Harvick’s the Fantasy Pick for Richmond

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Is Tony Stewart going to leave Joe Gibbs Racing and if he is, what does that mean for the rest of 2008? Those are the big questions that the NASCAR community is dealing with this week. What seemed like just another rumor ON PIT ROW a week ago has grown to ominous status since Talladega. The latest evidence seems to have Stewart heading for a different - likely Chevy powered - organization. Mike Mulhern has a good read on that and the other dominoes ready to fall in the 2008 silly season.

Stewart has the fourth best Richmond Loop Data Driver Rating going into the weekend in Virginia. His 102.2 trails his red-hot teammates Kyle Busch at 109.00 and Denny Hamlin with 111.3. Stewart is a three time winner at Richmond while the others are win-less. Get this - Stewart’s career Ave Finish at RIR is a very good 11.3. But Busch and Hamlin have averaged 6.2 and 6.5 respectively. The scenario bodes well for Joe Gibbs Racing but be honest. Do you pick Tony over the two youngsters?

Kurt Busch has the fifth best Driver Rating at 100.8 and has a win and six top tens. But Kurt’s 2008 looks like a write-off year for the Blue Deuce. I pass.

Dale Earnhardt Jr captured his last Cup Series win at Richmond two years ago and he has three wins total here. Junior sits tenth in the Loop with a DR of 89.9 - do you sense a quicker drop off than most weeks? Earnhardt trails four big names who have had, more or less undistinguished first nine races this year. Matt Kenseth, Ryan Newman and Kasey Kahne are Richmond winners. Greg Biffle is not. The best Ave Finish of the bunch is Newman’s 10.0. The most impressive Loop stat of the group is Kasey Kahne’s 249 laps led in the last six races.

Jeff Gordon, Jimmy Johnson, Jeff Burton and Carl Edwards are all well back in the Loop pack, although Gordon and Johnson have led 305 and 213 Loop laps respectively. Johnson swept the races last year and Gordon (2) and Burton are RIR winners. This has not been a good track for Cousin Carl.

Any one of those drivers could win this race. So could Martin Truex Jr, Mark Martin or Clint Bowyer. I just can’t pick those guys if I base my choice on Loop stats.

The stud this week is Kevin Harvick. Happy leads the Loop Driver Rating at 121.2 - ten points better than second place. In fact he tops out in more than half of the Loop Box Score categories. His Ave Position is 5.6 and Ave Finish 5.5. Harvick had 259 Fastest Laps, 2267 (94.5%) Laps in the Top Fifteen and 599 Laps Led - 25% of all of the laps run the last six races. No driver is even close.

Kevin Harvick has been very steady this year. This looks like the week to break through with a win. For a dark horse I’ll take Virginia native Elliott Sadler. Those GEM cars are looking better lately and home cookin’ can’t hurt.

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