Kragthorpe's Last Stand? 2009 Louisville Football Preview

(Photo by Al Messerschmidt/Getty Images)

The Louisville football program enters the 2009 season with a bunch of questions on the field, but the biggest question mark involves embattled head coach Steve Kragthorpe.

The 2009 season for Louisville is more about making a determination regarding Kragthorpe than strictly wins and losses. For that reason, 2009 could be Steve Kragthorpe's last stand, or it could be his finest moment.

As we roll into summer, we get closer and closer to the start of football season. The Louisville football program faces a challenging and pivotal season in 2009. With a tough schedule and unproven talent, Steve Kragthorpe must not only try to put a competitive team on the field, he must do so with his job status very much in jeopardy.

I am going to go through some scenarios in which I believe will determine whether or not Krags stays or is let go.

Let's take a look at the 2009 schedule:

9/05/09 vs. Indiana State
9/19/09 at Kentucky
9/26/09 at Utah
10/02/09 vs. Pittsburgh
10/10/09 vs. Southern Mississippi
10/17/09 at Connecticut
10/24/09 at Cincinnati
10/31/09 vs. Arkansas State
11/07/09 at West Virginia
11/14/09 vs. Syracuse
11/21/09 at South Florida
11/27/09 vs. Rutgers

Just looking at the schedule right now, I count two wins, six losses, and four TBD. The two wins are Indiana St. and Arkansas St., both schools I was not aware had football programs. The six losses are Utah, Pitt, Cincinnati, West Virginia, South Florida, and Rutgers. That leaves the four TBD games, and those are Kentucky, Southern Mississippi, Connecticut, and Syracuse.

To be clear, I am not saying those four games are toss ups and the teams are evenly matched. What I am saying is, at this point, those four teams do not appear to be strong enough to overwhelm Louisville like the games I have marked as losses. Here are the scenarios:

Three or Fewer Wins—If Krags goes 3-9, that will put him at a 14-22 in three years at Louisville and with that record he cannot be brought back for a fourth year. Looking at Louisville's team and schedule, three wins could be a stretch. That is quite sad for a program who did not go on probation and is only three years removed from winning the FedEx Orange Bowl. Therefore, three wins, or less, HE'S GONE.

Four Wins, Several Blowout Losses—Here's where it gets interesting. Looking at the schedule, four wins means Krags has to win at least two games against teams he should not beat. However, if he does that, but also gets completely blown out of the water in other games, I do not see how that could be viewed as adequate enough progress to retain him. Four wins with several blow outs, HE'S GONE.

Four Wins, Several Close Losses—

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