Of Modern Media and the Last Cutler Rebuttal

(Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)

I am no KC Joyner.

I considered my first 1,000-hit article a huge milestone.

I spend my free time relishing all things Bears, scouring the edges of the Internet for a fix.

What's the word on the logjam at HB? 
Who's the winning the FS battle? 
How's the slot position looking?

I am a fan.

I don't get paid to follow the Bears.  My articles make me zero dollars and more often than not, I promise more than I can deliver in terms of writing commitments.

I am a journalism major.

Whenever I tell people that, they look at me like I've just volunteered to jump into a woodchipper.

Newspapers are dying, and that's being generous, their inquisitive looks say.

There is no place in this world for prehistoric Canadian prints telling of today's tragedies and yesterday's scores.

In this new age of endless media outlets where a column is more likely to be read on a Blackberry than in print, the beacon of hope for all who wish to suckle the media teet has to be the Internet.

If the Internet is the future, then consider me on the frontlines, pounding away on my keyboard, sending my words to a live online script ready to be published with the click of a mouse.

Check that.

Since the Internet is the future, then consider me frightened.

It's scary to see my future withering away before it begins.

You know, the Internet?  The same medium that brings you both Brad Biggs and Jay Mariotti.

If this is the era of Deadspin, ProFootballWeekly, and Mediaite.com, then count me out.

But alas, I am a nobody.  Who cares what I say.  I'll probably be another washup anyway, withering away covering high school sports in some small town in Delaware.

However, as both consumer and producer, I have to speak out with what resources I have.

See, what bothers me the most is not the new era of journalist who covets celebrity more than credibility.

It should bother me that Jay Mariotti left the Sun-Times because he wanted more exposure, but it doesn't.

It should bother me that ESPN will show you what they call an expert but show none of their work, or even reference it. 

No, it's not that.  Or at least, not directly that.

What bothers me are media heads who make a name for themselves by putting out shock headlines, or, as in the case of "The Football Scientist" KC Joyner, perpetuating slippery slope ideas with the intention of generating buzz.

Now he'll be the first to tell you, he's an expert.  He watches as much "film" as anyone in the biz.  He knows what he's talking about. Obey the talking head.

Recently, Joyner reiterated in an ESPN chat room that new Bears QB Jay Cutler "will make Bears fan remember Rex Grossman."

Believe it or not, Bears nation did not take kindly to this in spite of Joyner's condolences that "all Grossman did was take the Bears to the Super Bowl."

Granted, my fan brethren are not the most reasonable in the world, but they know a skunk when they smell it.

We watch the Bears, KC.  That's not all Grossman did.

So what exactly compelled Mr. Joyner to make the Cutler-Grossman comparison?

"His 9.8 vertical YPA was lower than that of 19 other QBs last season, and his 4.6 percent bad decision rate (a bad decision being a mistake by the QB that leads to a turnover or a near turnover) was easily the worst of any QB," wrote Joyner in his blog on the NY Times site.

Anyone with a brain will tell you when you're behind, you're most likely going to be passing.  For Cutler, something to the tune of 616 attempts in 2008 with the Broncos.  A simple, non-scientific look at a calculator will tell you that the 4.6% rate of "bad decisions", from 616 attempts, brings us to 28.33 bad decisions.

Cutler had 18 interceptions last season and 5 fumbles, 2 of those recovered by the opposing side. Joyner is then crediting Cutler with 5-8 near turnovers, per his own explanation of the highly scientific BDR (bad decision rate).

Over 16 regular season games, Joyner's numbers tell us Cutler is credited with about two bad decisions per game, leading to a turnover or near turnover. 

My numbers, however, suggest that Cutler either did not turn the ball over or did turn the ball over, 100 percent of the time.

With such an alarming bad decision rate, you would think the Broncos offense would be in the bottom of the league in efficiency.

Good thing there are actual number crunchers out there who tell the real story.

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