Johan Santana Non-Trade Can Tell Us About Roy Halladay

(Photo by Nick Laham/Getty Images)

All of the hullaballoo about Roy Halladay being on the trade market has made many Yankee fans think back to the 2007-2008 off-season, and the Johan Santana trade that wasn't.

For those that need a refresher course, let's recap:

• Johan Santana was on the market that season because he was slated to become a free agent at the end of 2008 and the miserly Twins did not want to pay what it would have cost to kept him.

• Therefore, whatever team traded for Santana would also have to be willing to sign him to a long contract extension as well.

• No one not named Brian Cashman and Bill Smith know for sure, but the rumored deal the Yankees had on the table was Hughes + Melky Cabrera + Jeffrey Marquez.

• Santana ended up going to the Mets for Carlos Gomez, Phillip Humber, Deolis Guerra, and Kevin Mulvey

• Of the four the Mets traded, only Carlos Gomez is currently playing in the Majors.
  

• It is widely believed that Twins' GM Bill Smith overplayed his hand with the Red Sox and Yankees and settled for a package that, in the words of some, has netted him "nothing".

Got all that?

Good.

Now, 2008 was an interesting season, in that despite the Mets' trade and the Yankees' non-trade, neither team made the playoffs.

For the Mets, the problem in 2008 was not Santana. He pitched to an ERA of 2.58 and an ERA+ of 168--while not the best numbers he's ever put up (especially in WHIP), the numbers are still very, very respectable. Sure, he did give up a grand slam to Felix Hernandez (yes, THAT King Felix), but on the whole Santana did exactly what the Mets needed him to do.

The problem, however, was that the Mets kept blowing his leads. His record, 16-7 for 08, is impressive enough...but when you consider that he started 34 games (thus getting a decision in only 23 of these starts) you begin to see how life went for fans of the Mets last season.


For the Yankees, on the other hand, 2008 was an unmitigated disaster for both Hughes and Cabrera; Marquez's season was un-special enough that he ended up being shipped to Chicago with Wilson Betemit for Nick Swisher and Kanekoa Texeira.

Hughes spent most of 2008 injured; he pitched only 34 innings with a WHIP over 1.70 and an ERA over 6.60.

Cabrera started the season hot and cooled off so much that by the end of the season he had an OBP of .301. He was sent down to AAA Scranton; though by then it was far too little too late. In other words, he was as close to an automatic out in the Yankee line up as you could get.




Fast forward one year later, and things have changed.

For instance, Johan Santana, while not necessarily having a bad season, is having a bad season for him and there are warning signs.

• Since 2002, Santana's 3.29 ERA is second only to his 2006 3.33 ERA. Again, it's not that this is a bad stat, but that it's poor for him. After all, his ERA was 2.53 last season and he's moved from the American League to the weaker National League.

• More concerning: his WHIP of 1.22 is the highest it's been since 2002; his H/9 is the highest since 2002; and his walks are up while strikeouts are down. In other words, his peripheral statistics are declining and, at age 30, Santana should be in the middle--not the wrong end--of his prime.

• Mets fans might want to stay away from this one: in the past nine months, Johan Santana has had knee surgery and elbow problems; now word comes to us today that he's just received a cortisone shot.

• Just for kicks: in his last five starts Santana is 1-4 with a 5.64 ERA and nearly equal strike outs to walks. I know Santana can't be blamed for the shoddy defense behind him, but unearned runs don't count towards ERA and he can't blame that start against the Yankees on his defense.

You're currently logged into Facebook

Do you want to share your Bleacher Report activity on Facebook?