Chaser or Racer: NASCAR's Race to the Chase (Daytona)

Analyst Written on July 03, 2009

DAYTONA BEACH, FL - FEBRUARY 17: Ryan Newman, driver of the #12 Alltel Dodge, during the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Daytona 500 at Daytona International Speedway on February 17, 2008 in Daytona Beach, Florida. (Photo by Jason Smith/Getty Images for NASCAR)

(Photo by Jason Smith/Getty Images for NASCAR)

Like last year, mother nature interfered with the Lenox Tool 301 (and it’s “extra mile,” even though we haven’t that race go the full distance since they lengthened). Unlike last year, though, no one was really “bitten” by the rain and suffered poor results because of strategy.

The guys who ran up front throughout the race finished up there for the most part. Of course, Joey Logano grabbed win using strategy, while David Reutimann took fourth, and Brad Keselowski sixth because of mother nature’s intervention.

But, the rain itself didn’t really hurt a lot of the guys in the running for the Chase. What hurt those guys was poor runs or crashes (especially for those who trapped in Loudon’s version of “The Big One”).

What’s more, those who ran poorly at Loudon have the wildcard of Daytona International Speedway in front of them this weekend…and we all know what a restrictor plate race and do (just ask Carl Edwards).

10th place Matt Kenseth

Kenseth’s struggles continued last week, as he could do no better than 22nd. Surely, Kenseth and the No. 17 team will have to do better than that in this stretch run to the Chase. He’s only 17 points ahead of Reutimann…who’s in 14th. He could easily fall to 15th or worse this week, if things don’t go in his favor.

Now, you may be thinking “But, he won at Daytona in February. Shouldn’t that make him a favorite this weekend?” You’d be correct to think that he should at least be in the front running group, but restrictor plate racing has never been a Roush strong point.

Jack Roush even admitted that he wasn’t sure if he’d even win the Daytona 500, because of their plate racing package. Given that Kenseth hasn’t met the success he had in the first two races, problems this weekend could spell “doom” for his chances of making the Chase.

If he can get through this weekend, he’ll have dodged a bullet…but would still have to run better. Finishes in the 20s aren’t going to be helpful Richmond gets closer.

11th place Mark Martin

The “Old Man” seems to be stuck on the edge of making the Chase right now. He finished 14th last week, which isn’t a bad run, but didn’t do much to help get in a safe spot in the standings.

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written on July 03, 2009 Preview/Prediction

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