Back to the Future: Why F1 Will Survive a FOTA Exodus

(Photo by Mark Thompson/Getty Images)

With progress in talks between the FIA and FOTA stalling, and the two parties appearing increasingly at loggerheads over the governance of F1 and the 2010 regulations, the threat of a split between the two series is growing by the day.

History tells us that such a division would be hugely damaging for all parties. In biology it generally holds true that for any given environment, only one species can occupy a particular niche—that is, a role within that environment—at any one time. If two species try to occupy the same niche, one or the other will eventually go extinct.

Such appears to be the case with motorsports, too.

When the IRL split from CART in 1996, what resulted was an attempt by both parties to attract the same audience to two series that produced essentially the same racing product; it was no surprise, therefore, that something had to give, though despite the IRL essentially "winning" in the end it is nowhere near as strong as CART was before 1996.

Felipe Massa and Mark Webber, both prominent drivers in the world of F1, have already lent tentative support to the concept of a FOTA-led split from F1, and even world champion Lewis Hamilton has said that he would have no problem with following McLaren out of F1 if that was the route the Mercedes-backed team chose to take.

Clearly these drivers believe, along with the rest of those within FOTA who are calling for a split, that in the event of FOTA's championship and the FIA competing for dominion of the same niche, the FOTA teams would win out.

FOTA have a lot on their side. Ferrari, the most prestigious and historic of F1's teams, are the ringleaders of the organisation, and quite probably the reason that FOTA has managed to cause such a stir in an era where earlier manufacturer-led breakaway threats (such as the Grand Prix Manufacturers' Association) have never previously achieved anything.

FOTA also appear to have a semi-cohesive game plan for how to acquire a solid commercial foundation in the event of a breakaway.

It has been suggested several times in recent weeks that FOTA could use the structure of A1GP, an initially popular series whose profile has dwindled even in the face of considerable support from Ferrari themselves, in order to get their own series started.

A1GP has television deals in place and contracts with popular circuits such as Zandvoort in the Netherlands and Brands Hatch in the UK. By utilising these commercial deals, a FOTA-backed series could take shape in a matter of months—in time for the start of F1's 2010 season.

There is also the possibility of using the framework of another series to make FOTA's vision a reality. Renault's Flavio Briatore recently announced the formation of GP3, a series intended to run a rung below his popular GP2 series.

But, apart from its existence, no other details have been announced. Could "GP3" simply be a placeholder to set the wheels in motion for FOTA's own, considerably higher-profile ambitions?

And finally, one fact in FOTA's favour is that the FIA have no power to stop them. Under European competition law, the FIA is unable to refuse to sanction a rival series to F1, unless it is due to safety concerns—a point which Max Mosley has already conceded on several occasions.

You're currently logged into Facebook

Do you want to share your Bleacher Report activity on Facebook?