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US Open Golf Favorites 2014: Championship Odds for Top Players

Ben AlberstadtFeatured ColumnistJune 9, 2014

US Open Golf Favorites 2014: Championship Odds for Top Players

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    Matt Sullivan/Getty Images

    Fact: The 10 highest-ranked golfers in the Official World Golf Ranking are the top players in golf across the past 104 weeks. 

    With the first round of the 2014 U.S. Open at Pinehurst No. 2 mere days away, it's time to take a look at how the oddsmakers feel about the top 10's chances this week. 

    Not included in this list: Tiger Woods. The current No. 4 golfer in the world is still recovering from the back surgery he had three months ago and won't be teeing it up this week. Thus, his odds of winning aren't exactly good, as it's very difficult to win the U.S. Open from one's couch. 

    Read on for a breakdown of the top players' odds, as determined by averaging major sportsbooks' figures based on data from Oddschecker.

No. 11: Phil Mickelson

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    Stephen Dunn/Getty Images

    Odds: 16-1, implied win probability: 5.88 percent

    FedEx Cup Ranking: 87th

    Last 3 Finishes: T11 (FedEx St. Jude Classic), T49 (the Memorial), Cut (the Players)

    Breakdown: It's no secret that Phil Mickelson hasn't been at his best this year. Still, he enters the U.S. Open as the third-most highly favored golfer among oddsmakers on the heels of a tie for 11th at the FedEx St. Jude Classic. Six career second-place finishes at the USGA's annual contest certainly boost one's odds.

World No. 10: Jordan Spieth

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    Sam Greenwood/Getty Images

    Odds: 25-1, implied win probability: 3.85 percent

    FedEx Cup Ranking: 5th

    Last 3 Finishes: T19 (the Memorial), T14 (Crowne Plaza Invitational), T37 (Byron Nelson Championship)

    Breakdown: After a strong showing at the the Masters (T2) and solid play lately, Jordan Spieth enters the U.S. Open as the eighth-most highly favored golfer. He fired rounds of 77, 76 to miss the cut at the U.S. Open last year.

World No. 9: Justin Rose

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    Matt Sullivan/Getty Images

    Odds: 28-1, implied win probability: 3.45 percent

    FedEx Cup Ranking: 9th

    Last 3 Finishes: Cut (the Memorial), 25th (BMW PGA Championship), 4th (the Players)

    Breakdown: Last year's U.S. Open winner, Justin Rose missed the cut in his last appearance on the PGA Tour. However, he finished inside the top 10 in his three tour starts prior to the Memorial and gets some love from the oddsmakers for his consistency and status as the 2013 champ.

World No. 8: Sergio Garcia

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    David Cannon/Getty Images

    Odds: 33-1, implied win probability: 2.94 percent

    FedEx Cup Ranking: 33rd

    Last 3 Finishes: WD (BMW PGA Championship), 38th (Open de Espana), 3rd (the Players) 

    Breakdown: Sergio Garcia withdrew from the BMW PGA Championship with injury but looked good at the Players Championship and has had a solid year on the PGA Tour. He hasn't impressed in his last two U.S. Opens (T45, T38).

World No. 7: Jason Day

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    Andy Lyons/Getty Images

    Odds: 33-1, implied win probability: 2.94 percent

    FedEx Cup Ranking: 34th

    Last 3 Finishes: T37 (the Memorial), T20 (the Masters), 1st (WGC-Accenture Match Play Championship)

    Breakdown: A thumb injury has plagued Jason Day this year. He missed nearly two months after the Masters and a considerable amount of time prior to that tournament due to the ailment. It's difficult to feel that he'll be rust-free and up to the task at golf's sternest test this week.

World No. 6: Rory McIlroy

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    Andy Lyons/Getty Images

    Odds: 10-1, implied win probability: 9.09 percent

    FedEx Cup Ranking: 36th

    Last 3 Finishes: T15 (the Memorial), 1st (BMW PGA Championship), T6 (the Players)

    Breakdown: Rory McIlroy is the consensus U.S. Open favorite this year. The 2011 U.S. Open champion enters the season's second major on the heels of three solid starts. His aptitude, past U.S. Open performances and recent form have him rightfully positioned as the oddsmakers' No. 1.

World No. 5: Matt Kuchar

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    Matt Sullivan/Getty Images

    Odds: 25-1, implied win probability: 3.85 percent

    FedEx Cup Ranking: 3rd

    Last 3 Finishes: T15 (the Memorial), Cut (Crowne Plaza Invitational), T7 (Byron Nelson Championship)

    Breakdown: Matt Kuchar has nine top-10 finishes this season. He tied for 28th at the U.S. Open last year and has been impressive on tour this season. He's the fifth-highest-favored player entering the season's second major.

World No. 3: Bubba Watson

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    Matt Sullivan/Getty Images

    Odds: 18-1, implied win probability: 5.26 percent

    FedEx Cup Ranking: 2nd

    Last 3 Finishes: 3rd (the Memorial), T48 (the Players), 1st (the Masters)

    Breakdown: Bubba Watson has followed up his win at the Masters respectably. However, his last three starts at the U.S. Open haven't given any indication he's ready to win the thing (T32, Cut, T63). Thus, even with his stellar season, the oddsmakers have him positioned behind McIlroy, Scott and Mickelson.

World No. 2: Henrik Stenson

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    Mark Runnacles/Getty Images

    Odds: 28-1, implied win probability: 3.45 percent

    FedEx Cup Ranking: 115th

    Last 3 Finishes: 5th (Nordea Masters), 7th (BMW PGA Championship), 34th (the Players)

    Breakdown: Henrik Stenson played reasonably well at the Players and looked good in two events overseas. He tied for 21st at the U.S. Open at Merion last year, and his best showing in the event is a ninth-place finish in 2009.

World No. 1: Adam Scott

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    Sam Greenwood/Getty Images

    Odds: 12-1, implied win probability: 7.69 percent

    FedEx Cup Ranking: 14th

    Last 3 Finishes: T4 (the Memorial), 1st (Crowne Plaza Invitational), T38 (the Players)

    Breakdown: World No. 1 Adam Scott sits behind Rory McIlroy in the list of favorite at most sportsbooks. His two starts since assuming the top position in the OWGR and announcing his marriage have been excellent. He wasn't overwhelming at Merion last year, finishing tied for 45th, and that's likely why he's slotted behind McIlroy.

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