BABIP Numbers Speak for Themselves, Luck or Not

Nick  Tyson by Scribe Written on June 13, 2009
NEW YORK - JUNE 10:  David Wright #5 of the New York Mets bats  against the Philadelphia Phillies during their game on June 10, 2009 at Citi Field in the Flushing neighborhood of the Queens borough of New York City.  (Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images) (Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images)

There is a certain amount of luck in Major League Baseball, those aspects of the game that are really very much out of the players’ hands.

Some people believe that batting average per balls in play is one of such statistics. With that said, I will examine the top and bottom five batters in terms of their BABIP, recap how they got to where they are, point out the things that will bring them up or down to normal, and show you that luck has very little to do with it.

 

1. David Wright, New York Mets

Wright is the MLB leader in BABIP at .481, and there are several factors as to why. Looking at his statistics, almost everything looks similar, except that his home runs are significantly down (four through more than 50 games), and his strikeouts are up (on pace for more than 150).

This seems to be the opposite of what typically is seen in the game: a player’s power increasing alongside his strikeouts.

The thing that Wright has been able to do this year that has made his BABIP soar, is adjust his swing so that he is producing more clean line drives as opposed to upper-cutting and hitting fly balls.

Although this hurts his power, it definitely is a positive and his power numbers should return later on this season.

 

2. Kevin Youkilis, Boston Red Sox

The only player even close to Wright in terms of BABIP, Youkilis’ mark is at .418. He does not have as many games played or plate appearances as most of these other players, and so you should expect this number to naturally come down as his appearances rise.

Youkilis’ ground ball percentage has actually decreased pretty significantly compared to his last two years, and unlike Wright, his power has increased (slugging .636 through June 13).

The only decline in Youkilis’ BABIP is one that will come naturally as he plays in more games. He is a phenomenal player who, with full playing time, is really coming into his own and developing into the dream player that Billy Beane tried to hard to draft.

 

3. Jason Bartlett, Tampa Bay Rays

If you are a fantasy owner with Bartlett on your team, he is definitely a guy to trade away while his value is soaring.

Bartlett has a BABIP of .418, and is hitting .373. These statistics are fantastic, but Bartlett is historically an inconsistent player, and everything points to him falling back to Earth.

His ground ball percentage has historically been very high, almost 50 percent, but this year it is down to 33 percent, and this is a big reason for his increased BABIP.

While it is good that he is hitting more line drives, as pitchers figure out his holes it is likely he will turn back into the ground ball hitter that he has been the past four years.

 

4. Justin Upton, Arizona Diamondbacks

Upton’s first season truly started out fantastic before pitchers began to figure him out and found his weaknesses. His 2009 start is great as well, indicated by his .388 BABIP.

Will it fall like 2008 did? The answer is probably not.

Upton is turning into the type of player fantasy owners always imagined him being. He is hitting with more power, more line drives, and his average has risen significantly.

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written on June 13, 2009 Stats

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