Ranking the Detroit Red Wings' Top 10 Prospects
2013-14 was the season of the prospect in Detroit.
A tough year saw a slew of injuries, especially up front, and that meant major minutes and surprising prominence for a pretty spectacular group of rookies and near-rookies.
Five different skaters who had spent the vast majority of 2012-13 in the AHL (Gustav Nyquist, Tomas Tatar, Riley Sheahan, Tomas Jurco and Luke Glendening) all played—and for the most part played surprisingly well—in the majors, but their graduation from prospects to players didn't empty Detroit's always-impressive system.
The following slideshow ranks the team's 10 best remaining Calder-eligible prospects (don't go looking for anyone on the list above; they have all played too many NHL games to qualify) and provides capsule scouting reports. Prospects are primarily ranked based on their potential NHL ceiling, but the amount of risk involved in that projection is also a significant factor in this list.
10. Mattias Janmark-Nylen
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Profile
It's hard to do better here than quote the redoubtable Hakan Andersson, director of European scouting for the Wings.
"He’s confident with the puck, his speed his fine, his hands are very good, and he’s tenacious—he chases the puck all the time," Andersson told Red Wings Central in July 2013. "He’s not physical, but he chases the puck. If he loses it, he chases it and gets it right back. If he doesn’t have the puck, his feet are always moving."
A late bloomer who wasn't drafted until 2013 despite being eligible in 2011, Janmark's offence has exploded over the last three seasons.
Risk factor
There is always some risk that a European player won't be able to make the transition to North America—and Janmark posted mediocre numbers in an AHL cameo last season (eight games, one assist)—but if any team knows how to manage the change, it is Detroit.
NHL projection
Top-nine forward.
9. Andreas Athanasiou
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Red Line Report marked Athanasiou as the second-best skater in the 2012 draft, behind only first overall pick Nail Yakupov, and that speed is the item mentioned in pretty much every scouting report. RLR also sharply criticized his hands and his hockey sense, identifying him as one of the draft's most overrated players as a result.
At the time, Athanasiou's production tended to support that view, but his scoring has exploded over the last two seasons, and there isn't a team in the league that doesn't want a blazing fast winger with scoring touch.
Risk factor
Two years ago, the risk factor was extremely high, but with Athanasiou's evolving offence, it's less of a concern. His defensive game is still open to question, and it's worth noting he's done nothing as a pro just yet. He posted four points in an eight-game AHL cameo to end the 2013-14 season.
NHL projection
Middle-six forward.
8. Alexey Marchenko
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One item really working in Marchenko's favour is that he's a right-handed shot in an organization dominated by lefties.
More than that, he's a solid defensive defenceman with plus size, intelligence and the ability to advance the puck. Gustav Nyquist described him to MLive.com's Ansar Khan as "a real solid, well-rounded player" with strong defence and some offensive ability; in the same piece goalie Petr Mrazek called him "very smart" and "a great defensive player."
Risk factor
Big guys with hockey sense and a range of ability are generally pretty low risks; that Marchenko has two full seasons as a pro (one in the KHL, one in the AHL) helps too. The only real question is injury. He's missed significant time at an awfully young age, and many a promising career has been derailed by poor health.
NHL projection
Bottom-four defenceman.
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7. Teemu Pulkkinen
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McKeen's Hockey absolutely loved this player in his draft year—the magazine had him as a late first-round pick—owing to his tenacity and offensive ceiling.
"Although undersized, Pulkkinen is an absolute tyrant in the offensive zone," the profile read in part. "He has sensational hand skills and passing ability, and on the power play he could be one of the most offensively gifted players available for the draft."
Skating has been flagged as an occasional issue going back to the draft, and Pulkkinen's two-way game isn't as strong as it might be.
Risk factor
Durability is a bit of a concern, given Pulkkinen's style of play. He did score 31 goals and 59 points as an AHL rookie (leading Grand Rapids in both categories), which erases any question of his ability to adapt to the North American game.
NHL projection
Middle-six forward.
6. Mattias Backman
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Profile
Defencemen who can skate and move the puck are always at a real premium in the NHL, and that's what makes Backman such an intriguing prospect.
In conversation with Fox Sports' Dana Wakiji, Grand Rapids coach Jeff Blashill endorsed comparisons to star rookie Danny DeKeyser.
"[Backman] skates very well, he's got a real long stick. They both have skinnier bodies that they've had to build up their strength so that they can handle the rigors of pro hockey. He's got a real ability to get back to the puck, break it out, he can pass the puck real well. I think he's got borderline dynamic offensive ability from the blue line in.
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Backman is listed at 6'2", 170 pounds. Strength and a lack of North American experience would seem to be the main items holding him back.
Risk factor
Backman's AHL debut went as well as it could reasonably go, with him recording six points in 12 games and getting significant minutes right from the start. He's had three full years of pro experience in Sweden and seems a pretty safe prospect.
NHL projection
Top-four defenceman.
5. Ryan Sproul
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Profile
There aren't that many 6'3" defencemen with plus skating and significant offensive upside around. Sproul is one of them, and as a special bonus he's also a right-handed shot on a team in desperate shortage of them on the back end.
All down the line, the real concern has been his ability to shut things down in his own end of the ice, and that's still a bit of an issue.
"Sproul plays a higher risk, higher reward style game," writes SBNation blogger SlapshotGoal. "[He] still makes mistakes in the AHL that are what I would call significant—sloppy turnovers, passing to the other team because he didn't look first, forgetting he's covering the point and then passing back to the point for an odd man rush."
Risk factor
Rookie pros make mistakes, so it isn't a surprise to learn that the 21-year-old at times looked a little raw in his first AHL campaign. There are so many positives that a bit of a learning curve isn't a major worry.
NHL projection
Top-four defenceman.
4. Xavier Ouellet
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Profile
In some ways, Ouellet seems like an odd choice to be rated so highly on this list. He's slightly undersized for his position, listed at 6'1", 190 pounds by the Red Wings' official site, and he's also not known as an exceptional skater.
Despite that, he's a top prospect for what he does bring. Red Wings head coach Mike Babcock praised Ouellet's hockey sense and decision-making to the The Hockey News mag, and virtually every report describes him as a complete player with exceptional positioning, character and two-way ability.
He spent his last two seasons in the QMJHL as team captain.
Risk factor
Because Ouellet does so many things well, there seems to be little doubt that he'll eventually be an NHL player. The question is how high on the depth chart he'll climb; while he's a safe bet, his size and skating limit his ceiling.
NHL projection
Top-four defenceman.
3. Petr Mrazek
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Mrazek isn't overly big at 6'1", 184 pounds, but he's a highly athletic goalie with a penchant for highlight-reel saves. He opened a lot of eyes with his performance at the 2012 World Juniors, where he helped keep an outmatched Czech team competitive. He's confident, even cocky, and plays an aggressive style that includes a willingness (and ability) to leave his net to handle and move the puck.
Risk factor
Goaltenders defy prediction, but Mrazek has been gold over two full AHL seasons and looked great in a pair of major league cameos. He's as close to being a sure thing as minor league goalies get.
NHL projection
No. 1 goaltender.
2. Dylan Larkin
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Profile
One of Red Line Report's two 2014 mock drafts had Larkin going to Detroit, with the brief explanation saying he is "smart, dependable, makes the right plays at the right time, and can play the way the Red Wings like to approach the game."
He's a two-way player with tremendous skating and a reputation for exceptional character, and he was also a point-per-game player with the U.S. development program in 2013-14.
Risk factor
Larkin's youth (he's 18) ups the risk factor a little, but his reputation as a player who just does everything right helps bring it back down.
NHL projection
Top-six forward.
1. Anthony Mantha
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Two sets of numbers sum up why Mantha is so highly regarded. The first is 6'5", 204 pounds; the second is 57 goals in 57 games. The list of massive players with that kind of ridiculous offensive ability is extremely short.
He's massive and an excellent skater with a wide range of offensive tools, including the ability to set up his linemates (he had 120 points in 57 QMJHL games in 2013-14).
His willingness to play a physical game has been criticized, as has his work ethic. Red Line Report asked if he even had a pulse in his draft year, and Detroit coach Mike Babcock told MLive.com's Ansar Khan that Mantha had "to learn to compete like a pro" when he was cut last September.
Risk factor
Awfully low. There isn't much that an NHL team won't do to make sure a player like Mantha figures out whatever he needs to figure out.
NHL projection
Elite goal-scoring winger.
Jonathan Willis covers the NHL for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter for more of his work.
Statistics courtesy of EliteProspects.com, unless otherwise noted. Scouting reports from McKeen's Hockey, Red Line Report (subscription required) and Red Wings Central were consulted in writing profiles.
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