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In several mock drafts, Larry Fitzgerald, Randy Moss, and Andre Johnson have taken turns being the first receiver off the board. All three have found themselves drafted in the first round on at least a few occasions.
But those are easy calls.
It's difficult to assess talent and environment. After the first tier of receivers, there seems to be a huge drop-off.
That's where the casual fantasy player gets lost. The truth is that there is production all the way to the last guy on this list. The main problem is weeding out the "talents" that are the most likely to have a bad season, and knowing each player's status with their team.
Be sure to track position battles, injuries, and any trades that could affect that players you intend on drafting. And if you don't know where to draft them, just keep reading.
Tier One (Rounds 1-4)
1. Larry Fitzgerald—Arizona Cardinals
With Kurt Warner returning and an improved ground game, Fitzgerald should be able to pick-up where he left off in the Super Bowl. He has excellent size, hands, speed, and intangibles, making him the best all-around receiver in the game.
If that's not enough to entice you, just look at the guy's stats. He has recorded at least 1,400 yards and 10 scores in three of his last four seasons. No one else in the league has done that.
2. Randy Moss—New England Patriots
Moss put up good numbers with Matt Cassel behind center (1,000 yards and 11 scores). Just imagine what he'll be capable of with Tom Brady back at the helm.
He may not break his 23-touchdown record, but he could certainly come close.
3. Andre Johnson—Houston Texans
Johnson showed he belongs in conversations about the NFL's elite receivers last season as he topped 1,100 yards for the third time in his career.
Matt Schaub loves Johnson, and the chemistry is only going to get better. As long as both players stay healthy, you can expect Johnson to hover around his 2008 totals of 1,500 yards and eight touchdowns.
4. Calvin Johnson—Detroit Lions
The second year man put up over 1,300 yards and 12 scores for a team that didn't win a single game last season.
With his 6'5'' frame and excellent speed and ball skills, he'll only continue to get better. His numbers could be affected, depending on how is the starting quarterback, but if he can excel with Dan Orlovsky, you really don't have much to worry about.
5. Steve Smith—Carolina Panthers
Smith isn't a touchdown machine, but he is easily one of the best receivers in the league. He put up over 1,400 yards last season for the second time in his career while also scoring six touchdowns.
He's only topped eight scores once in his career, so he isn't very valuable in pure scoring leagues. But in performance leagues, he's a must-have.
6. Reggie Wayne—Indianapolis Colts
Wayne could normally be ahead of Smith and possibly even Calvin Johnson, based on his chemistry with Peyton Manning and consistent elite performances.
However, there is now cause for slight concern with Marvin Harrison gone, as well as the departures of Tony Dungy and Tom Moore.
You can still expect Wayne to crack 1,200 yards and close in on 10 scores, as he is now officially Manning's go-to guy.
7. Greg Jennings—Green Bay Packers
Jennings has improved in every year with Green Bay, and after signing a big new contract, he will be comfortable and care-free in his fourth season.
With his big-play ability and reliable hands, Jennings is a safe bet to match 2008's yardage total (1,292 yards), and could even get back to 2007's 12 touchdowns.
As his chemistry with Aaron Rodgers continues to improve, so does his stock as a fantasy receiver.
8. Roddy White—Atlanta Falcons
Roddy White ridded of the one-year wonder label in 2008, as he put up over 1,382 yards, notching over 1,200 for the second straight year.
The addition of Tony Gonzalez may take some targets away, but with Matt Ryan's comfort level increasing, his numbers are unlikely to dip.
9. Anquan Boldin—Arizona Cardinals
He wants to be traded, and then he doesn't. Then he does, and then you hear about contract negotiations again. Boldin's status with the team is enough to scare anyone away.
However, his production and toughness should wash away any worries.
Boldin may play second-fiddle to Larry Fitzgerald, but he's vastly underrated. He has put up over 1,000 yards in four out of six seasons, and topped 10 scores for the first time in his career last season.
While he may not be a touchdown king, Boldin is definitely a safe fantasy choice for so long as he's wearing red and white.
10. Brandon Marshall—Denver Broncos
Marshall—extremely productive and talented—is facing a season loaded with questions.
He lost his quarterback, is in a new system, is struggling with a hip injury, and reportedly wants to be traded.
Great. Where do you draft him?
With over 100 receptions, 1,000 yards, and at least six scores in back-to-back seasons, draft him like there isn't a care in the world. But don't draft him over any of the previous nine receivers.
11. Terrell Owens—Dallas Cowboys
Even at 36, Terrell Owens can still get behind the secondary, and he's still a match-up nightmare. He may have lost some consistency, but he can still be dominant.
The only problem is, he's in a new city, and he doesn't have the usual Pro Bowl-level quarterback that he's accustomed to.
The just is still out on Trent Edwards, but he should perform well enough to help Owens reach 1,000 yards and over 10 scores for the fourth straight year.
12. Wes Welker—New England Patriots
Welker may not be as explosive as the guys before him, and he's definitely not a touchdown machine.
Certainly, he is a reception king though.
Welker fell just one catch short of his 112 reception total from the glorious 2007 season, despite not having Tom Brady around.
Expect his receptions to stay the same (or even rise), while a return to his 2007 touchdown total—eight—is more likely than a repeat of his three from last season.
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