Deal or No Deal? Tim Lincecum's Contract Situation in the Future

(Photo by Jed Jacobsohn/Getty Images)

Why don’t the San Francisco Giants lock up ace Tim Lincecum to a long-term contract?

Since the end of his 2008 Cy Young campaign, I have been answering the above question to more people that I can remember. 

Now, with another stellar season almost halfway done, and with Lincecum among the leaders in almost every pitching category, that question is once again finding its way into many a conversation.

Before this season started, the Giants signed the 24-year-old phenom to a paltry $650,000 contract. To anyone who looks at that number, it looks like the Giants are both taking advantage of the biggest steal ever while also being the biggest idiots for only signing him to a one-year deal.

This article is an attempt to explain the reasons, from both sides, that the Giants signed him for such a low price, and why it might happen again after 2009.

The Giants probably want to commit the money, but they reserve more flexibility if something should happen to Lincecum, whether it is an injury or some freak of nature regression.

Lincecum (and his people) would go for a long-term deal if they wanted financial security. But since he has only shown that he can get better, by going year-to-year, they can maximize the amount of time he goes to arbitration.

Since every new contract has to be at least 80 percent of the year’s past, he stands to make a lot of money.

The system of arbitration and player rights is so complicated, probably because it is the oldest sport in the country as well as the only sport that has a fully developed and utilized minor-league system.

Let’s start at the beginning.

When Tim Lincecum graduated from Liberty High School in Renton, Wash., in 2003, he entered the draft and was drafted in the 48th round by the Chicago Cubs. As per the draft rules, he chose not to sign with the Cubs and instead proceeded to pitch at the University of Washington.

If a player is drafted, he has the option to sign with a team, or to not sign and go to college. If the player chooses to go to college, they are not eligible until after three years in school or until they are 21 years old.

After his junior year with the Huskies, he was again draft eligible and entered his name in 2005. That year, he was selected by the Cleveland Indians in the 42nd round.

But once more, he failed to sign and went back to Washington for his senior year.

Lincecum came off a Golden Spikes Award-winning senior year and was drafted with the 10th overall pick by the Giants, which was a full 41 rounds higher than his spot a year before. He signed with the team on June 30, less than a month after the draft and two weeks after his 21st birthday.

San Francisco shelled out a then-record $2.025 million signing bonus to sign the young pitcher, which was broken when they signed teenage sensation Angel Villalona to a $2.1 million bonus less than a month later.

Under league rules, after a player is drafted, he is under team control for six years.

That means Lincecum is under team control until 2012, and cannot become an outright free agent until then.

After three years, or two if he obtains Super Two status, which Lincecum did, the remainder of the years (until the original six are up) are a player’s arbitration years. This means that the team has the exclusive right to offer a contract.

Here’s where it get’s tricky. One might look to fellow Giant youngster Matt Cain, who was locked up through his arbitration years in 2007 by signing a $9 million deal that runs through 2010, with an option for 2011. Cain makes a reasonable $2.65 million this year, and will make $4.25 million next year. 

So why can’t Lincecum be locked up for a similarly priced contract?

Both sides have an argument for this question, and they both make sense.

From the Giants' side, it’s an issue of committing too much money before they know what they have. With Cain, who broke in as a 20-year old rookie with a big fastball and a lot of potential, they locked up a young prospect for relatively low money.

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