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There has been something that has been bothering me since I've started following football two preseasons ago.
Every year there is a team or two in people's preseason Top 25 whose basis for success is their performance from the year before and how many starters the team returns on offense. They do this while completely neglecting the fact that some of these teams return very few players—sometimes none—sometimes only one player on defense.
The so called "experts" still think the team will be good, and the team ends up being worse than predicted and never lives up to that year's expectations. (Cough, cough BYU and West Virginia last year.)
The only exceptions to this are for big-time recruiting teams like Ohio State and USC, who have top 10 recruiting classes every year.
After my recent encounter with a prediction like this I've had enough.
Athlonsports.com predicted the Cincinnati Bearcats football team to be number eighteen and to win the Big East. An unnamed writer for Bleacher report has them at 19.
The Bearcats return All Big East quarterback Tony Pike and preseason All American wide receiver Marty Gilyard, along with most of their offense.
The slight problem here is that they return one starter on defense.
I know everyone is entitled to their own opinions, and I respect every one of them. However, how can a team with one starter back on defense expect to be a top-25 team?
I highly doubt that a team can win the Big East with one defensive starter. It’s not like the bearcats lost star defensive tackle Terryl Byrd, two-time All Big East CB Mike Mickens, and eight other starters.
Oh wait, they did.
I think history will help prove my point better for those who are not convinced.
The Rutgers Football team in 2007 was the first team ever to have a 3,000 yard passer (Mike Teel), a 2,000 yard rusher (Ray Rice), and two 1,000 yard receivers (Kenny Britt and Tiquan Underwood) all in one season. They averaged 37 points a game.
So how come they only went 8-5 when they were ranked No. 12 preseason? Well, they had six returning starters from a top five defensive squad. The defense and whole team looked great on paper.





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