Biedrins vs. Stoudemire by the Numbers: Warriors-Suns Trade

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Biedrins vs. Stoudemire by the Numbers: Warriors-Suns Trade
(Photo by Stephen Dunn/Getty Images)

 

Scoring

Scoring represents the greatest difference between Stoudemire and Beidrins. Last year Biedrins scored 11.9 a games in 30.0 minutes, compared to 21.4 in 36.8 minutes from Amare. Per 48 minutes, Amare outscores Biedrins 27.9 to 19.0. Amare’s production at center, which he would play in Golden State, was even greater at 29.8 per 48.

Without Baron Davis distributing and Monta creating, Beidrins’ true shooting percentage dropped from .637  in '07-'08 to .585 last year. The drop in efficiency came not only from losing the two star guards, but also from being asked to do more as his usage percentage increased 16 percent from 14.4 to 16.7. In '08-'09, 64 percent of his close shot attempts were assisted, compared to 76 percent in '07-'08.

It’s troubling that Biedrins’ scoring efficiency decreases greatly when asked to do more on his own. This is a result of having little in the way of offensive moves and relying heavily on putbacks and transition baskets. I doubt he will develop much more offensively as he has already been in the league for five years.

Amare’s TS percentage in 2008-09 was a solid .617. Interestingly, Amare’s efficiency dropped from .657 in '07-'08 when he had a usage percentage of 28.2 to .617 when he had a lower usage percentage of 24.2. This drop was likely due to dealing with injuries and the Terry Porter debacle.

Amare’s '07-'08 season is a better predictor for future success because he was playing center in a truly run n' gun system that year. Comparing Amare’s '07-'08 scoring per 48 minutes as a center to Biedrins' '08-'09 scoring, gives Amare a much greater advantage of 37.5 to 19.0.

The reason Amare is able to score more efficiently and twice as often is that he possesses better post moves and a jump shot. 55 percent of his attempts were jump shots compared to just 16 percent from Beidrins in '08-'09. Beidrins made only 15 percent of hose jumpers, by the way. A jump shooting center can not only score more frequently but create more space for drives, and would hopefully convince Nelson that Maggette should never play as a four.

Amare’s extremely efficient scoring would hopefully take away shots from Stephen Jackson and others, making the team one of the top offensive teams in the league. While no one on the Warriors can run pick n' roll and pass like Nash, the Warriors would have enough offensive firepower to get Amare a lot of good shots. I think it would be realistic to expect him to score about 24 a game with a TS percentage around .63.

Last year, Biedrins took up 10 possessions a game. If Amare took 20 possessions a game, and the Warriors guards with a TS percentage of .53 took 10 less possessions, the Warriors would have raised their offensive rating by 2.9. Using Pythagorean Win Theorem, this would have given the Warriors 7.5 more wins last year. The Warriors may lose some guard scoring efficiency by losing Belinelli and Curry, the benefits of increased efficiency and usage at the center position far outweighs this.



Defense


Neither Biedrins nor Amare are known as great defenders and neither have played on teams known for defense.

The center playing against Amare averaged 18.1 points/48 compared to 24.7 from Beidrins. In Beidrins’ defense, he often had to leave his man to help, but Amare played on a defense just as bad. Biedrins has the advantage in blocked shots with 2.4 per 48 minutes compared to 1.6 from Amare as a center.

In '08-'09 Amare had a lower defensive rating of 111, compared to 107 for Beidrins; although Amare’s career average is a much better 104. Part of that may have to do with new coaching or playing the four more, but I think it likely just has to do with motivation. The stats seem to suggest Amare is a slightly better defender and I believe if Stephen Jackson could get Amare motivated, he could be a significant defensive improvement over Biedrins.



Rebounding

Rebounding is the one area where Beidrins appears superior.

Biedrins pulled down 11.2 boards per game last year, compared to 8.0 for Amare. However, I do not think their rebounding difference is as great as those numbers suggest. Beidrins played a very significant chunk of his minutes with Stephen Jackson, Brendan Wright, or Corey Maggette at the four.

Amare on the other hand, played a large amount of minutes at the four opposite Shaq. It is easy to see why Beidrins had more boards opportunities for rebounds than Amare. Even though Biedrins is still the better rebounder, Amare would be playing opposite a great rebounder in Anthony Randolph mitigating the differences.

 

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