In case you have been living under a rock that doesn't get ESPN, former member of the Big Three, Barry Zito, has gone from Opening Day starter to the Giants bullpen. Until the Mets robbed Johan Santana from the Twins last offseason, Zito had the biggest contract ever for a pitcher - but as one "honor" gets stripped from him, another appears imminent, as he now looks like he might become the biggest free agent bust ever (Mike Hampton, look out for your crown).
We knew he was in decline when he signed with SF, and we knew that Sabean was yet another victim of the voodoo magic of Scott Boras that seemingly makes any General Manager hand him a blank check - but considering his move from the AL to one of the biggest pitcher's parks in the NL and his incredible durability, I thought they would at least get above-average innings for most of the deal.
Oops.
Even though free agent pitchers tend to disappoint at the same rate as flashy NFL wide receivers, I'm still dumbfounded by this. My friend Nick joked it's as if the Monstars stole his talent in order to prepare for a baseball sequel to Space Jam. San Francisco Chronicle Writer Gwen Knapp said "Zito is fast becoming the pitcher's answer to Chuck Knoblauch and Steve Sax," reflecting a similar sentiment.
It isn't uncommon for a player to just spontaneously implode for no apparent reason; in addition to the aforementioned Knoblauch and Sax, Steve Blass, Rick Ankiel, Mackey Sasser, and Mark Wohlers all were victims. But the fact is, Zito's decline hasn't been sudden - in fact, it's as if, much like Miguel Tejada, he's been lying about his age.
No, I'm not about to trap Zito into an interview and reveal a correct birth certificate for him, but he is showing some of the classic signs of decline due to age - his HR/9 is up compared to his prime and his strikeouts and velocity are down. Pitchers tend to settle into a prime, pitch slightly below that prime for a while, and eventually collapse. Zito seems to have done all those things, but it seems odd that it's before 30, especially considering he has never been injured in his career. The only other example of a guy who had a similar pattern (off the top of my head) was
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Zito doesn't have those obvious reasons for decline, meaning his problems might be more subtle - his issues are probably mental or mechanical. The fact that it might simply be lack of confidence is possible, but if that was the case, the Giants sending Zito to the pen probably just made the problem worse and it might take a change of scenery to help him get it back. Mechanics are also possible, as his declining command and velocity in his physical prime seem to indicate a delivery issue.
And if Zito needs a change of scenery and a pitching coach that can fix his mechanics - there is a team that seems like the ideal fit. That team would be the New York Mets.
It sounds insane at first, but when you break it down, it makes plenty of sense for both Barry and the Mets. First of all, Zito would be reunited with Rick Peterson, his pitching coach during his best years in Oakland. I'm not about to call Peterson a miracle worker, and it's not like he can fix any pitcher in 10 minutes, but he has worked well with two other extreme flyball pitchers like Zito - John Maine (who wasn't even successful in AAA before being traded to the Mets) and Oliver Perez (who looked lost 2 years after a stellar 2004).
The Mets also need a guy like Zito because their rotation is currently banged up with Pedro and El Duque turning into a Queens equivalent of Mark Prior and Kerry Wood. The durability problems of the rotation killed the Mets in the 2006 playoffs when Pedro, El Duque and Trachsel all went down in the final month, and also killed the Mets in 2007 when the lack of healthy starters that could go deep into games resulted in a bullpen implosion that became a team implosion. Willie Randolph learned under Joe Torre, and Mets fans will tell you it reflects in his bullpen usage - so the front office needs to put together a rotation that can eat innings. Even in Zito's current form, he can still take the ball every 5th day - and if recent history has proved anything, that means a lot.
The Mets aren't really in position to add a guy with the farm depleted from the Santana trade, but that won't matter when it comes to Zito. The Giants move of Zito to the bullpen less than a month into the season is a sign of desperation - if they believed in their investment at all, they would let him pitch his way out of it. With a team that simply doesn't have enough talent to get anywhere, Sabean would probably be content with dumping half of Zito's salary and picking up some midlevel prospects. Don't get me wrong - the Mets would be taking on over $50 million dollars over six years, but they are in a big enough market to handle the risk. If Zito only becomes a backend starter, that's still decent value considering the massive inflation plaguing free agency - and if he doesn't, he was still a better investment then Mo Vaughn, at least.
Omar Minaya has shown the willingness to take risks and roll the dice throughout his tenure with the Mets, and the results have been solid so far. Mr. Minaya, as a Mets fan who sees the season headed down the same road as the last two, I hope you take yet another and trade for Barry Zito.
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4 months ago
Never gonna happen, but good wishful thinking...
from 4 months ago
Thanks for the feedback, Dave. Yeah, it's a bit of a stretch, at least at this point, but I wouldn't be surprised if around the trade deadline it seems to make more sense for both teams.
4 months ago
No GM in their right mind would EVER take Barry Zito right now. This is an outrageous theory.
Especially not one who just took on he biggest contract in the MLB for a pitcher for. He certainly doesn't want the second highest either.
Minaya takes risks when there is an obvious upside i.e. owning the most dominant pitcher for the past 3 years. The only risk there is that Santana's numbers start to slide (from the top). He isn't going to take a $100 million dollar 'risk' on someone who is obviously defunct.
Zito is done. Period.
from 4 months ago
ChatterBalks, I'm not as sure of that as you are. Although he has been in decline, he did look more like his old self in the second half of last year (4.11 ERA, HR's, K's and BB's at roughly the same rate as 2003-2006). I just find it a bit crazy that we are perfectly willing to dismiss Sabathia's first month as an abberation, when with Zito it's a sign that he's definetly finished.
Much like the Giants did when they put him in the pen, "Zito is done" seems like an overreaction. And if Zito comes with his full contract then yes, it is stupid to take him- but if he is traded, the Giants are almost certainly going to eat a huge part of the money.
P.S: ChatterBalks does have a great satirical article on Barry Zito being posted on Craigslist - http://bleacherreport.com/articles/20369-Breaking-News-San-Francisco-Giants-Post-Barry-Zito-on-Craigslist-290408. Go read it if you haven't.
4 months ago
Good analysis of the pitching decline.
Do you think San Francisco would take Carlos Delgado for Zito? They would save money in the long run since Delgado is in the last year of his contract. They could probably even pawn him off on somebody else.
The Mets will be facing potential holes in their rotation in 2009 with Perez, Duque, and Pedro all being fee agents (and the last two possibly retiring), so it's not as crazy as it sounds.
4 months ago
I think you're being overly generous to Zito. His velocity decrease isn't sudden and it's not mechanical. I think I'll write a response later but basically, no GM is going to take Zito unless the Giants eat 80%+ of his contract. That's not going to happen so he isn't going anywhere.
Then again, the Pirates did take Matt Morris so stupidity does continue to abound. But I doubt any GM in the game right now is dumb enough to take Barry.
4 months ago
Seeing what has happened to Zito reminds me of Ervin Santana. He had a huge year and then went into a big time decline. However, Santana seems to have found his problem (mechanical) but Zito continued to struggle. Maybe a stint in the bullpen is what he needs for motivation or maybe just rest.
Even John Smoltz made a stint in the bullpen and came back with a vengeance the last couple of years. Who knows what this move will do to Zito, only time will tell. One thing is for sure, as bad as he has pitched..the offense could arguably have been worse.
4 months ago
The Giants would have to take Carlos Delgado, Luis Castillo and maybe some others off the Mets' hands in addition to eating a significant portion of Zito's contract
JF
4 months ago
I've been saying this since Peterson left for the Mets. Zito, while one of my favorites, is a head case and nobody deals with that better than Peterson.
4 months ago
A couple of you guys mentioned taking Delgado off the Mets hands - which seems unlikely considering they need to see what they can get out of their young 1B in San Francisco. But then again, I've never seen proof that logic exists in Brian Sabean's world, so I wouldn't rule it out.
4 months ago
Yes, he can. You guys should definitely take him :).
4 months ago
I agree that Peterson is a good coach and that Zito has the potential to be an asset; my misgivings are fiscal ones. I've seen Zito pitch--MAYBE he can be a help to a team in coming years, but he might also be just finished. If that's the case, I don't think the Mets could afford his contract AND the loss of prospects that such a trade might involve. The Metropolitans are wealthy, but they aren't the Yankees. They can't just buy their way into the postseason (although they can try; Beltran and Santana, I'm looking at you two). It would depend on how much smaller the Giants (and Zito, although I don't think he's in a good bargaining position) would be willing to eat and how much the Mets would have to shell out.
Also, trading Delgado to the Giants makes no sense for either side. The Giants don't need a washed-up, relatively old first basemen and who would play first back in NYC? Maybe they should ask the Marlins very nicely if they can have Mike Jacobs back.
from 4 months ago
Yeah, the financial part of this risk is huge. At his full salary, I would definetly not take the shot. At half of it - I would roll the dice, especially with only Santana and Maine still under contract for next year.
And asking the Marlins nicely worked for Mike Piazza - why not for Jacobs too? ;)
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