGwire, poster child of inflated power numbers (whether or not it was due to the legal substance called androstenedione, apparently doesn't matter), was given his first opportunity at a Hall-of-Fame induction.

McGwire's relationship to whistleblower/drama queen Jose Canseco places him squarely in the sights of steroids allegations. Additional "evidence" came in the form of his weak showing during Congress' steroids witch hunt (see: waste of time).

What was initially considered a first ballot lock for McGwire quickly deteriorated into a question of whether McGwire would get in at all thanks to the steroids allegations. As expected, McGwire fell short of the 75 percent vote required for induction on his first attempt and has retained a consistent 20 percent vote over the last three years.

Clearly the voters aren't ready to forgive juicing yet. However, McGwire remains comfortably on the ballot. A five percent vote is required to carry over one's inclusion on a Hall-of-Fame ballot. McGwire is in no danger of falling below that mark right now and will likely be on the ballot for a while. 

While the voters don't want to appear lax on the steroids issue, McGwire's numbers are great enough that he retains consideration. However, the only reason McGwire is considered a Hall-of-Famer is because of his power numbers.

McGwire holds a career .263 batting average and only managed 1,600 hits.  Even his RBI numbers aren't overly impressive at 1,414 especially considering he hit 583 home runs.

Take away the long–ball and McGwire's not a very good baseball player. As it stands, he should remain on the ballot as long as possible, until definitive proof comes out that he used steroids.

McGwire's HR–chase contemporary, Sammy Sosa has an additional 800 hits, 250 RBI, 26 HR, and a ridiculous four year period where he hit 60 homers in a season three times. Already, his game is more impressive than McGwire. 

One must consider that Sosa shares more than just power and a home run record chase with McGwire. He is also a steroids use candidate. According to the New York Times, Sosa is supposedly on the same list of players as Alex Rodriguez. He's also got that embarrassing corked bat episode weighing against him as well.

Just like McGwire, Sosa's numbers are primarily power numbers. Sosa carries a low batting average (.273), no gold gloves, and no non–powerhitting milestones. 

Without an actual release of the 2003 test, the allegations remain hearsay, but the fact that he's a power hitter first with no other extraordinary facet to his game means the voters are justified in waiting around as long as possible to determine whether or not Sosa deserves induction.

The final two retired cases are a bit more difficult (one impossibly so), Rafael Palmeiro and Barry Bonds. 

Palmeiro is a member of the 500 HR club and the 3,000 hit club. He's got more RBI than either McGwire or Sosa and a career .288 average. He was also a Gold Glover three times in his career. 

Of the three players examined so far, surprisingly Rafael Palmeiro is the best Hall-of-Fame candidate as his game was more diverse than just power hitting. However, he has an actual, released positive test for a banned substance against him, a larger strike to overcome than Canseco's allegations or forgetting how to speak English in front of U.S. legislators.

In Palmeiro's case, it boils down to how much negative weight should be placed on steroids.  Palmeiro wasn't a pop-up guy like Sosa or McGwire, he was a good hitter before balls started flying out of the park. It would be a shame to keep a member of the 3,000 club and the 500 HR club out of the Hall-of-Fame, and voters should remember steroids make you better, not great.

The final retired hitter may be the most difficult case ever, Barry Bonds. 

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