September 20th will mark a big day in SEC football, though it is so early in the season. There are three very important games that day that may begin to shape the rest of the season.
On that day LSU will play at Auburn, Tennessee will be playing Florida in Knoxville and Arkansas will be entertaining Alabama in Fayetteville.
Last year, before 92,000 screaming Tide fans, Alabama jumped out to a 21-0 first quarter lead and it appeared that they would put Arkansas away before the end of the first half. Arkansas managed to recover and hold Alabama to no points in the second quarter while Arkansas scored 10. Despite a 28 point surge by Arkansas in the second half, 21 of which came in the 4th quarter, Alabama managed to score 20 to outlast Arkansas 41-38.
The year before in Fayetteville, on a night that saw Alabama kicker Leigh Tiffin miss 3 of 4 field goal attempts, the end of regulation play found Arkansas and Alabama tied at 17-17. Alabama scored a TD in overtime and Tiffin missed the extra point putting Bama up 23-17. Arkansas took the ball and on a third and 8 from the 11, Mitch Mustain tossed a TD to TE Ben Cleveland for a 24-23 victory over Alabama.
These teams always tend to play each other close and 2008 promises to be no different. Saban drew a pass last year when Alabama went 7-6 including a 30-24 victory over Colorado in the PetroSun Independence Bowl in Shreveport.
This is an important season for him as Alabama fans may not be quite so patient this year. Bobby Petrino is coming into his first season as the Head Coach at Arkansas and while Arkansas fans may be willing to give him a pass in terms of results for this season, it appears that Petrino is not willing to accept a pass for himself, his staff or his team.
My guess is that this will be another "barn-burner" of a game.
Alabama returns John Parker Wilson at QB who last year in 13 games completed 255 of 462 passes(55.2%) for 2,846 yards with 18 TD's and 12 INT's averaging 218.9 yards per game passing.
On Arkansas' side of the ball, they return Casey Dick at QB who in 13 games last year was 150 of 262(57.3%) for 1,695 yards with 18 TD's and 10 INT's averaging 130.4 yards per game.
Wilson's number have declined each of the last three years in terms of completion percentage. As for Dick, being subjected to a new offensive philosophy coaching, his numbers through the spring have improved to above 60% in completion percentage while throwing for over 400 yards in the Arkansas spring game.
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Will Casey Dick be able to produce at a +60% completion percentage level during the season? Only time will tell for certain but it is apparent that Dick's judgement and mechanics have improved and it is likely that Arkansas will have a QB that throws a great deal more this year than they have in the recent past. Though he is unproven under fire as a complete QB and as a passer I have to give the advantage to: Arkansas
Alabama returns 4 of their starting 5 offensive linemen and they average 6'-3" and 305 lbs across the line led by Center Antoine Caldwell. Arkansas returns 3 of 5 starting offensive linemen who also average 6'-3" but who average weight is a bit bigger at 308 lbs. per man.
The Alabama line has been taught to run and pass block in the past while the Arkansas line really just got their first good taste of pass blocking this spring. Both lines will be good and will be filled in by players who have experience but in this case, I have to give the advantage to: Alabama
At TE Alabama returns starter Nick Walker at 6'5", 255lbs. He was basically used as a blocking TE last season though he had 5 catches for 69 yards in the spring game.
Arkansas returns Andrew Davie at 6'5", 266 lbs and he too was basically used as blocking TE last season and he had 2 catches for 20 yards in their spring game. The bigger news is that Arkansas also returns TE D.J. Williams at 6'2", 250 lbs. who has turned out to be quite the receiver having caught 9 for 80 yards in the Arkansas spring game. Could he be an emerging star? This advantage has to go to: Arkansas
At FB/H-Back, Alabama returns Travis McCall at 6'2", 261 lbs. He caught 2 passes in their spring game for 39 yards. At Arkansas, they return Ben Cleveland at 6'4", 252 lbs. Cleveland was an emerging star in his freshmen year before being sidelined with an injury all of last year. You can also look for D.J. Williams or Andrew Davie to slide into this position from time to time. Due to experience and depth I have to give this advantage to: Arkansas
At WR, Alabama returns Hanks and McCoy who combined for 10 catches for 203 yards in the spring game. Arkansas returns Crawford, Salters, Wade and Coleman who combined for 19 catches for 279 yards. Alabama receivers averaged 20.3 yds per catch and Arkansas receivers averaged 14.6 yards per catch. Arkansas has four back and Alabama has two. This is a tough call but I have to give the advantage to: Even
At RB, without a lot of deliberation, Alabama returns Grant, Upchurch, Johns and Coffee who combined for 1,815 yards rushing last season. Arkansas has Michael Smith and Brandon Barnett back who combined for 443 yards last season. The advantage has to go to: Alabama
Along the Defensive Line, Alabama returns one DE, Deaderick and their NG, Washington. For Arkansas, they return both DE's, Sheppard and Davis as well Antwain Robinson. They also return DT Ernest Mitchell. This advantage definitely goes to: Arkansas
At Linebacker Alabama returns starters Ezekial Knight and Rolando McClain. At Arkansas they return Elston Forte, who didn't have the best of spring practices and Freddie Fairchild whose status is uncertain due to some legal issues that are pending. Alabama has players who will step up and Arkansas has that potential as well. But based only on returning starters, the advantage here has to go to: Alabama
In the Secondary, Alabama loses half of their starting rotation. They return Johnson at FS and Jackson at RCB. Arkansas loses their entire starting secondary but according to the Arkansas coaching staff, they have found answers and are very happy with what they from their secondary. Regardless, they lost their entire secondary. Maybe this group will be better than those of the past, but we have yet to see that in a game. The advantage here absolutely has to go to: Alabama
As for kicking, Alabama has Tiffin back as a place kicker and Fitzgerald back as a punter, Arkansas has Tejada back at place kicking and Davis back as a punter. Tejada made 73.9% of his FG's last year. Tiffin made 73.5%. I have to give the advantage to: Even
How close will this game be? Well, I have four areas in favor of Arkansas, four in favor of Alabama and two areas that I see as being even. Like I said, a "barn-burner" in Fayetteville again.
If Alabama wins, they will most likely be 4-0 headed into their game with Georgia the next week.
If Arkansas wins, they will most likely be welcoming Florida into Fayetteville two weeks later being 4-0 (yes, I expect Arkansas to beat Texas in Austin.....mark it down).
So how important is this game? Its outcome may well determine how most of the remainder of the season goes for each team. Are you ready for some football?
That's just my take, from outside the boundaries.
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4 months ago
Good article. Last year was the first time Bama beat Arkansas and didnt go for at least 8 wins in over a decade. As much as you want to knock JPW, his past two years against Arkansas, he has been awesome. In 2 starts against the Hogs, Wilson is 40-65 for 570 yds, 7 TDs, and 2 Ints. Thats nothing easy to do. With Arkansas having a brand new secondary and Wilson coming into his own (his completions numbers are on the way up with McElwain), there is no limit to what he can do this year with Terry Grant at full health again.
Also, you cant really knock his comp % too hard. 3 yrs ago he was a back up freshmen, so those dont count. He got along much better with Shula than Applewhite as far as a QB coach, and McElwain is another guy he is going to listen to.
Cant wait for this game, my first trip to Fayetteville.
4 months ago
JPW did torch Arkansas' secondary the last 2 yrs. However, a lot of that was due to Reggie Herring's press man defense. If the hogs didn't get a good rush on the QB, my 10 yr old could complete passes on them. This year, with Willy Robinson's pro approach and zone blitzes, a more sophisticated attack will pose more problems for JPW. He's still a good QB though.
GHG - Pokyswine
4 months ago
Bama will get beat at Arkansas this year. Why you ask? Arkansas has the better coach.
from 4 months ago
Thats laughable. Just down right laughable. At least Saban finished the season.
from 4 months ago
You want to bet?? You are clueless. Coach Saban has a national title and near as i can tell Petrino has ZERO... am I right? ZERO? Your comments are wishful thinking and anyone that knwos anyhting about colege football knows the first year is tough. New system for both offense and defense. The one thing Arkansas fans have in common with dreamers is they dream. Reality has nothing to do with their thinking. If you want to bet on this game email just comment back and we can have our bet.
4 months ago
good article. should be a great early test for both teams.
4 months ago
Nic, you write out of allegiance to your school , which makes you biased in your opinion and negative towards anyone else, especially if they happen to be in the SEC. If you plan to be any kind of a writer, seperate yourself from your personal feelings and speak the truth. Alabama has a good program, a storied program rich in history and tradition. I played football in college my first two years at a school that modeled its football program after that of Bear Bryant....so I know and appreciate a thing or two about Alabama football. Right now you detract from your credibility by your obviosuly biased opinions that reflect in your comments. Statements as you made on my article such as "at least Saban finished the season" after having commented previously that it was a good article, just smacks of sour grapes and I am certain that is not how you want to come off. Good for you that you are getting your degree and going to a fine school like the University of Alabama, but if you are writing for any reason other than to just have a laugh, I suggest you re-examine your approach.
Good luck,
John
from 4 months ago
John, thanks for the "advice," but you know an email or profile post would have been better. Anywho, the who thing about Saban and Petrino is not a biased opinion, its blatent fact. Petrino left the Falcons mid-season while Saban finished the season before making any moves.
Also, you act like you know me based off of two comments on one story, probably without reading any articles of mine or looking further into anything. To come out and say that I cant be unbiased is your own opinion made from very little if any evidence. You have no proof that I am negative towards every other school. The first comment isnt bias, its proven fact off of what JPW has done on the field against the Hogs.
4 months ago
Good article. However, some of your info is outdated and also does not take into account incoming freshman.
Ex. Zeke Knight has not practiced all spring and will in all likelihood get a medical hardship scholarship. McClain is Alabama's only experienced returning linebacker. This area could be a major weakness for Alabama, not an edge.
What about special teams. Arkansas lost Felix Jones' spectacular return abilities. Javier Arenas was the second best return man in the SEC last year, in 2009 he will #1 and could make a game breaking play.
Alabama has the best incoming freshman class in the nation, but it is always hard to know what impact freshman may have on a team. Nonetheless, you can be sure Julio Jones will start from day one at WR. The kid has major skills and Alabama will probably have the edge at WR.
Thanks for the article. Enjoyed the read.
4 months ago
Good stuff John. You are right that the Bama v. Ark. Game has always been close, and has usually vaulted the winner on to a great season.
A few things to factor in: 1) no McFadden for Arkansas (not to mention no Felix Jones), so with the RB position virtually untested, Bama may be able to keep C.Dick in check, if not Arkansas will torch Bama's secondary; 2) Arkansas has home field this year, which may help to balance with the loss of Jones & McFadden; 3) Alabama has a young, though very talented WR group which I believe is going to surprise everyone, factor that in with no returning starters at DB for Arkansas you have to give Bama the edge; however 4) Arkansas' d-line, if they get any pressure on Wilson, will cause him to make mistakes with the young WRs...only problem is that Bama may have one of the best o-lines in the entire nation - so like you said, it may be "barn-burner"
My very, very ealry prediction is: close game...for a while - Bama pulls away and wins 42-29
*Look for my predictions of all SEC games as the season gets closer
4 months ago
LOL arkansas is going to beat the real UT AND Alabama?! yeah right. arky is will get beat down hard by both.
from 4 months ago
Beef, you do know that we've beat UT 2 out of last 3 times we've played them, dont you? Those 2 times were with teams that had comparable talent to what we have this year. Save a last minute Matt Jones freak fumble and we would've went for the trifecta. One of the 2 times was @ Texas. So dont think this team will be scared to play in front of the Shorthorn fans. We may not beat Texas, but it is no way going to be a blowout. The one thing you have going for you is the experience of McCoy. Until someone steps up to fill Sweed's shoes...you should hold your tongue before anouncing beatdowns over other teams
Bama v. Arkansas is always a close game and like the writer of this article, I fully expect it to be another close game. I think Sabin is 1-2 years away from getting Bama to where there fans want the team to be. When this freshman class becomes juniors, watch out. Until then, I hardly think that they will beat down anyone. I think that the two teams are evenly matched and Arkansas wins by 3 (because of a Tiffin missed field goal at the end of regulation :)
from 4 months ago
"I hardly think that they will beat down anyone."
Bama-41, 2007 SEC East Champs-17. Thats a beat down. As for Tiffin, his accuracy from farther away is much better than close up, plus he now has two years of SEC play under his belt as opposed to his first SEC game and first SEC road game. Not to mention he erased those demons last year by putting away that FG with four mintues left which was the only reason Bama won instead of forced OT in T-town last season.
And you may want to take your advice about Saban and apply it to Petrino. Ark is a good year or two away from contending again. You dont lose your first round tandem and best reciever and just come back and run through the league. That doesnt happen in the SEC.
3 months ago
Jason,
thats nice to know about the last 2 out of three between arky and UT, but we are talking about this coming season, not in years past. arky just simply doesnt have the horses that they had last year. couple that with petrino starting a new offensive system, and it'll be a bad loss for them. and then again the week after.
oink
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