Who's on First? The Surprises of the First Month of Baseball

by Brandon Mitchell (Scribe)

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April 25, 2008

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MLB, Cleveland Indians, Florida Marlins, Ryan Howard, CC Sabathia, Cy Young Award, Rankings/List

Thousands of writers, pundits, and idiots on the street put forth their predictions for the Major League Baseball season before each season starts. 

Some are right, most are wrong.  Nobody, however, can fully predict everything that will happen.  Here are the top five surprises from the first month of the 2008 Major League Baseball season, a few predictions for what to look out for in May, and the first month awards.

5. Detroit TigersDetroit's extremely slow start surprised many in the baseball world.  When Dontrelle Willis went down thanks to a hyper-extended knee, many thought their season was over.  However the high-powered Tigers offense seems to have come to life and by the end of May they should be back on top.  They're only three games out now!

4. Ryan HowardI'm not many sure how many people would consider this a surprise, but the 2006 MVP is looking like a fish out of the water at the plate.  He has struck out 40% of the time he's been up, is batting a miserable .176, and has been held to just four home runs and nine RBI through the first month of the season.  Even though Howard is slowly sinking, the Phillies still have more home runs than any team in baseball—by five.

3. Florida MarlinsBefore the season began everyone thought it was going to be a two or three team race in the NL East.  Neither of those two or three teams were named the Florida Marlins.  The Marlins have shocked many, starting 13-9.  They've shown that they are a team to be reckoned with, even though they're payroll is about 1/30 of the Yankees.  The Marlins also have the 2nd most home runs in the Majors. 

2. Arizona DiamondbacksAlthough expected to do somewhat decently this season, the Diamondbacks are surprising those experts and pundits, starting the year a remarkable 16-6, leading the reigning NL Champion Rockies by six games in the NL West.  They seem to be clicking on all cylinders, fourth in the NL in batting average and first in the Majors in ERA. 

1. C.C. SabathiaLast year's AL Cy Young Winner has been everything but that for the Tribe this year.  With a 1-3 record and a 10.13 ERA, he has given up 22 earned runs in only 18.2 innings of work, including nine runs to Oakland and Detroit each.  The Tribe need to hope that Sabathia's last start, 11 K's, zero ER in six innings of work, is an indication of what will happen for the rest of the year.  If not, the Tribe is in some serious trouble. 

2008 April Awards:

AL Cy Young- Cliff Lee
NL Cy Young- Tim Lincecum

AL MVP- Manny Ramirez
NL MVP- Chase Utley

AL Rookie- Jacoby Ellsbury (best I could do)
NL Rookie- Johnny Cueto

Comments (14) Add a comment »

  1. If you said that the Indians would have a lefty pitcher up for Cy Young after April, how many would have said it was Cliff Lee. What am amazing start!

    C.C. will be fine, another disappointment has been Verlander. He also was struggling mightily until last start.

  2. How about the Giants not being in last place and only 3 games under .500? Surely that has got to be a surprise for everyone who expected them to be the worst team in the majors.

  3. surprise about the Giants yes, they have little talent, really it looks likes Lincecum and Cain are it. As for the Indians, Cliff Lee has kept them afloat while CC needs to get his act together.

  4. 1) The St. Louis Cardinals need to be put up here as far as surprises go. Everyone had them buried in the NL Central and they're right behind the Cubs for the divisional lead. Their pitching is overachieving right now but I don't think the eventual drop off will be that dramatic. They will be in the hunt in the end.

    2) Right now I would have to say the NL MVP would go to Chipper Jones. He has a higher batting average and he's playing on a team that still has all of its main hitters in the lineup (they don't have to pitch to him). Utley is definitely in the running but he's playing without Rollins or Victorino and Howard has been nonexistent. In other words, besides Burrell pitchers can afford to pitch around him.

    1. I'm totally lost by your stance that Chipper's case for MVP is made by the fact that everyone's healthy. NOT having everyone in the lineup further makes the case for Chase Utley. You're right, pitchers could pitch around Utley, but despite that, he's been more productive at the plate than Chipper Jones thus far. It's not by much, but he's been better.

    2. I agree with you that Chipper should be the MVP but your reasoning is crazy, Chipper's doing better becuase, he has better hitters in his lineup?

    3. The point is that everyone is in the lineup for the Braves but not playing particularly well (Teixeria comes to mind) and Chipper is STILL putting up those kinds of numbers. I love Utley (he's on one of my fantasy teams) but I personally believe that Chipper is slightly ahead in the race because his average is 57 points higher and still is only 3 HR's behind and right there in RBI's.

    4. I don't agree that Chipper has better hitters in his lineup. The Braves batters are just not playing very well and Chipper is the guy that is shining out from the rest of them. Everyone on the Braves is healthy and SHOULD be producing and they're not (at least not up to expectations). The Phillies had both Rollins and Victorino on the DL and Howard just keeps striking out.

  5. I don't think even you know or understand why you think Chipper is MVP. Your reasoning, and the roundabout way you're going about explaining it tells me you're confused.

    Chipper is leading in average, but Utley has a higher OPS.

  6. You sound like Joe Morgan talking about OPS. The WHOLE point of all this was Chipper (in my opinion) is leading the NL for MVP. With Teixeria struggling at the plate and Francoeur and McCann still trying to find their strides, the Braves would still be floundering in the NL East without Chipper.

  7. Ummm, Joe Morgan pretty much ignores OPS because it factors in OBP, which Morgan also ignores.

    How is McCann and Francouer "trying to find their stride"? He's playing at a very high level, an All-Star caliber level. So, that point is absurd. This is the most effective Frenchy has been at the plate since his rookie year. Seriously, do you just say things for the sake of saying them? Oh, I got it, what you like to do is form an opinion, and then create "stats", or fabricate things to back them up. Generally people do the research first and THEN form their opinion.

    And where in God's name do you think the Phillies would be without Utley? The more I look into this the more I realize how dumb you have to be to say what you've said. As much as Tex is struggling, Ryan Howard has struggled much more. Jimmy Rollins has missed half the season. And one more thing, 75% of the Phillies line-up is performing WELL, WELL, WELL, WELL, WELL below average. In fact the rest of this lineup is performing at a historically horrible level. But despite that, and despite the fact that the Braves pitching has been better, the Phillies are a mere half game behind Atlanta.

    Seriously, don't even bother responding, you clearly don't know what you're talking about. Unless of course you want to continue to look stupid.

  8. Thanks for trying to belittle opinions. Great attitude right there. Here is the last point I will make but of course I know you're DYING to get a hold of to destroy it.

    An MVP (in my view) is someone who puts up the numbers that Utley and Chipper are putting up but while their lineup is still intact as well as when their superstars go down. I in no way said Utley didn't contribute a HUGE part to the Phillies. All I said was that Chipper was SLIGHTLY ahead of Utley for MVP voting in my view. Maybe the way I was explaining didn't come out exactly right but that's the way I feel and apparently you think I was "making up stats" when the only stat I gave was factual (Chipper's batting average, HR, and RBI's).

    It's only the first month of the freakin' season and people ask for predictions and this is how they get treated. Wow.

    1. You claimed that Frenchy and McCann were "trying to find their stride". Based on what? That's where the implication of made up stats came from, because the only way you could say such a thing is to have conjured up some made up stats in your head. Otherwise you would not have said something so plainly wrong.

      If you've got two guys of similar stats and they play on teams with similar records, but one player is on a team where 75% of his teammates are performing at a VERY, VERY, VERY below average level, how can you argue that he doesn't possess more value?

      Without Utley the Phillies probably wouldn't average two runs a game right now.

  9. I actually had trouble picking between Utley and Chipper. This is why I chose Utley: I compared both at every level.

    Chase Utley leads in runs, doubles, home runs, RBI, total bases, OPS, and has 9 more extra-base hits than Chipper Jones.

    Chipper leads in hits, OBP, and average.

    Then if you look at the definition of MVP, you look at who has been most valuble to their team. Without Chase Utley, the Phillies would be no where near the top right now thanks to the injuries of Rollins and Victorino combined with the slump of most of their lineup, especially Howard. To me, this makes, so far, Chase Utley, the clear favorite.

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