Twins April Notes II

I wanted to spend some time briefly looking at each person on the Twins active roster, first we’ll start with the pitchers.  Remember, take all these numbers with a grain of salt, April tends to favor pitchers and there’s a sample size question to worry about as well.  

Scott Baker, RHSP

Baker is finally proving to all the doubters that he’s not a “quad-A” player.  His expected fielding independent ERA (xFIP) is a very good 3.05 which is actually better than his real ERA of 4.50.  Baker’s number might even improve a bit, right now his line drive percentage (LD%) is a very high 28%.  This should settle down to somewhere near 20% as the season progresses.

Brian Bass RHRP

The mop up guy in the bullpen, Bass has been a placeholder on the roster.  However, he has done very well in his role with a 4.46 xFIP.  By his performance so far, Bass has not given the Twins any reason to take him off the team.  For Bass, this must be seen as a tremendous victory.

Nick Blackburn RHSP

Blackburn has been the big surprise of the Twins rotation this year, presently he’s 2-1 with a 3.52 ERA.  This is a far cry from his 7+ ERA last year.  He’s done this by lowering his LD% while increasing his ground ball percentage (GB%).  This has lowered his slugging average allowed (SLGA) and subsequently lowered his WHIP significantly from last year.  Unfortunately Blackburndoesn’t look to continue his incredible numbers, so far he has allowed an un-sustainably low number of home runs.  Home runs are a product of fly balls and eventually Blackburn is going to see more balls find their way over the fence.

Boof Bonser RHSP

He’s probably the best 2-4 pitcher in the majors.  His 3.75 ERA is going to regress to the mean however.  Boof is enjoying a high defensive efficiency (DER, the percentage of balls in play turned into outs) and very few of the fly balls he has given up so far have flown over fences for home runs.  Expect his ERA to settle in the mid-4 range.

Jesse Crain RHRP

Crain is coming off a major injury and has seen limited playing time over the last two years.  There simply isn’t enough data to make any clear conclusions about Crain effectiveness but he has looked fair to good so far this year.  Crain probably has plenty left in the tank at age 26 and he could still see useful service as a middle reliever.

Matt Guerrier RHRP

It was looking like Matt Guerrier was going to create a name for himself as one of the great setup men in baseball.  So far this year he hasn’t looked quite as impressive.  A 4.40 ERA over 11 games is exactly where other more esoteric stats suggest he should be.  Still, he’s a solid relief pitcher and there’s still hope he’ll find the magic which led him to a 2.35 ERA in 73 games last year.

Livan Hernandez RHSP

It’s just a matter of time before Hernandez pumpkinizes.  His SLGA is .490, which is very close to what it was last year when he posted a 11-11 record with a 4.93 ERA.  His xFIP has been rising for the last three years.  His ERA this year is already creeping up; it’s at 5.05 right now.  Unfortunately, there’s not enough of a case yet, based on statistics, for the Twins to abandon Livan.

Bobby Korecky RHRP

Korecky was called up from AAA when Liriano was sent down and Korecky will be sent back down as soon as Kevin Slowey gets activated off the DL.  Korecky looked good in the two games he got to pitch.  He should be able to scratch a living in the majors as a middle reliever.  But, at 28 years old he doesn’t have long term prospects.

Francisco Liriano LHSP

Liriano has been dreadful so far this year.  In 2006 he was the next big thing, now it’s looking like he might never regain the form from his rookie year.  A 7.00 xFIP is enough proof to me that he needs at least a year in the minors to relearn how to get hitters out.

Joe Nathan RHRP

Nathan has probably been the best closer in baseball over the last four years and he continues to be excellent this year.  His 0.82 ERA this year is going to regress a little bit but he still looks to be one of the elite closers in baseball.  However, we’re starting to see some cracks in Nathan’s numbers which might point to future struggles in coming years.  He’s giving up more home runs (raw and as a percentage of balls hit into play) and he’s getting fewer strikeouts per nine innings (K/G) than he was two years ago.

Pat Neshek RHRP

With an xFIP of 2.92 and a 13 to 3strikeout to walk ratio in 12 innings, Neshek is looking to repeat his near All-Star performance from last year.

Dennys Reyes LHRP

The Twins LOOGY (Lefty-One-Out-Guy) has some great numbers right now, a 0.00 ERA with a 0.67 WHIP in 9 IP so far this year.  Expect to see some (a lot) regression, he’s enjoying an unsustainable .826 DER and has a LD% of 22.7.  If continued to be used as a LOOGY he should be alright.

Juan Rincon RHRP

Rincon has had consistently declining numbers in the previous four seasons.  With only 9 IP to judge him this year it’s impossible to say if he’s arrested the fall, but his numbers thus far are matching his poor numbers last year.  If the Twins were to somehow get rid of Rincon it wouldn’t bother me one bit.

Kevin Slowey RHSP

Slowey should be rejoining the Twins starting rotation soon after a short stint on the DL.  He projects to be an above average starter this year.  Hopefully the injury doesn’t nag him too much this year.