SEC Football-Arkansas-What Will Be Expected of Petrino In His First Year?

As spring football winds down, the question on many Arkansas fans minds is, "what can we really expect the first year of the Bobby Petrino era?"

There is much debate about this. From every favorite sports bar to every corner coffee shop to every gas station to every Razorback web site, everyone debates what are reasonable expectations. If you live outside the confines of the borders of Arkansas or do not follow their football program, you might think that this is a silly question. Trust me, this is a dead serious question.

The folks in Arkansas, or those that make up their extended fan base, are already pondering the potential outcome of the 2008 season. Some say they will be happy with a 5-7 regular season record. Others say, 6-6 would be acceptable in this first year. Others have more elevated expectations and say 7-5, 8-4 or 9-3 is very possible.

I think if you ask Bobby Petrino or his staff, he would tell you that he thinks they have the opportunity to win more this year than anyone may think possible. Would you want a coach who believed otherwise? Petrino's staff has stated as much by indicating that they will accept nothing less than excellence from every single player at every single position on the entire team. For those of you who have never competed in any sport above the high school level, this is a fairly common theme that is projected by every coaching staff at the college level in any sport. If you play at all in college, in any sport, you are expected to be an athlete that is far above average in athletic ability and the coaches that you encounter will be driven to bring out the very best in you. If you weren't at the very least a pretty great athlete, you wouldn't even be at the college level to begin with. What this means to me, as it relates to this article, is that Arkansas has some pretty good athletes on campus.  Under coached and under developed perhaps, but still great athletes. Petrino's staff is dedicated to developing them from what I have read and heard of their work outs this spring.

Evidence of this was found in the Arkansas spring game where passing was the norm, not the exception. Casey Dick, who previously had thrown the ball very little, had a completion percentage that was much higher than anything he had ever  previously achieved and passed for 404 yards. Arkansas? Passing for 404 yards? After they had developed a reputation for being a run dominant team over the past 10 years, this was like an epiphany for some of the fan base. For others, perhaps unbelievable and like a mirage or a fairytale.

So can Arkansas fans realistically expect a real, all out passing game when they have been promised a passing game repeatedly in the past by previous coaching staffs? The answer might be surprisingly.....no. If, as an Arkansas fan, you are expecting that Petrino will "air it out" every single down, you are going to be bitterly disappointed. Petrino's history suggests that he will lean towards a balanced attack. More like a 60-40 run to pass ratio. You can't believe this? You better. Petrino believes in a developed running game as well as a developed passing game and in teaching QB's to read defenses, check out of plays at the line of scrimmage and to actually know the right play to call at the line of scrimmage. They are taught to recognize and take advantage of what the defense gives them. Does this sound a lot like what an NFL level QB is supposed to accomplish? This is the way football was meant to be. This is a major diversion from what Arkansas QB's have been taught in the past.

Evidence of how Petrino improves quarterbacks in terms of passing can be found in the stats that reflect what occurred prior to his arrival at Louisville through his first year at Louisville. Prior to Petrino's arrival at Louisville, their QB had a completion percentage of 53.62%. At the end of Petrino's first season, his QB, that he inherited by the way, had a completion percentage of 61.34%. This represented an increase in completion percentage of 7.72%. Substantial by any measure. The second year with the same QB it jumped to 73.54%. This represented another increase of 12.2%. Will the same happen with Casey Dick in his first year under Petrino? That is still open for debate since the regular season hasn't arrived yet but be advised, Dick's completion percentages are substantially up in spring scrimmages. Can Petrino work his magic again? We will know after they meet Texas in the third game of their season. That will be their first big test of the 2008 season against a familiar nemesis, Will Muschamp, the Defensive Coordinator at Texas, formerly of Auburn. If Arkansas can manage to overcome Texas in Austin, it should be a red flag to the remaining teams on their schedule. Nick Saban, Urban Meyer, Tommy Tuberville and Les Miles will be watching this game with great interest.

Defensively, Petrino is perhaps not normally as strong as he is on the offensive side of the ball as his teams at Louisville went from 319.92 yds per game the year before he arrived to 428.62 after his first year. But, over his 4 years at Louisville his defenses averaged 345 yds in total defense so there was significant improvement after the first year of his reign.

Offensively, over the same four year period, his offenses averaged 496 yds per game. If you can average that in offense and 345 yds a game in total defense, you are going to win a lot of ball games.

So, back to the original question of what will be expected of Petrino in his first year? I think many Arkansas fans have been conditioned to expect less. Many have diminished expectations simply because they lost Darren McFadden, Felix Jones, Peyton Hillis and Marcus Monk. Many have diminished expectations because they remember how Casey Dick performed in a run dominated offense. Many have diminished expectations because they think that the defense will not be able to contain the powerful offense of the SEC.

Many are willing to give Bobby Petrino a "pass" in his first season and perhaps even for his first three seasons. They may be, but from what I have seen of Petrino in the past and what I hear coming out of the Arkansas staff this spring, they are not willing to give themselves a pass for even the first year. Arkansas fans do not realize, at this point, who they have hired. This is a man on a mission. His experience in Atlanta caused him to re-evaluate. He has come home to college football and is determined to reach the pinnacle of SEC football....which of course means, the pinnacle of college football.

What can be reasonably expected the first year? Games against Texas, Alabama and Florida are going to determine a great deal of that. If the razorbacks go into the their game with Auburn 5-0 or even with a close loss to Florida and be 4-1, the rest of the SEC better take notice. The Razorbacks will be on the stampede. Watch out for those tusks! Petrino isn't taking a pass this season, even though you may be willing to give it. I see the Hogs going 8-4. But should the oblong ball take bounces in their favor..........who can say how they may wind up? Petrino is one heck of a coach.

That is just my take......from outside the boundaries.