Can Randy Moss Pass Jerry Rice As the Greatest Receiver Ever?

Jerry Rice is widely considered the greatest wide receiver to ever step onto a football field. He will undoubtedly be inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame in 2010, his first  year of eligibility.

I wont argue that Randy Moss' legacy could ever reach the heights of Rice's. What separates these two, most notably, is their playoff resume.

Rice's 11-catch, 215-yard performance in Super Bowl XXlll alone sets the two apart. He would go on to win three Super Bowls with the San Francisco 49ers, and appeared in a fourth with the Oakland Raiders.

Moss' image and legal problems will further set the two apart. He has walked off the field before a game's conclusion, fake-mooned the Green Bay Packers' crowd, and quit on the Oakland Raiders. He's had numerous off-the-field incidents as well, including bumping a traffic officer with his car.

Rice never had such problems. As a result, he is held in higher esteem.

What Moss has a chance of doing, though, is becoming the greatest regular-season wide receiver ever. That means being the career leader in receiving yards, receptions, and touchdowns. Rice holds all of those records as of now, and by a wide margin.

The First 11 Years

The New England wide receiver just finished his 11th year in the NFL at age 32. Rice finished his 11th season in 1995, at age 33. Let's compare:

Rice: 942 receptions; 15,123 yards; 146 touchdowns

Moss: 843 receptions; 13,201 yards; 135 touchdowns.

Advantage: Rice by 99 receptions; 1,922 yards; and 11 touchdowns.

Obviously, Moss is behind in every statical category—not dramatically, but by a decent amount.

Rice went on to play nine more seasons in the NFL (1996-2004). In those nine seasons he managed to rack up 607 receptions; 6,518 yards; and 51 touchdowns.

I believe Moss can catch and even pass Rice in perhaps all of these categories for several reasons.

He's playing with Tom Brady, he doesn't get hurt, and he has yet to show signs of a diminishing skill set.

Rice missed 14 games in 1997, and he had to suffer through a year with Jeff Garcia at quarterback before Garcia blossomed in the NFL.

The biggest question is, how much longer does Moss want to play. He probably has another three, four, or five years of top-notch football left in him.

The Odds

Passing Rice in receptions: Moss is 707 short. If he played nine more seasons, he would have to average 78.55 receptions/season.

Will he do it? I give him a 50 percent chance of doing so.

Prediction: 1,473 receptions for his career, leaving him 76 short of the record.  

Passing Rice in yards: Moss is 9,694 yards short. If he played nine more seasons, he would have to average 1,077 yards/season.

Will he do it? I give him a 60 percent chance because he's playing with Brady.

Prediction: 21,101 yards, leaving him 1,794 yards short of the record.

Passing Rice in touchdowns: Moss is 62 touchdowns short. If he played nine more seasons he would have to average 6.88 touchdowns/season.

Will he do it? I give him a 90 percent chance of doing so. Again, he's playing with Brady.

Prediction: 218 touchdowns, surpassing the record by 21.

As I've stated before, age is working against Moss as time goes on. How long will he continue to produce like a top-notch receiver?

Terrell Owens will turn 36 during the upcoming season, and most experts expect he has one or two 1,000-yard seasons left in him. If Moss can produce like that up to 38 years old, then he has a better chance than what I stated in my article of obtaining those prestigious records.

Regardless of what happens, though, both Rice and Moss stand head-and-shoulders above the competition as the greatest statistical wide receivers ever.