Felipe Dana/Associated Press
In one of the most perplexing lines of the last few years, surging veteran Matt Brown finds himself as the underdog to middling nonsensational nonprospect Erick Silva. While Brown opened as a modest underdog at plus136, he has found himself commonly sitting well over plus-200.
He has been with the UFC since 2008, and while he went 5-5 through the first 10 fights of his UFC career, he has since broken off six straight in shockingly lopsided fashion, with five of those wins coming by knockout.
That streak was enough to earn him a possible top contender's bout opposite Carlos Condit at UFC on Fox 9. Unfortunately, he was forced to withdraw from that bout with an injury and got a serious slap in the form of this fight for causing trouble with silly comments made on his podcast.
Erick Silva, meanwhile, owns a humble 4-3 UFC record but has been jammed down the throats of Brazilian fans (because Brazilians don't actually have a bunch of former champions and legends in the sport to root for...or something). He has done solid work lighting up the undersized and underwhelming but was dominated by Jon Fitch and knocked out by Dong-Hyun Kim.
Make no mistake: Both fighters are overrated. The difference is that Brown is overrated in the context of being an elite welterweight, while Silva being pitched as anything other than average is disingenuous.
Watch for Brown to take it to Silva early and potentially take him out shortly afterward.
Brown will go after Silva early with guns blazing. Silva, frankly, doesn't have what it takes to keep up with him in a striking battle and probably doesn't have the veteran savvy to exploit his one weakness (terrible submission defense). Look for Brown to score a knockout relatively early in the fight.
Did I mention that I like Brown in this fight? Bet on him to win (which is as lucrative as plus-200) and bet on him to win by knockout if you're feeling bold (plus-250).