Randy Wells (Chicago Cubs): @ Reds, RHP, 24 percent owned
Stat Potential: Win, Strikeouts, ERA, WHIP
Risk Factor: Moderate
When I said in Thursday's "Spot D'jour" that Jeremy Guthrie is prone to bad first innings, I added that he's done a good job of patching things up, allowing him to pitch late into games.
That was not the case last night in Oakland, as Guthrie got lit up for six runs on seven hits and got yanked after two outs in the first. It was Guthrie's worst outing of the season by far, and only the second time he didn't pitch at least five innings (the first such occurrence being a 4.2 inning outing at Boston on April 17).
Apologies are in order for anyone who took my advice on that one; moving forward, Guthrie simply can't be trusted on the road. I should note that while I botched the pick, every player featured on "Spot D'jour" is tagged with a "Risk Factor" based on several factors, and Guthrie received "Moderate-High" status due to his road troubles and overall mediocrity.
Tomorrow's option, Randy Wells, has been fantastic through five starts this year, so lets just hope—for this blog's sake at least—that he can keep the good times rolling against Bronson Arroyo and the Cincinnati Reds.
Arroyo has managed seven wins so far this year, and to his credit, he has pitched well in those games. He's been terrible in defeat, and especially bad at home (7.58 ERA, 1.52 WHIP). Wells, however, isn't guaranteed great run support from the injury-riddled and underachieving Cubbies bats.
Wells is actually winless in his five starts, as his 1.69 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, and .211 BAA have earned him an unlucky 0-2 record. He also sports a 27:7 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 32 innings, so there's a lot to like about Wells so far.
Of course, he'll get shelled tomorrow now that I've cursed him, leading me to seriously contemplate this blog moving forward, in fear of fantasy baseball death threats, and even worse, attacks on my integrity as a fantasy baseball genius.
Nonetheless, he's worth a pickup. For the real risk-takers, I also like Livan Hernandez at the Nationals and rookie Antonio Bastardo at the Dodgers.