(Photo by Doug Benc/Getty Images)
Today was July 1st, the first day of NBA free agency and the offseason moves are already in full swing. Reportedly, the Detroit Pistons have reached agreements with Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva. The contract numbers for these two guys are going to be scrutinized by other free agents to see what kind of economic climate really exists in the NBA.
Fans of the Atlanta Hawks have to be a little nervous. Two teams that finished behind the Hawks in the Eastern Conference already have made moves to improve their teams. The Pistons are one, but the Washington Wizards have also improved their roster dramatically.
The Cleveland Cavaliers and the Orlando Magic have made blockbuster trades that may or may not improve their teams. I am a big believer in Vince Carter, but the Magic are really going to miss Hedo Turkoglu’s locker room presence, shooting touch, and passing ability.
The Villanueva signing actually should help the Hawks. It sets a salary range for some of the Hawks' free agents and it might cause some player movement that benefits Atlanta.
To try and calm the fear and anxiety of the Hawks' nation, I have looked into my crystal ball, crunched the numbers, weighed the pros and cons, tallied up the salaries, consulted a Taro card reader, asked some mall shoppers at Lenox, and mined my many sources of information in the city of Atlanta.
The Hawks are going to be better in 2009-2010 and here are the reasons why:
1. Mike Bibby will not be a Hawk next year, but Flip Murray will re-sign with Atlanta. According to a recent ranking, Bibby was the 46th highest-paid athlete in the United States last year. Unfortunately for him, there is no market for a player like that in the NBA.
The ridiculous number of point guards drafted in the first round last week and his obvious defensive problems have really hurt Bibby. I think he might end up reuniting with Rick Adelman and the Houston Rockets on a two-year deal.
Flip Murray is going to be a Hawk. For some reason, I think Flip has a loyalty to Rick Sund after almost being taken out of the NBA last season. Doubling his salary for one year to $3 million probably will not hurt that loyalty.
2. Marvin Williams will be an Atlanta Hawk next year. If I were giving advice to Marvin, I would tell him to sign the Hawks’ qualifying offer and become an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2010 when there are going to be some big names available. But I do not think many of these guys will change teams (although it sounds like Joe Johnson might be leaving the ATL).
Williams could play himself into a bigger contract if he stays healthy and maybe has some big playoff performances for Atlanta in the spring of 2010. Williams was much improved this season, he is still young, and he made a bigger commitment to the defensive end of the floor this past year.
Williams has similar numbers to Villanueva. I would take him over the twittering Villanueva in a heartbeat. If Williams would sign an offer sheet with another team for Villanueva type dollars—five years for $35 million—the Hawks definitely would match that contract.
Williams is worth that money. I would prefer to sign him for fewer years, but I think the Hawks would be stupid not to match at that point. In either case, Williams is going to be in Atlanta next season.
3. Josh Childress is not coming back this season. Childress is going to ride out this summer and spend next year in Greece. There are a myriad of factors at work here including the depressed American economy, the likelihood that NBA teams are going to spend more next summer, and Childress’ hurt feelings.
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