Twins April Notes III

Here’s a quick statistical look at the position players on the Twins’ active roster:  

Catchers

Joe Mauer

A .333 BA and .831 OPS so far this season are early indicators that Mauer is on the rebound from a disappointing season last year. I say 2007 was disappointing, but, the truth was, Mauer would have ranked fourth in OPS among qualified catchers last year had he played enough games. 

This year Mauer ranks fourth in the majors in OPS among catchers.  So it’s only the batting average that has changed, and nobody should care much for batting average.

Mike Redmond

Red turns 37 today. He has built his entire career on being able to take an unbelievable beating behind the plate and still being an offensive pest to opposing teams.  Looking at his age and .445 OPS so far this year it looks like there can’t be much left in Redmond’s tank.  However, based on his line drive percentage (LD%) and ground ball percentage (GB%) Redmond should repeat or even improve his .294/.346/.353 line from last year. 

The big issue with Redmond is the fact the Twins don’t do a good job of platooning.  Red does very well against lefties but never seems to get many starts against them.

Infielders

*Brian Buscher (now in AAA)

Buscher was a looking to be a career minor leaguer before 2007.  In 2007 is career took a big jump as his OPS jumped almost 200 points from his career average and he went from AA to a September call-up to the majors.  Now, between the majors and the minors his OPS is once again over .800 and it’s looking like 2007 wasn’t a fluke. 

Buscher doesn’t project to be anything better than a below average third baseman but at least it’s only slightly below average.  Buscher taking over third regularly would be an improvement for the Twins.

Adam Everett

Twins fans have been very disappointed in shortstop Adam Everett this year.  He didn’t look great in the field and his bat has been miserable.  On the offensive side it looks like Everett has been a little unlucky and he should progress near to the not-really-respectable .231/.281/.318 he hit last year. 

Defensively, things are a little more complicated. 

It looks like a majority of his errors are throwing errors and those could have easily been caused by the arm problems he was having.  His zone rating is about the same as it was last year but he’s not making as many plays “out-of-zone” as he normally does.  This is probably a product of aging and can’t be avoided.  He’s not the flop Twins fans think and things will get better, but I’d still release him if given the option.

Brendan Harris

The Twins second baseman has become a productive member of the team and his .705 OPS, while not awe inspiring, isn’t embarrassing for a second basemen.  Harris might turn out to be one of the better acquisitions for Twins rookie GM Bill Smith.

Mike Lamb

Ugh.  Lamb was one of the free-agent signings the Twins made in the offseason and he was supposed to fill an organizational hole at third base.  Well, Lamb and GM Bill Smith both get a fat Fail here.  Lamb’s .210/.234/.284 is deplorable and they are products of the fact Lamb is hitting less line drives and fewer groundballs then he ever has.  Soft fly balls are the easiest way to make an out short of striking out and Lamb just isn’t getting the job done.

Justin Morneau

Morneau’s .853 OPS is actually an improvement over last year but it’s still short of his .934 OPS in 2006 when he won the MVP.  Morneau is have a better year than I predicted he would and there’s a lot of positives in his numbers.  He’s increased his LD% and GB% while reducing the number of fly-balls he hits though he’s made those fly-balls much more productive by increasing the number of homeruns he hits per fly-ball (HR/F).  Things are looking good for the Twins first baseman.

Nick Punto

After having one of the worst offensive years ever at third base last year, Punto has found a better spot to be woeful, the bench.  As a utility infielder Punto is just plain bad rather than flagitious.  He’s got a decent glove but his .585 OPS this year is sadly an improvement over last year.  Punto is no longer a major league quality player.

Matt Tolbert

Tolbert had a lot of success early on and has cooled lately.  It looks as if his OPS has stabilized right around .700.  A minor league veteran, Tolbert is the prototypical “replacement player” sabermetricians talk about.  It’s guys like Tolbert who get hurt by guys like Punto.  Tolbert surprised people by making the Twins’ active roster but they shouldn’t, he deserved it.  So far he has played 2B, SS and 3B for the Twins and he should be a serviceable utility player at the major league level.

Outfielders

Michael Cuddyer

The Twins right fielder has shown a slight dip in batting performance this year.  His OPS has dropped by 70 points from last year.  Cuddyer has had an increase in the number of infield-fly-balls he’s hit while he’s also seeing fewer pitches per plate appearance. Something is off kilter but it’s hard to pin down exactly what it is.  I’m not worried, yet.

Carlos Gomez

Gomez was the centerpiece in the Santana trade.  He’s been the starting centerfielder and leadoff man for the Twins.  Gomez is a remarkable athlete and his numbers are showing incremental improvement over last year.  Should he be starting and leading off?  Probably not.  People have been hypnotized by his athleticism but so far his actual production has been replacement level.  I think he needs more time in the minors but he’s definitely got a bright future ahead.

Jason Kubel

The Twins DH has been a hard luck case over the years.  Despite incredible minor league numbers he’s never been able to come close to meeting his potential at the majors.  A knee injury which almost ended his career has been dogging him a long time.  It was looking like Twins fans might finally see the real Jason Kubel but so far his production has been near his personal worst.  More worryingly, his LD% is way down from his career norm.  Luckily, Kubel is a predictable slow starter and his numbers should improve as the year progresses.

Craig Monroe

As much as it hurts me to say this, Monroe should continue to platoon at DH with Jason Kubel.  He simply hasn’t given the Twins any reason to fire him just yet.  He has a .797 OPS and until his numbers go down he should probably continue to play regularly.  I’m not going to wish him ill, though I wouldn’t mind seeing him go.  His LD%, which is actually over 30% right now, is unsustainable and we’ll see some regression soon enough.

*Denard Span (Now in AAA)

The AAA CF came up when Cuddyer was injured and was immediately sent back down upon Cuddyer’s return.  Span had a .582 OPS but his career minor league OPS of .698 shows the possibility of improvement if given a chance. 

Delmon Young

The Twins leftfielder, the highlight of the Garza/Bartlett trade, has, like all the other Twins hitters, been struggling.  A .613 OPS from a leftfielder is bad.  But, his career average OPS in April is only .646 (compared to a career .722 OPS) so he might just be a slow starter.  Time will tell.